Daily Musings and Music of a Euromarket Professional

Uncomfortable as it may be, being aware of sitting on a time bomb shouldn't keep us from being able to laugh about it - and to listen to some music!

Daily musings of a euromarket professional

Monday 19 November 2012

19 Nov 2012 – “ Rip And Tear” (L.A. Guns, 1989)

19 Nov 2012 – “ Rip And Tear” (L.A. Guns, 1989) 
Music Link

European equities ripping and squeezed after Friday’s dismal close. Credit the same and, as more often than not lately, overdoing the equity move. EGBs rather muted with the Core pretty much where it stood throughout last week – with exception of Friday afternoon. Spain back on the radar. Europe still under US influence. Huge relief. From what and why exactly still needs to be seen. In the meantime: Rip & Tear!
"Rip And Tear" (Bunds 1,35% +3; Spain 5,88% +2; Stoxx 2495 +2,7%; EUR 1,281 +110)
One has to hate these sudden market reversals, as on Friday evening: You finish typing, you edit, markets are in the doldrums, Europe is closing on the low of the day, of the week, on the lowest since the post-ECB 06 Sep, the NASDAQ just broke the 50% of the Oct 2011-Oct 2012 upmove… and suddenly Boehner starts hinting that ways could be found to avoid Fiscal Cliff hysteria and US equities shoot up 1% and pretty much close there (despite another intermediate correction into negative territory in the course of the afternoon). Bah. Real-time writer’s fate. Anyhow, the European session closed badly, but the market hysteria focal point having shifted to the US and Periphery and Greek issues having (temporarily) become secondary ones, we spent most of the second half of last week trailing the US.
Asia closing mixed to start the week with Japan ripping for a third day in a row (+1.4%. That’s 5.5% in 3 sessions) on bizarre promises of 3% inflation and growth. 3%???? Why not 5% or 6%, while at it? Last time such levels were seen was in the early 90s. China juuuuust flat, after having traded mostly in negative territory and helped by gapping European futures. Shanghai did trade through the 2000-mark today (with 2004 its lowest closing low). Korea up a small percent and Oz half.

No major weekend news. Middle East situation on-going. ECB Asmussen stating the obvious when saying that further support will be needed to get Greece through. OSI discussion looming. Lagarde to take a stand for the IMF tomorrow at the Eurogroup. No major figures to start the day.

Unsurprisingly, European equities played catch-up at open trying to close the about 1% gap to the US with indices up about 0.9% half an hour into the cash session. Credit snapping back 3.5% tighter (5-7 points, 24 for the Cross).
EGBs, unsurprisingly, too, giving up the last afternoon’s sluggish 2bp gain garnered in Friday (and they had to be pushed real hard to do so) with Bunds back to the 1.34% level on which we closed from Friday 10 days ago to last Thursday.
Soft Core a tick better. Periphery a tick or two tighter on “Risk On” (well, catch-up) with Italian 10s at 4.85%, Spain 100bp wider.
Commodities mixed with Oil up 1-1.25% from Friday’s close as the rocket Ping-Pong in the Middle East hasn’t stopped. Gold 0.75% firmer. Copper 1.5%. Note that the CRB closed just a wee-bit higher on Friday. EUR back to 1.276.

Italian figures well below consensus with Sep Industrial Orders down 4% MoM (fcst -1% after +0.7%, rev. +0.6%), that’s -12.8% YoY (after -9%) and Industrial Sales down 4.2% MoM (fcst -2.1% after +2.9% rev. +2.7%) or -5.4% YoY.
EZ Construction -1.4% MoM (after +0.6%) / -2.6% YoY.

Bills-only auction day with the Dutch issuing EUR 1.3bn 3m and EUR 1.1bn 6m at -0.029% and -0.020% (from -0.030 and -0.012% 2 weeks ago) and the weekly French bill auction for a total of EUR 6.6bn with EUR 4bn 3m at -0.016% (from -0.014%), EUR 1.4bn 6m at -0.009% (after -0.002%) and EUR 1.6bn 12m at +0.026% (after +0.019%).
Tomorrow we’ll have EUR 4.5bn 12 and 18m Spanish bills (2.823% and 3.022% last month), followed by EUR 3.5bn 3, 5 & 9 YRS BONOs on Thursday. 10 YRS Bund increase on Wednesday next to Portuguese bills. Rather light week. All eyes on Spain…
Will have a new syndicated EFSF 3 YRS tomorrow (June 2015 launched this year at MS +18 is quoted 0.36% MS -9.5; Jul 2016 is a 0.605% MS flat. Pitched around MS flat / -2 seems a rather generous initial offer). Tomorrow as well EUR 2bn EFSF 6m (last -0.024%).

Rather gloomy Bundesbank monthly. Diverse comments whether or not the Greek question will be settled tomorrow, depending whether from possible paymasters or bystanders. SMP and Banking Union oversight still far from done.
Spanish bad loans still soaring to 10.7% / EUR 182bn in Sep (from 10.5% in Aug. Number was at 9% / EUR 156bn in May). Still for Rajoy the worst is over and Spain’s problem is not its deficit, but affordable funding (…). In the meantime, this did put a break on Spanish bonds.

Not much more to report. Some more traction in equities (adding another 0.5% to +1.5%), trading by noon near or even above Friday’s highs. Credit tightening in some 5-6%.
Periphery initially tighter, then wider, then a tick tighter. 2 YRS Spain on the heavy side at +8 to 3.30% on bad loans.
Bunds 1,35% (+3), OBLs 0,37% (+3), (New) BKOs -0,024% (+1,5). UST 1,61% (+5).
Spanish 2s 3,30% (+8), 10s 5,85% (-1). Spanish 2-10s 255bp (-9).
Italian 2s 2,06% (unch), 10s 4,86% (-1). Italian 2-10s 280bp (-1).
Not much more on the commodities front with Brent past the 110-mark. EUR 1.277.

No early US figures. US cash opening up a good 1% (with UST pat at 1.62%) and pushing good for another half per cent in European equities – and pushing.
Existing Home Sales mixed, as over consensus, but with revised prior data at 4.79m (fcst 4.74m after 4.75m revised down 4.69m / +2.1% against a forecast of -0.2% after -1.7% revised -2.9%). Hmmm… Half glass.
Equities nevertheless well over Thursday’s highs (and Wednesday’s close). Huge relief. From what and why exactly still needs to be seen.

Mirror comment of Friday: Wow! Seemingly a pure equity play. Europe closing HOD. Sh** Majestic close (despite the US peaking for the most of the afternoon). France especially strong (up 3%).
EGBs , which had a hard time following down equities (yield-wise) last week, unsurprisingly on the heavier side. 40 ticks in Bunds from the close seem tame, regarding the equity squeeze. Total Disconnect. Periphery not catching the ROn train, and likewise pushed wider.
Bunds closed at 1,35% (+3), OBLs at 0,37% (+3) and BKOs -0,024% (+1,5) with UST at 1,62% (+6). Spanish 2s at 3,30% (+8), 10s at 5,88% (+2). Spanish 2-10s 258bp (-6).
Italian 2s at 2,07% (+1), 10s at 4,90% (+3). Italian 2-10s 283bp (+2).
Commodities joining in the general ROn correlation, although fundamentally only explainable for Oil (up 2.5% on average). CRB still sideways.

Take-away: European equities ripping and squeezed after Friday’s dismal close. Credit the same and, as more often than not lately, overdoing the equity move. EGBs rather muted with the Core pretty much where it stood throughout last week – with exception of Friday afternoon. Spain back on the radar. Europe still under US influence. Huge relief. From what and why exactly still needs to be seen. In the meantime: Rip & Tear!

Outlook: More of the same? No real European data outside German PPI fcst +0.1% after +0.3%. Eurogroup. Spailout & Grexit Otherwise, will trail the US wherever to…
US Housing Starts and Permits. Fiscal Cliff. US close.

European 50d & 100d: EStoxx 2514/2435 [traded Friday in the close] (50d/100d), DAX 7285/7035 [seriously broken Fri in the close], CAC 3453/3392 [broken Thursday], MIB 15683/14991 [broken Fri], IBEX 7857/7412 [safe].
US 100d& 200d [broken for all indices] for INDU 13123/12993, SPX 1404/1382 and NASDAQ 3016/2984, as Apple-challenged (200d 596).
EUR: 100d 1.265 & 200d 1.281. Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273 & 1.315. Jul 2012 to Sep rebound levels: 1.231 – 1.247 – 1.2611.274 – 1.291.

Mixed New Issue supply with Belfius issuing the first-ever Belgian covered Bonds (Pfandbrieven) at for EUR 1.25bn 5 YRS at MS +5 (about 30 over BGB), Poland increased its latest Jul 2024 benchmark by EUR 750m at MS +135 (from +143 early Oct). The German City-State of Hamburg raised EUR 500m May 2018 at MS +3. Volvo issued EUR 300m 7 YRS at MS +115.

Closing levels:
10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,35% (+3); Luxembourg 1,49% (+2); Netherlands 1,61% (+3); Finland 1,63% (+3); Swaps 1,68% (+2); EU 1,73% (+3), Austria 1,78% (+1); EIB 1,89% (+3); EFSF 2,01% (+3); France 2,07% (unch); Belgium 2,26% (+1); Italy 4,90% (+3); Spain 5,88% (+2).

10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 14bp (-1); Netherlands 26bp (unch); Finland 28bp (unch); Swaps 33bp (-1); EU 38bp (unch); Austria 43bp (-2); EIB 54bp (unch); EFSF 66bp (unch); France 72bp (-3); Belgium 91bp (-2); Italy 355bp (unch); Spain 453bp (-1).

EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 46bp (unch); 5-10 YRS 82bp (+1,0) 10-30 YRS 61bp (unch).
2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,024% (+1,5) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,37% (+3).

Main -8 to 131 (-5,8% tighter); Financials -11 to 177 (-5,9% tighter); Cross -35 to 537 (-6,1% tighter).
Stoxx Futures at 2495 / +2,7% (from 2429) with S&P minis at 1379 (+2,6% from 1344, at European close).
VIX index at 15,9 after 18,3 yesterday same time.

Oil 89,1/111,4 (WTI/Brent) from 86,9/108,2 (+2,5%/+2,9%). Gold at 1734 after 1711 (+1,3%). Copper at 354 from 343 (+3,2%). CRB at EU COB 294,0 from 293,0 (+0,3%).
BDIY, up 18 to 1054 (+1.7%). Up and up and higher.

EUR 1,281 from 1,270

Greek guesstimate: Greek bonds unsurprisingly pat at 17.25% for 2023s and 14.50% for 2042s. Need to see what comes up tomorrow.

All levels COB 17:30 CET

Fast-forward Macro and Events:
Be warned that there isn’t much in terms of European data until Thursday, which will be PMI day, generally seen juuust a little better. EU FM meeting on tonight and Eurogroup on Tuesday to settle Greece… or probably not.
Wednesday crowded data dump ahead of Thu 22 Thanksgiving holiday. Black Friday.
Light week auction week: EUR 4.5bn 12 & 18m Spanish bills tomorrow; Wed 10 YRS Bund increase and Portuguese bills; EUR 3.5bn 2015 2017 & 2021 BONOs on Thursday. All eyes on Spain, thus.
Talking of which, elections in Catalonia will take place coming Sunday.

EZ: Thu Comp / Manu / Services PMI last 45.7, fcst 45.5 after 45.4 and 46 unch, EZ Consumer Conf fcst -25.5 after -25.7
GE: Tue PPI fcst +0.1% MoM (after +0.3%); Thu PMI Manu fcst 46 after 46 Services fcst 48.3 after  48.4; Fri 23 Final GDP, IFO Nov Biz Climate fcst 99.5 after last, Current fcst 106.3 after 107.3, Expectations fcst 93 after 93.2
FR: Thu PMI Manu fcst 44 after 43.7, Services fcst 45 after 44.6; Fri Biz Conf fcst 87 after 85
Italy: Fri Retail Sales last +0.% MoM
Spain: Wed Trade; Fri PPI
US: Tue Housing Starts fcst 840k after 872k and Permits fcst 864k after 894k; Wed PMI fcst 51 after 51.3, Claims, U Michigan, Leading Indicators. Wed Thanksgiving

Click link under title or below for today’s musical support:
Rip and Tear
Rockin' the house down
Taking the dare

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