Daily Musings and Music of a Euromarket Professional

Uncomfortable as it may be, being aware of sitting on a time bomb shouldn't keep us from being able to laugh about it - and to listen to some music!

Daily musings of a euromarket professional

Friday 23 November 2012

23 Nov 2012 – “ Fly Like an Eagle ” (Steve Miller Band, 1976)

23 Nov 2012 – “ Fly Like an Eagle ” (Steve Miller Band, 1976)

Yet another light ROn close of the day, crowning a ROn of a week. Worries put aside on Greece (and Cyprus) and the Periphery (and the Fiscal Cliff). Sentiment data all for the better. Last week’s nightmare obviously obliterated. It’s not like things have really changed, though.
Fly like an Eagle – for those “Free Bird” of yesterday that made it through the night…
"Fly Like An Eagle" (Bunds 1,44% +1; Spain 5,6% -4; Stoxx 2552 +0,7%; EUR 1,296 +80)
No US session because of Thanksgiving Bird Killing. Shortened one to look forward to because of Black Friday (Natural Selection at work: Trampled over a television? Well, you had it coming...). Japan closed, too.
Asian session positive to close a positive week, most indices close to home, though. Taiwan ripping 3% on a push to have state-entities buy stocks (near repeated 3 YRS lows).
EU budget talks a miss, but side-line discussions on Greece seem to pan out with the Cyprus bail-out as well seemingly on track. So not a total waste of time in Brussels.
Don’t cry for me Argentina - appealing a U.S court ruling ordering it to pay USD 1.3bn to holdout bond investors.

French data once more surprisingly resilient with Biz Confidence rising to 88 (fcst 87 after 85) and Production Outlook strongly up to -40 (fcst -53 after rev. -55, which was the lowest since Mar 2011, ticking down from prior -52, but mostly down from -44 in Aug). Mood bottoming out. France confirmed at AA+ neg by S&P.
Spanish PPI stable at -0.1% MoM, +3.5% YoY (from prior +3.8%).

Markets opening on unchanged levels ahead of the IFO data. All unchanged, across the board. Totally unchanged, equities & Credit and EGBs.
German Bunds 1.43%, Spain 5.64%. EUR 1.289 after a high at 1.291 in earliest quotes.

Quite good IFO numbers with the Biz Climate up again over the 100-mark at 101.4 (fcst 99.5 after 100), Current Assessment at 108.1 (fcst 106.3 after 107.2) and Expectations at 95.2 (fcst 93 after 93.2). Obviously, as for yesterday’s PMI, what was thought to be about unchanged to just a little better has been too cautious and while everyone seems to agree that Q4 numbers will be weak, businesses don’t seem to hurt (yet). Or is it that Q4 expectations management has talked things so low that every bit of non-hurting news seems to shine. Still, IFO negative on Q4 after a resilient Q3 (confirmed +0.2% QoQ, +0.9% wda YoY and +0.4% nsa YoY).
In the meantime, the reaction to these numbers has been about nil. Bit of short-term Risk weakness, as Spanish bonds ticked down a little (+3).

No government supply. We will have EUR 3bn 12m bills out of Germany (last -0.0095%) on Monday, as well as the weekly French 3, 6 and 12m bills for EUR 6.8bn.
Monday will also see Belgium’s last auction for 2012 with up to EUR 3.2bn in 3.500% Jun 2017 (COB 0.98% and last 1.08% end of Oct), 4.000% Mar 2019 (COB 1.435%), 3.000% Sep 2019 (COB 1.640%) and 4.250% Sep 2022 (COB 2.290% and last 2.42% end of Oct).
Dutch 3 YRS on Tue, German 5 YRS on Wed. Italian and Spanish bills on Tue and Wed. Italian 2 YRS zeroes on Tue, bonds on Thu.

Midday levels show EGBs mostly unchanged, give or take. Spain eventually a tad softer after some S&P rating action on Spanish banks.
Bunds 1,42% (-1), OBLs at 0,42% (-1), BKOs -0,005% (-0,5). UST 1,67% (-1).
Spanish 2s 3,02% (unch), 10s 5,66% (+2). 2-10 YRS spread 264bp (+2).
Italian 2s 1,83% (-3), 10s 4,77% (-1). 2-10 YRS spread 294bp (+2).
Equities flat. Credit a little wider with Financials +3 (2%), given the a.m. Spanish bank downgrades.
EUR 1.290. Commodities unchanged.

Cyprus bail-out seemingly a done deal (There goes another EUR 17bn-wad).
EU budget not a done deal…

US cash open fine on initial healthy Black Friday sales estimates and catching up with yesterday’s European up-move, in turn pushing out Europe even higher. Yet another light ROn close of the day, crowning a ROn of the week.
EUR happily enjoying its new ROn indicator function, back to 01 Nov levels, over the 50d average and Fibo retracement from Summer to Fall. Next stop 1.315-1.317 area.

EGBs quite resilient given yet another ROn drag to the upside. Germany out, but just a wee bit. Soft Core actually tightening, pushed by the Periphery with Belgium getting nearer and nearer to France (+13), which in turn is closing at 72 to Bunds from 75 last Friday (and shrugging off Moody’s downgrade, spread-wise).
Strange bond resilience. Lofty equities. Credit about in line with the Crossover back through the 500-mark.
Great week for Spain, closing well through the 6%-mark, down 26bp on the week and with the Bund spread shrinking to 416 (from 454). 2 YRS through 3%.
Italy likewise in good shape with the 2 YRS finally through 2%.
Bunds closed at 1,44% (+1), OBLs at 0,44% (unch) and BKOs -0,002% (-0,2). UST at 1,69% (+1) COB.
Spanish 2s at 2,96% (-6), 10s at 5,60% (-4). 2-10 YRS spread 264bp (+2).
Italian 2s at 1,82% (-4), 10s at 4,75% (-3). 2-10 YRS spread 292bp (unch).
Commodities somehow joining into the groove, but rather reluctantly. Oil up a little. Gold retesting 1750-mark. Copper a tick better. No growth-euphoria out there….

Take-away: Yet another light ROn close of the day, crowning a ROn of a week. Worries put aside on Greece (and Cyprus) and the Periphery (and the Fiscal Cliff). Sentiment data all for the better. Last week’s nightmare obviously obliterated. It’s not like things have really changed, though.
Fly like an Eagle – for those “Free Bird” of yesterday that made it through the night…

Outlook: Need to check election results in Catalonia, although realistically independence seems a very far-away thing, if at all. Still, a strong support for Mas might just make life more difficult for the central government. Greek buy-back details (if). Light macro supply initially out of Europe: will mainly see if consumers are as upbeat (despite rising unemployment and austerity everywhere). Equities are seemingly en route to retest the post-Summer 2011 double-top about 2-2.5% away, as last week’s break to the downside didn’t materialize.
That is, if not… (paste any given possible worry or fundamental flaw) resurfaces…

European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx 2511/2444, DAX 7276/7060, CAC 3449/3400, MIB 15614/15032, IBEX 7848/7451.
US 100 & 200d averages: INDU 13130/12992, S&P 1406/1383, NASDAQ 3017/2985 with AAPL 100/200d at 626/597.
EUR: 50d 1.291, 100d 1.266 & 200d 1.280. Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273& 1.315, then 1.349 (50%). Jul 2012 to Sep rebound levels: 1.231 – 1.247 – 1.261 – 1.274 – 1.291 -1.317 .

New Issues from BNPP, following yesterday’s ING trade, with EUR 1.5bn 2 YRS FRNs at 3mE +43, as well as Italian utility A2A with EUR 750m 7 YRS at MS +325 (about Italy +50).
Tons of roadshow announcements (Air France, Lottomatica, Generali, Telenor, Bilfinger, KBC Pfanbriev, SNS, Eandis Rio Tinto), so the market will remain active.

Don’t miss the Shuffle Rewind over the weekend.

Closing levels:
10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,44% (+1); Luxembourg 1,55% (unch); Netherlands 1,69% (unch); Finland 1,69% (+1); Swaps 1,74% (unch); EU 1,78% (unch), Austria 1,84% (-2); EIB 1,94% (-1); EFSF 2,07% (unch); France 2,16% (-2); Belgium 2,29% (-4); Italy 4,75% (-3); Spain 5,60% (-4).

10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 11bp (-1); Netherlands 25bp (-1); Finland 25bp (unch); Swaps 30bp (-1); EU 34bp (-1); Austria 40bp (-3); EIB 50bp (-2); EFSF 63bp (-1); France 72bp (-3); Belgium 85bp (-5); Italy 331bp (-4); Spain 416bp (-5).

EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 48bp (-1,0); 5-10 YRS 83bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 61bp (unch).
2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,002% (-0,2) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,44% (unch).

Main -2 to 121 (-1,6% tighter); Financials -1 to 161 (-0,6% tighter); Cross -9 to 496 (-1,8% tighter).
Stoxx Futures at 2552 / +0,7% (from 2534) with S&P minis at 1402 (+0,7% from 1392, at European close).
VIX index at 15,1 after 15,3 yesterday same time.

Oil 88,2/111,0 (WTI/Brent) from 87,2/110,5 (+1,1%/+0,4%). Gold at 1748 after 1731 (+1,0%). Copper at 352 from 351 (+0,3%). CRB unchanged at EU COB at 298,0.
BDIY, up 6 ticks to 1090. Target 1162-high seen in July, post-Chinese New Year slide.

EUR 1,296 from 1,288

Greek guesstimate: Greek bonds stable at near tightest levels of 16.25% for 2023s and 13.50% for 2042s, 25 bp off yesterday’s tightest levels.
Need to see how that buy-back story pans out. Or if someone suddenly were to take offense at buying those off, realizing they’d come from hedge-funds…

All levels COB 17:30 CET

Fast-forward Macro and Events:
European end of month data drought.
Busy data Tuesday in the US. Need to see whether housing will really turn around the economy.
Govie supply: Mon Germany EUR 3bn 12m bills & France EUR 6.8bn 3 6 12m bills, final 2012 Belgium auction for up to EUR 3.2bn 2017 / 2019s / 2022. Tue EUR 3bn Dutch 3 YRS, Spanish 3 & 6m bills, Italian 2 YRS zeroes. Wed EUR 3bn OBLs in Germany & Italian bills. Thu Italian bonds.
US Tue $35bn 2 YRS, Wed $35bn 5 YRS and Thu $29bn 7 YRS

EC: Tue OECD outlook; Wed M3; Thu Biz Climate and Consumer Conf; Fri CPI
GE: Mon Consumer Conf fcst 6.2 after 6.3; Wed CPI fcst 2% after 2.1%; Thu Unemployment; Fri Retail Sales
FR: Tue Consumer Conf fcst 83 after 84; Wed Unemployment; Fri PPI and Consumer Spending
Italy: Mon Consumer Conf; Tue Wages; Thu Biz Conf; Fri Unemployment, CPI & PPI
Spain: Mon Mortgage; Tue Budget Balance; Wed Retail Sales fcst -10.7% after -10.9%; Thu Housing Permits; Fri CPI
US: Mon Dallas & Chicago FED; Tue Durable Goods, Case Schiller, House Px & Consumer Confidence; Wed New Home Sales & Beige Book; Thu Q3 GDP 2nd revision, Claims, Pending Home Sales; Fri Personal Income & Spending, NAPM and Chicago PM.

Click link under title or below for today’s musical support:
Fly like an Eagle – for those “Free Bird” of yesterday that made it through the night…
In 2011, more than 248.5 million turkeys were raised. More than 219 million were consumed in the United States. We estimate that 46 million of those turkeys were eaten at Thanksgiving, 22 million at Christmas and 19 million at Easter.

And for those Steve Miller and Jeans fans: 501

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