Shuffle Rewind 22-26 Oct " Road To Nowhere " (Talking Heads, 1985)

Shuffle Rewind 22-26 Oct " Road To Nowhere " (Talking Heads, 1985)
Music Link

This week in review (compared to Fri 19 Oct COB):
Click on day for related post, on title for song.

The week ending 19 Oct had been seriously spacy, very optimistic, flying high in thin air. It seemed many thought about “Lucy In The Sky with Diamonds", skipping news that tended to be on the bad side and hailing days with no news at all, as being good days. The whole thing kinda ended last Friday 19 Oct with a last dizzy trip of  “Space Truckin'" (Bunds 1,6% -3; Spain 5,35% +3; Stoxx 2536% -1,5%; EUR 1,302) that wasn’t good for European Risk and plainly bad for the US.
Monday 22 Oct wasn’t that bad, at least initially. Despite nothing really positive in the news, the morning was hailed as good and Risk was upbeat, trying to unwind from US gravity – until the US opened with negative real economy news. The day was mostly boring, but the come down was hard as a "Hurricane Heart Attack" (Bunds 1,62% +2; Spain 5,48% +13; Stoxx 2527% -0,4%; EUR 1,306) and Spain suddenly snapped wider. While the US managed to wring out an about flat close, courtesy of renewed “Apple will fix it”-hopes, Tuesday morning still felt hung-over and Risk went rapidly on the slide: Spain, despite an okay bill auction, but who cares?, remained under pressure. Equities remained under pressure. Credit, too. Pressure morphed to a Risk sell-off in the course of the day with a very weak US open adding to the gloom. Was this already "Lights Out" (Bunds 1,58% -4; Spain 5,6% +12; Stoxx 2475% -2,1%; EUR 1,296)? Then again, markets went up the previous week seamlessly with no trigger and thus had room to slide the same way. Eventually, only down some 2.5% since Friday’s close at that point, there was room for more… And yet lights remained flickering in Europe during most of Wednesday’s session: After ticking up on Chinese PMI and then trading down on dismal European PMI figures, markets felt that “enough was enough” and went for the upside. Still, somehow, one has to come back to "Planet Earth" (Bunds 1,57% -1; Spain 5,55% -5; Stoxx 2485% +0,4%; EUR 1,296). Again, Thursday started with (an eventually failed) upside attempt in Risk, despite no fundamentally better news or so. But somehow, things petered out and the close was soggy and bad-spirited, certainly in need of "Karma Police" (Bunds 1,57% +0; Spain 5,59% +4; Stoxx 2481% -0,2%; EUR 1,295). Bad Karma day, ending with Apple losing some seeds and disappointing. Hence a Friday open that was more on the defensive side, although in controlled manner. The day closed about ok, mainly thanks to government-spending boosting US Q3 GDP, but we’ll still call it "Doom and Gloom" (Bunds 1,54% -3; Spain 5,57% -2; Stoxx 2494% +0,5%; EUR 1,294), because other news were bleak and because we like the song. Eventually, US equities just closed flat. Not impressive after these growth numbers... Gloom. Going nowhere...

Uhhhh. It just couldn’t last. Risk had been pushed higher and higher in anticipation, but a combination of reality-check, rather unsettling Q3 earnings and renewed Spanish jitters just made players come down hard from their previous week’s high flying exercise.
Well, I had voiced my surprise of the market’s resilience and complacency in an environment with nothing fundamentally new nor changed (from last week: “As Q3 earnings are published, a reality check will need to take place between levels attained on liquidity dope (All is good!) and where to climb from here on down to earth matters like earnings and profits. Or growth…”), so this week’s action seems more understandable to me.

Nothing new. Spailout OMT still not in play. Greece, haggling not over. Earnings rather bad. PMIs dismal. Central Banks on hold, as everything is on the table, at least for the moment.

Core EGB felt heavy last week and felt heavy for most of this week, too. If it weren’t for the equity correction, where would we be?
Ok, the auction went fine in Germany, but that’s about it.  Germany down 6 on the week (after softening 15bp last week) is no trail-blazer. Obviously the US save-haven (3 tighter from 1.79%) bid has gone softer, too, which explains the feeling of the Hard Core trying to accelerate with the brakes still on. Chances are that if Risk Off continues, there’ll be a lurch forward.
Same pictures for the Hard Core, recouping about half the previous week’s losses.
Agencies still in catch up mode with the EFSF (best performer last week) still tightening and now through France (-7 after +3) and this week the EIB on the run (-9), trying to tackle the 2%-mark.

Last week, BONOs were all the rage, because Moody’s didn’t junk them. Ah?! Back to reality. Spailout still holding out. Spanish regions junked and with no access to the market anymore. End of the Spanish honeymoon: Low was hit in 10s Thursday 10 days ago at 5.32%, +3bp last Friday, +13bp to open the week, another 12bp on Tue, the sole correction of the week on Wednesday (which had an unwarranted Risk On spirit) with BONOs tightening back 5bp to 5.55%, pretty much lost back on Thu to 5.59% and softening further on Fri morning, before reverting and ending the week at 5.57%, 22 bp wider.
Performance since final Summer weakness had us close at 6.86% end of Aug. 5.61% (-125) by Fri 07 Sep, 5.76% 14 Sep, 5.73% 21 Sep, 5.91% 28 Sep, 5.67% 05 Oct, 5.60% 12 Oct and especially 5.35% at the end of last week.
We stressed the importance of the 5.50%-mark last week, as being the level that used to be the upper end of Spanish stress, before things went overboard. Very obviously, that level remains key and this week has confirmed that it might become the floor to break.
The 375bp spread to Germany, down 40bp last week (on 15bp softer Bunds and 25bp firmer BONOs) has vanished and we’re back above 400.
Italy tightened by 20bp last week (piggybacking Spain’s 25bp) and widened 12 this week. Bit of outperformance, but it is an illusion to think that Italy’s case is different from Spain’s. Maybe better, but it won’t be able to leave the Periphery orbit.

EUR swap curve just slightly tighter over the week, with 2-10s at 133 from 135. Flattening rather evenly spread with 2 bp on 2-5s and 1bp in 5-10s as well as 10-30s.

Credit giving back last week’s performance (4% in Main, 8% in Financials), and some, with the main ending at +7 (5.7% wider) and Financials at +12 (7.4% wider). Cross well back over the 500-mark (at 535), through which it closed symbolically last week  (+40 or 8.1%).

Equities on a slide: last Fri -1.5%, Mon -0.4%, Tue -2.1%, Wed +0.4%, Thu -0.2%... Friday eventually +0.5%. Fickle and nervous rebounds, but never lasting long. Closing the week down 1.7% from last Friday- thanks to the US GDP.
EStoxx trying to stick around 50d average right on 2503 (through), as for the DAX 7227 (on it), CAC 3459 (through), MIB 15622 (through) & IBEX 7771 (on it).
To complete average levels: 100d for INDU 13087 and SPX 1397, hence not that far. NASDAQ 100d 3007 (through) and 200d 2975, Apple-challenged (200d 588).
Technical markets in absence of fundamentals (few again next week).

Commodities got trashed, essentially at the beginning of the week: Oil, especially with WTI down 6.3% (with an inventory overhang). Growth slow-down jitters taking its toll on Copper (-3.3%) like on the broader CRB (-3.6%). Gold doing about ok in that environment. Had a brief stint below 1700, but eventually hung in there (-0.7% on the week).

Small week in New Issues with the EU sticking out with its EUR 3bn 15 YRS. Total of EUR 10.8bn in 14 EUR deals. Spain delivering EUR 1bn ICO 5 YRS (struggling at SPGB +65, half-placed domestically, some with the leads), but pulling a Madrid 2020 increase, despite initial talks of an 8% area yield. Italy faring better with EUR 1.25bn 10 YRS LT2 for UniCredit (stunning) and EUR 750m for UBI in 3 YRS. Some EUR 1.25bn for German SSA names, EUR 1.8bn for German, French and Dutch corporates. Standard Chart well accepted with a EUR 1.25bn 5 YRS senior deal.

Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.

Taking next week off, so you’ll need to loop this month’s songs, if you need.

On the week (compared to Fri 19 Oct COB):
10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,54% (-6); Luxembourg 1,64% (-4); Finland 1,76% (-8); Netherlands 1,78% (-4); Swaps 1,81% (-3); EU 1,89% (-4); Austria 2,01% (-1); EIB 2,05% (-9); EFSF 2,18% (-6); France 2,25% (+4); Belgium 2,45% (+5); Italy 4,89% (+12); Spain 5,57% (+22).

10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 10bp (+2); Finland 22bp (-2); Netherlands 24bp (+2); Swaps 27bp (+3); EU 35bp (+2);  Austria 47bp (+5); EIB 51bp (-14); EFSF 64bp (unch); France 71bp (+10); Belgium 91bp (+11); Italy 335bp (+18); Spain 403bp (+28).

EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 51bp (-1,0); 5-10 YRS 82bp (-1,0) 10-30 YRS 58bp (unch).
2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,048% (-6) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,54% (-9), on the week. with UST at 1,77% (-2)
Swiss 2-years tightening to -0.215% from -0.20%, but underperforming German Schätze.

Main at 129 from 122 (5,7% wider); Financials at 175 after 163 (7,4% wider). Cross at 535 from 495 (8.1% wider).
Stoxx Futures at 2494 / -1,7% from 2536 with S&P minis at 1403 / -2,4% from 1438, at European COB last week.
VIX index at 18,5 after 15,7 last week.

Oil 86,1/109,3 (WTI/Brent) from 91,8/112,0 (-6,3%/-2,4%). Gold at 1714 after 1726 (-0,7%). Copper at 355 from 367 (-3,3%) . CRB closes 298,0 from 309,0 (-3,6%).
BDY finally overcame the 4-digit mark last Friday, up 9.1% to 1010 on the week. Action more subdued this week and closing at 1049 (up 3.9%), although we had an impressive 6.9% spike to 1109 on Tuesday.
Summer rebound peak had been 1162 early July (10.8% away). Feb low of 647 (38% away). Sep low was 661.

EUR 1,294 after 1,302 last Friday

Greek guesstimate: Closing the week at 17% and 15% (in yield) in 2023s and 2042s, up 75bp. SOMEHOW.GREECE.WILL.BE.SAVED.-credo seems to lose a little steam here, especially after last weeks’ furious progression. The discussions and haggling seem to drag on, Spanish-style, with nothing concrete popping up – outside the general view that things won’t be manageable without more cash.

All levels Friday COB 17:30 CET

Upcoming Macro Data:
End of month. Low numbers supply. Final PMIs on Friday. Of course, US NFP on Friday after last month’s buzz.

Note that parts of Europe will be closed for the Thu 01 Nov All Saints holiday, leading to patchy liquidity, probably bridged into the weekend. Most business will thus be squashed into the first 3 days with some recurrent long end supply.
French EUR 7.5bn OAT auction (2019, 2022, 2035) pushed forward to Wednesday (from normally Thu), coinciding with EUR 2bn 30 YRS Bunds, so beware of the long end. Will have Belgium as well auctioning some EUR 3.5bn in 2032 and 2035 OLOs, next to 5 and 10 YRS on Monday. Italy in for EUR 4bn 5s and EUR 3bn 10s on Tue. No supply Thu and Fri.

Trading will remain rather technical, subject to Periphery rumours and jitters.

EZ: Tue Biz Climate Indicators
GE: Mon CPI fcst +2% after 2.1% Tue Unemployment fcst 6.9% after 6.8%, Retail Sales fcst +0.5% after rev. +0.1% MoM. Fri MfG PMI 45.7
FR: Wed PPI fcst +2.5% after rev. 2.5% YoY, Cons Spending fcst -0.1% after -0.8% MoM. Fri MfG PMI 43.5
Italy: Wed Unemployment last 10.7%, CPI last 3.4% YoY, PPI last 3% YoY. Fri MfG PMI 45.7, Budget
Spain: Mon Retail Sales last -2.1% YoY. Tue GDP fcst -0.4% QoQ after -0.4% / -1.7% YoY. Wed Housing Permits. Fri PMI
US: Mon Personal Income and Spending fcst +0.4% after +0.1% and +0.6% after +0.5%. Tue Case Shiller House PX. Cons Conf fcst 72 after 70.3. Wed NAPM, Chicago PM. Thu Claims. Final PMI. ISM. Construction spending.
Ch: Thu final PMIs

Click link under title or below for today’s musical support:
Going nowhere...
Music Link

http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com

Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.

26 Oct 2012 – “ Doom and Gloom ” (The Rolling Stones, 2012)

26 Oct 2012 – “ Doom and Gloom ” (The Rolling Stones, 2012)
Music Link

The fact that yesterday’s US close was slightly positive, roughly +0.25% on average, is a detail, as Apple disappointed. So back to charts, in expectations of an S&P below 1400 (as right away the case in futures): INDU 100d 13.080 (close 13.104) and S&P 1.396 (close 1.413). Ok, noted. Note that the UST 7 YRS auction was a dud, in line with the recurrent heaviness of USTs (and Bunds) this week. B/C weakest since May 2009.
Asian session weak across the board (but had been rather outperforming the last couple of days), roughly between -1.25% and -1.75%.
Overnight news, next to the Apple getting seedless, were Fitch denying, of course, yesterday’s US downgrade rumours (as we expected) as that won’t happen before 2013 (but will happen then, for sure) as well as S&P lowering some French banks on (unsurprisingly) “the ongoing euro-zone crisis, a more protracted recession across Europe, and lower domestic-growth prospects” as well as  “potentially limited, but still noteworthy, impact from an ongoing correction in the housing market.”
Finally, the Stones played an impromptu concert before 700 guests in Paris and their new single sounds pretty much like the good old Stones. The 350 tickets available were sold for EUR 15 each, which is a nice gesture in times of austerity. Don’t be jealous of me, I wasn’t there either, but, hell, this must have been fun.
Oh, and Greece just needs some EUR 30bn, spread who knows how, over how long and certainly no one know from whom, to keep the ball rolling.

German Confidence index at 6.3 (fcst 5.9 unchanged, rev. 6.1) a blessing to kick off the day. Likewise falling Import Prices in Germany at -0.7% MoM (fcst +0.3 after 1.3%), 1.8% YoY after 3.2%. Then again, that’s a mixed blessing, as someone else makes less money here. Most energy-related anyway.
French Consumer Confidence ticking down to 84 after 85, as expected. Had ticked up to 91 in May from a 12m low at 81 in Feb. But then French consumers are chronically depressed and the post-2009 average is at 86.2 anyway. Gloom. French quarterly Biz Demand survey better at -21 from -24, rev. -25 in July, knowing that this was only beaten in early 2009 lately. Spanish Q3 unemployment even the tick worse than expected at 25.02% (fcst 25% after 24.063%), just to be able to write “now over 25%”. Italian Biz Confidence softer at 87.6 (fcst 88.7 after 88.3), no rebound. Gloom. Eco Sentiment better, though, at 76.6 after 75.5, rev. 76.

Fairly rough open in Europe, although pre-market future quotes were more punishing. Eventually, just a mild Risk Off picture painted with Bunds and EGBs about 1 tighter and the Periphery 4-5 wider across the curve. Equities down 0.5%, having tested lower earlier. Credit out 2-3 ticks. Commodities slightly softer only. EUR at 1.293 close to COB levels.
Mid-morning picture still in ROff with Germany really tightening in (-4) and the Periphery really widening (+7) and equities really testing lower and Credit wider.

Italy sold the targeted EUR 3bn 2 YRS zeros at 2.397% (after 2.532% for EUR 3.9bn on 25 Sep). Rather bespoke auctions, disciplined primary dealer group. Same B/C of 1.65 as the last time (for a smaller size). Still, levels are lower and are coming back (finally) to levels already seen this year (2.35% in March), knowing that these were post LTRO and the lowest since the crisis begun end of 2010 (2.31% paid in Nov 2010, before steadily rising thereafter, hitting 7.81% in Nov 2011). Had EUR 1bn in ILBs as well.
Good for a sigh of relief, but no more. Italian 2s stuck at 2.28% (+2) nevertheless, but still better than their Spanish peers at 3.12% (+10). Note that Italian 2s never managed to get through 2% for real and are drifting wider since.

ECB Asmussen speech with 2 interesting points: First, geo-financial, with China bubbling, especially in sub-sovereign financing (“We know how this ends…”). Gloom. Second, aid request will not trigger automatic OMT buying. Hence, the ECB is not an ATM and the ECB council will discuss amounts and timing of intervention, which kind of harks back to my impression that the ECB stand has hardened of late. The longer Client #1 is playing coy, the more time there is to make sure loopholes and back-pedalling possibilities can be avoided. Doom.

Moody’s on Central Banks just buying time and expecting another 3 years of “costly, painful adjustments” for the EZ.

Late morning seeing some balancing out. Usual endorphin-kick after the initial pain. Equities catching back some ground. Periphery one bp or two on the back of the Italian auction.

Endorphins not working that well today. Midday picture rather poor, confirming overall Risk Off: Equities back to around morning lows at -0.75%, Credit as well on morning prints (1.5-3% softer).
Periphery out by 7 in 10s (“only” one would add, considering Spanish 2s performance). Italian 2s not holding the CTZ auction promises. Hard Core EGBs as firm as Bunds. Soft Core a touch back.
Bunds closed 1,52% (-5), OBLs at 0,53% (-5), BKOs 0,051% (-2,8). UST 1,77% (-3)
Spanish 2s 3,16% (+14) and 10s 5,65% (+6). Spanish 2-10s 249bp (-8).
Italian 2s 2,33% (+7) and 10s 4,92% (+7). Italian 2-10s unchanged at 259bp.
Oil unchanged from European COB, Gold 0.7% softer (looking back to 1700), likewise Copper.  EUR sliding through the 29-handle on ROff.
No major earnings release to rock the boat (Merck ok, Goodyear not). European equities turning flat ahead of US figures in solo movement on no specific news.

Key US data in form of advanced Q3 GDP at +2.0% QoQ (fcst 1.8% after +1.3%). Q3 Personal Consumption at 2.0% (fcst +2.1% after 1.6%), triggered a short-lived 0.3% spike in equities, but the detail analysis was less palatable with Federal Spending up 9.6%, adding 0.72% to the GDP figure. Note that exports declined 1.6%, for the first time since Q1/2009 and imports 0.2% (from +5.3% and +1.8% in Q2). Saving rate down to 3.7% from 4%. Biz investments slowing and -1.3%. People are indeed buying iPhones – but not enough.
Had some wobbly up and downs and ups, as people were chewing over the data. Eventually good for 0.+75% on stops from pre-figure levels, as taking out immediate 100d test in US futures, but bond reaction muted. Bunds down 25cts. UST out by less than 2bp. Giving as ell a positive nudge to Periphery bonds.
US cash open around flat worse another burst in European equities. Michigan Consumer Sentiment dipping to 82.6 (fcst 83 after 83.1). No more immediate response than US equities treading water on flat opening levels (hence Wed + 0.25%). Everything then moving in sync, tick up, tick down. Good traction on EUR on Risk On sentiment. And Apple? Mostly unchanged, trading in a -/+ $5 ranging around its closing level…

Spain paring losses on presentation showing an increase in secondary volume and some increase in foreign holdings, as well as supportive IMF comments on the fact that the Bank MOU schedule is in line. Wink, Greece. Talking of which, Schaueble has doubt it has met its commitments (…).

European stamina running out of ammunition with US indices turning red and the INDU under its 100d average.

Better Risk close in Europe, but better EGB close, too. All is good? Or undecided. Good comeback in Spain, Italy lagging throughout the afternoon. France lagging, as so often lately (Belgium now just +20).
Bunds closed at 1,54% (-3), OBLs at 0,54% (-4) and BKOs 0,048% (-3,1) with UST at 1,77% (-3)
Spanish 2s at 3,02% (unch), 10s at 5,57% (-2). Spanish 2-10s 255bp (-2).
Italian 2s at 2,26% (unch), 10s at 4,89% (+4). Italian 2-10s 264bp (+5).
Note the divergence between Credit (wider) and equities.
Commodities eventually better off in the afternoon with Oil rebounding. Gold stable. EUR 1.294, off highs, off lows.

European equities still nervous and fickle with EStoxx trying to stick around 50d average right on 2503 (through), as for the DAX 7227 (on it), CAC 3459 (through), MIB 15622 (through) & IBEX 7771 (through).
To complete average levels: 100d for INDU 13087 (on it at European COB) and SPX 1397, hence not that far. NASDAQ 100d 3007 (through) and 200d 2975 (on it), Apple-challenged (200d 588).
Technical markets in absence of fundamentals (few again next week).

Take-away: If it wasn’t because the government sponsorship doping Q3 US GDP, we wouldn’t have much on the bright side. European equities still desperate to shoot up at any given reason, go up fast every time, trading off lower and then speeding up. Feels like to many fickle shorts and too many uncomfortable longs at the same time. Safe-haven better bid after days of hanging in there. Spain unsolved. Holding ok, for once, no squeeze, no sell off. Markets uneasy after round-tripping back to OMT / QE unleash levels and no follow-up stimuli to be seen.

Outlook for next week: End of month. Low numbers supply. Final PMIs on Friday. Of course, US NFP on Friday after last month’s buzz.
Note that parts of Europe will be closed for the Thu 01 Nov All Saints holiday, leading to patchy liquidity, probably bridged into the weekend. Most business will thus be squashed into the first 3 days with some recurrent long end supply.
French EUR 7.5bn OAT auction (2019, 2022, 2035) pushed forward to Wednesday (from normally Thu), coinciding with EUR 2bn 30 YRS Bunds, so beware of the long end. Will have Belgium as well auctioning some EUR 3.5bn in 2032 and 2035 OLOs, next to 5 and 10 YRS on Monday. Italy in for EUR 4bn 5s and EUR 3bn 10s on Tue. No supply Thu and Fri.

Nada in New Issues to close the week. Small week anyway with the EU sticking out with its EUR 3bn 15 YRS. Total of EUR 10.8bn in 14 EUR deals. Spain delivering EUR 1bn ICO 5 YRS (struggling at SPGB +65, half-placed domestically, some with the leads), but pulling a Madrid 2020 increase, despite initial talks of an 8% area yield. Italy faring better with EUR 1.25bn 10 YRS LT2 for UniCredit (stunning) and EUR 750m for UBI in 3 YRS. Some EUR 1.25bn for German SSA names, EUR 1.8bn for German, French and Dutch corporates. Standard Chart well accepted with a EUR 1.25bn 5 YRS senior deal.

Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.

Don’t miss the Shuffle Rewind over the weekend.
Taking next week off, so you’ll need to loop this month’s songs, if you need.

Closing levels:
10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,54% (-3); Luxembourg 1,64% (-2); Finland 1,76% (-3); Netherlands 1,78% (-3); Swaps 1,81% (-5); EU 1,89% (-2), Austria 2,01% (-2); EIB 2,05% (-5); EFSF 2,18% (-2); France 2,25% (unch); Belgium 2,45% (-2); Italy 4,89% (+4); Spain 5,57% (-2).

10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 10bp (+1); Finland 22bp (unch); Netherlands 24bp (unch); Swaps 27bp (-2); EU 35bp (+1); Austria 47bp (+1); EIB 51bp (-2); EFSF 64bp (+1); France 71bp (+3); Belgium 91bp (+1); Italy 335bp (+7); Spain 403bp (+1).

EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 51bp (-1,0); 5-10 YRS 82bp (-2,0) 10-30 YRS 58bp (-1,0).
2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,048% (-3,1) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,54% (-4).

Main at 129 +1 (0,8% wider); Financials at 175 +4 (2,3% wider). Cross at 535 +7.
Stoxx Futures at 2494 / +0,5% (from 2481) with S&P minis at 1403 (-0,4% from 1408, at European close).
VIX index at 18,5 after 18,0 yesterday same time.

Oil 86,1/109,3 (WTI/Brent) from 85,5/107,9 (+0,7%/+1,3%). Gold at 1714 unchanged. Copper at 355 from 356 (-0,3%). CRB at 298 unchanged from EU COB.
BDIY ticking down to 1049 from 1051 (-0.2%). Still a positive week after previously getting over the 4-digit mark to 1010 last Friday (+3.9%).

EUR 1,294 from 1,295

Greek guesstimate: Greek bonds a little softer and waiting for hard, concrete news; +25bp with 2023s at 17.00% and 2042s at 15.00%. SOMEHOW.GREECE.WILL.BE.SAVED.-credo seems to lose a little steam here, especially after last weeks’ furious progression. The discussions and haggling seem to drag on, Spanish-style, with nothing concrete popping up – outside the general view that things won’t be manageable without more cash.

All levels COB 17:30 CET

Upcoming Macro Data:
End of month. Low numbers supply. Final PMIs on Friday. Of course, US NFP on Friday after last month’s buzz.
Note that parts of Europe will be closed for the Thu 01 Nov All Saints holiday, leading to patchy liquidity, probably bridged into the weekend. Most business will thus be squashed into the first 3 days with some recurrent long end supply.
French EUR 7.5bn OAT auction (2019, 2022, 2035) pushed forward to Wednesday (from normally Thu), coinciding with EUR 2bn 30 YRS Bunds, so beware of the long end. Will have Belgium as well auctioning some EUR 3.5bn in 2032 and 2035 OLOs, next to 5 and 10 YRS on Monday. Italy in for EUR 4bn 5s and EUR 3bn 10s on Tue. No supply Thu and Fri.

Trading will remain rather technical, subject to Periphery rumours and jitters.

EZ: Tue Biz Climate Indicators
GE: Mon CPI fcst +2% after 2.1% Tue Unemployment fcst 6.9% after 6.8%, Retail Sales fcst +0.5% after rev. +0.1% MoM. Fri MfG PMI 45.7
FR: Wed PPI fcst +2.5% after rev. 2.5% YoY, Cons Spending fcst -0.1% after -0.8% MoM. Fri MfG PMI 43.5
Italy: Wed Unemployment last 10.7%, CPI last 3.4% YoY, PPI last 3% YoY. Fri MfG PMI 45.7, Budget
Spain: Mon Retail Sales last -2.1% YoY. Tue GDP fcst -0.4% QoQ after -0.4% / -1.7% YoY. Wed Housing Permits. Fri PMI
US: Mon Personal Income and Spending fcst +0.4% after +0.1% and +0.6% after +0.5%. Tue Case Shiller House PX. Cons Conf fcst 72 after 70.3. Wed NAPM, Chicago PM. Thu Claims. Final PMI. ISM. Construction spending.
Ch: Thu final PMIs

Click link under title or below for today’s musical support:
First Stones single in 7 years and, hey, they finally sound like the Stones ages ago! Although reading that Jagger is playing the guitar riff and not Keef is rather odd. Old couple. Keef has rubbed off on Mick???
Music Link
 

http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com

25 Oct 2012 – “ Karma Police ” (Radiohead, 1997)

25 Oct 2012 – “  Karma Police  ” (Radiohead, 1997)
Music Link

And then? Not much to take away from US action after European close. Things just went quiet, the FED didn’t surprise either way and the close was soft, near lows, in reduced volatility and with lows not massively deep. 100d average not tested in INDU yesterday, but quite near (7 ticks), though. Same chart point  about 14 ticks away in S&P. Will depend on today’s European mood and earnings, although Amazon and, tataaaa, Apple numbers are for after today’s close. Asian session mixed, but not far away from prior day’s levels. Japan better on the umpteenth QE package being readied up. China soft, again.
Nothing major overnight, except some (usual) Greek back and forth on whether or not conditions have / will / were / ought to be met / re-negotiated / cancelled / discussed. But, yes, yes, we’re nearing understanding, it’s just EUR 1bn – 2 bn – 15bn away tomorrow / next week / in 2 years.

Quiet data front, so quiet. And when something pops up, it’s rather bleak. Had French unemployment numbers on the rise yesterday evening, hitting again new post-EZ accession highs at 3.058m, a number last seen that high in April 1999. Spanish PPI surprisingly contained (or not, given the state of the economy) and shrinking 0.1% (fcst +0.5% after +1.2%), but still +3.8% YoY (fcst 4.4% after 4.1%).

European cash open about unchanged overall. A little wobbly at start with equity futures trading higher in pre-market, then lower at open, then unchanged. No big swings, though. Staying close to home.
EGBs opening with a softer touch with Bunds 2 wider (1.59%), trailing UST that remained weak in the US session, despite softer equities and overnight (1.82% +3bp). Periphery, for choice, probably a tick better across the curve. Credit a tick wider.
Commodities about 0.5% better with the EUR just on / below 1.30.
Note that Gold brushed through 1700 in US trading, not that this level as such were really important outside the 12m highs 1785-1800 and lows 1535-1550.
Getting after an hour the now-accustomed European morning Risk On attempt since Tuesday: No shoes flying low, get higher, hope the US will follow. Equities pushing 0.6%, Spain and Italy tighter by 4 in 10s and Bunds out by 4 to 1.61% pivot. Spain now well back though the 400-mark to Bunds at +390.

EZ M3 falling to 2.7% YoY sa (fcst 3% after 2.9%, rev. 2.8%), 3m average 3% (fcst 3.1% after 3.2%, rev. 3.1%). Ok, it’s not yet the deflation Draghi was talking about as risk factor yesterday, but it’s reversing its rise up to 3.2% in July.

No government supply. Italy will sell “only” EUR 3bn 2 YRS zeros tomorrow (down from EUR 4bn last month), next to EUR 1bn ILB. Nice attempt to bluff “We’re so cool.” And to make sure bids will be supportive. Then again, average CTZ auction size has always been rather EUR 2.53bn. 25 Sep results were 2.532% for EUR 3.9bn.

UK Q3 GDP, let’s walk on the bright side for once, up 1% QoQ (above +0.6% fcst after -0.4%). Then again, you can only have the Queen’s jubilee and Olympics every so often (Ask the Greeks…) as well as the different QEs.

Upside Risk pressure receding somewhat at midday with Equities up 0.4%, Credit still about unchanged. Bunds harking back 1 bp or 2 from their widest levels, while Periphery bonds did the opposite. EUR curve about 1bp steeper in 2-5-10-30 on light ROn. Note that the EFSF 10 YRS bond now trades through France, which is a bit lagging these days (see last days’ reports that would tend to point out some upcoming struggles to make numbers meet).
Bunds 1,60% (+3), OBLs 0,60% (+2), BKOs 0,091% (+0,8). UST 1,83% (+4), ahead of the 7 YRS auction (the softest spot in the US curve at pre-open) later this evening.
Spanish 2s 2,96% (unch), 10s at 5,53% (-2). Spanish 2-10s 257bp (-2).
Italian 2s at 2,21% (unch), 10s at 4,81% (-2). Italian 2-10s 260bp (-2).
EUR still right on the 1.30-mark. Commodities still better bid, up 0.7%.

The Spanish Treasury has confirmed yesterday’s leaks / rumours that it will indeed front fund raising for those regions in need next year – of course, under strict conditionality… This will add up to the EUR 207bn BONO and bill supply pencilled in for next year and seriously brings back the contingent funding needs of Spain (ICO, FROB, FADE, regions, supplier financing and other public issuers that have barely made it back into the markets, if at all). Should be negative for spreads, unless it finally leads Spain to Spailout.
Was seen as this, as Risk On started to fade out with the US accounts coming in and the periphery shifted back to unchanged, ahead of US figures.
Talking of Regions, the question of Scottish independence while keeping EU membership is an interesting one, as already answered negatively by the Spanish FM – keen not to have that question raised in his own back-yard by the Catalans. NIMBY! The EU HAS mysterious ways. Like voting down (in non-binding manner) Luxembourg’s Mersch’s ECB board application, because he’s not a woman. Ok, non-binding and probably right about the question in itself. Hey, we need Lagarde back to Europe – and her Karma.

US data with Claims at +369k (fcst 370k after 388k, rev. 392k), Continuous Claims at 3254k (fcst 3260k from 3252k, rev. 3256k). Neutral. Durables Goods for Sep rising 9.9% (fcst +7.5% after -13.2%), ex Trans +2.0% (fcst +0.9% after -1.6%, rev.2.1%). Good, outside stronger prior revision. Capital Goods order 0% (fcst +0.8% after 1.1%, revised down to +0.2%). Rather bad. Chicago Fed at 0 (fcst -0.2 after -0.87, re. -1.17). Flat overall. Might point to some front-loading into Q3 that starts to peter out, though.
Fair US cash open at +0.5-0.70%, but Pending Home sales were a miss at +0.3% MoM (fcst +2.5% after -2.6%), up 8.5% YoY (fcst 17.4% after 9.6%). So finally Homes get built, but not sold??? Waiting for Apple results after close.

Not nice of Putin to say he could die listening to the EU-leaders talk and talk! Hey, the EU just got awarded the Peace Nobel price – and values punk rock as addition to musical diversity and freedom of speech. Karma Police Blame!
Okay, it might not always be effective, this is true. Especially under the leadership of karma-less HvR. But there’s always Mario and he speaks well. Karma-approved (even if some promises might be a bit hollow…).

Rumour doing rounds in the last 30 minutes of the European session that Fitch was to downgrade the US, leading to switches out of UST into Bunds (explaining the divergence), but the timing seems odd. Fiscal Cliff is known and everything else will be postponed to after the elections. Didn’t make much sense, but felt like an icy draft on Risk. Bad Karma.
European Risk Off close with equities down and the Periphery widening, especially on the shorter end. Credit not much changed, but off tighter levels. Spanish 10s back to over 400 to Bunds. Bunds had the hardest time to get going and it’s only that Fitch story that gave a shove first the first time in days.
Bunds closed at 1,57% (unch), OBLs at 0,58% (unch) and BKOs 0,079% (-0,4) with UST at 1,80% (+1)
Spanish 2s at 3,02% (+6), 10s at 5,59% (+4). Spanish 2-10s 257bp (-2).

Italian 2s at 2,26% (+5), 10s at 4,85% (+2). Italian 2-10s 259bp (-3).
Commodities about as stable as one could think. EUR, too, eventually.
SovX CDS index still tightening ahead of the naked short ban and thus totally out of the scope. Question is how much that ban and unwindings or squaring were responsible for the late Periphery rally. Index not worth tracking anymore.

European equities still somehow rangy with EStoxx trying to stick around 50d average right on 2503 (through). 50d levels: DAX 7224 (on it), CAC 3460 (through), MIB 15615 (above) & IBEX 7768 (above). But the picture since last Friday doesn’t really look that great: Friday high open to lows -1.9%, Mon mid-morning high to lows -1.3%, Tue mid-morning high to lows -2.8% (before rebounding), Wed mid-morning lows to highs +1.60% (before running out of steam) and today again mid-morning high to close -1.2%. Bad Karma.
To round up average levels: 100d for INDU 13080 and SPX 1396, hence not that far.

Take-away: Puh… Why don’t we just wait for Apple? They might pitch a maxi iPhone 6? Or so…
Otherwise, rather Bad Karma day. Flat start, bullish morning, refreshing afternoon. Nothing concrete or fundamental, so it’s a spiritual thing.

Outlook for tomorrow. Italian 2 YRS zeroes auction. German and French Consumer Confidence (fcst 5.9 unch and 84 after 85). French Biz survey. Italian Biz Confidence (fcst 88.7 after 88.3). Spanish Q3 unemployment expected to soar to 25% (from 24.6%). US Q3 GDP fcst +1.8% QoQ after 1.3%. Michigan U Confidence fcst 83 after 83.1. Apple earnings tonight.

Sole New Issue of the day was a pre-placed EUR 500m 7 YRS for low-IG EP Energy (US oil & NatGas), priced at 5.875% (MS +450).

Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.

Closing levels:
10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,57% (unch); Luxembourg 1,66% (+1); Finland 1,79% (-1); Netherlands 1,81% (+1); Swaps 1,86% (+3); EU 1,91% (unch), Austria 2,03% (+1); EIB 2,10% (-1); EFSF 2,20% (unch); France 2,25% (+1); Belgium 2,47% (unch); Italy 4,85% (+2); Spain 5,59% (+4).

10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 9bp (+1); Finland 22bp (-1); Netherlands 24bp (+1); Swaps 29bp (+3); EU 34bp (unch); Austria 46bp (+1); EIB 53bp (-1); EFSF 63bp (unch); France 68bp (+1); Belgium 90bp (unch); Italy 328bp (+2); Spain 402bp (+4).

EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 52bp (+1,0); 5-10 YRS 84bp (+1,0) 10-30 YRS 59bp (+1,0).
2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,079% (-0,4) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,58% (unch).

Main at 128 +1 (0,8% wider); Financials at 171 +1 (0,6% wider). Cross at 528 +6. SovX still tightening ahead of the naked short ban and thus totally out of the scope.
Stoxx Futures at 2481 / -0,4% (from 2490) with S&P minis at 1408 (unch from European close).
VIX index at 18,0 after 18,4 yesterday same time.

Oil 85,5/107,9 (WTI/Brent) from 85,7/107,8 (-0,2%/unch). Gold at 1714 after 1703 (+0,7%). Copper at 356 from 356 (unch). CRB at EU COB 298,0 from 300,0 (-0,7%).
BDY down again after Tuesday’s surge, down to 1051 from 1088 (-3.4%).
EUR 1,295 from 1,296

Greek guesstimate: Greek bonds on stand-still and waiting for hard, concrete news; unchanged with 2023s at 16.75% and 2042s at 14.75%.

All levels COB 17:30 CET

Upcoming Macro Data:
US Q3 figures on Friday.
Trading will remain rather technical, subject to Periphery rumours and jitters.
Auction supply low and mostly unexciting. US closing supply with USD 29bn 7 YRS tomorrow.

EZ: Tue Biz Climate Indicators
GE: Fri Import Prices fcst 2.9% after 3.2% Mon CPI last 2% Tue Unemployment last 6.8% & Retail Sales last +0.1% MoM
FR: Fri Cons Conf fcst 84 after 85 Wed PPI last +2.5% YoY & Cons Spending last -0.8% MoM
Italy: Fri Biz Confidence 88.7 after 88.3, Wed Unemployment & CPI + PPI
Spain: Fri Unemployment fcst 25% after 24.6% Mon retail Sales Tue GDP & CPI
US: Fri GDP & UoM Conf.

Click link under title or below for today’s musical support:
A total Karma thing. Needs to be policed.
Music Link

http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com

24 Oct 2012 – “ Planet Earth ” (Duran Duran, 1981)

24 Oct 2012 – “  Planet Earth  ” (Duran Duran, 1981)
Music Link

Yeah, Lights Out in US equities, although the NASDAQ managed to outperform the INDU by 1% and keeping losses below 1%. Still, INDU down 1.8% and S&P -1.4%, both now nearing 100d averages at 13061 (41 points or just 0.3% away) and 1393 (still 20 points or 1.4% away) with 50d averages now in need for upswings of 252 points (1.9%) and 21 points (+1.5%). Oh, and yes, there will be a midi iPad under the Xmas tree (-3.3%), but it won’t be a give-away.
Asian Risk session rather solid, given the negative US backdrop with losses mainly contained between 0.8% and 0.3%, supported by Private PMI reading in China ticking up to a 3m high of 49 (after 47.9 in Sep). Not exactly roaring, but a straw is a straw.
Had some overnight reports about Greece being given 2 more years to reach targets, later denied. Nothing out of Spain, although yesterday’s pulled Madrid issue (initially pitched around 8%), actually an increase, doesn’t bode well for the Regional Funds liquidity, as it might dry out rather sooner than later.

European initial quotes all on the surprisingly bullish side (up to +0.70 in equities in pre-cash futures), following the Chinese PMI release, but coming down in 2 stages after French and German PMI figures were published. While initially, Bunds gapped lower and Periphery bonds were marked tighter, 45 minutes into the cash session, things were brought back to mainly unchanged with Bunds put at 1.58% (and UST still +2 to 1.78%), equities roughly flat to a tick below COB and the Periphery on the heavier side, wider by 2 in Italy (4.88%) and up to 5 in Spain (5.65%). Commodities faring little better on Chinese hopes. EUR unchanged 1.296.

French PMI a miss in Mfg at 43.5 (fcst 44 after 42.7) (and the Peugeot bail-out won’t help things), but with (more important in France) Services ticking up to 45.2 (fcst 45.4 after 45). Still well below 50 readings and hovering on a low stand. Q4 GDP outlook looks bad and the government will need to think about where and how to puncture more taxes to hit objectives.
German PMI disappointing, too, with no rebound (as somehow priced in) with MfG squarely dipping to 4.7 (fcst 48 after 47.4) and Services sliding to 49.3 (fcst was 50 after 49.7).
Mood further dampened by German IFO institute readings of Biz Climate at 100 (fcst 101.6 after 101.4), Current Assessment sliding to 107.3 (fcst 110 after 110.3) and Expectations component flat at 93.2 (fcst 93.6 after 93.2). No rebound. None. Q4 will be a b*tch.
EZ PMI in the same vein with MfG sliding further to 45.3 (fcst uptick to 46.5 after 46.1) and Services just a touch better at 46.2 (fcst 46.4 after 46.1).
This is the German Coast Guard: What are you sinking?

Updated Eurostat Q2 debt figures show an overall increase to 90% of GDP (from 88.2% in Q1) with  France hurdling the 90%-barrier at 91 (after 89.1), Germany up to 82.8 (from 81.1),  Italy at 126.1 (after 123.7)  and Spain surging (in terms of progression) to 76 (from 72.9). In the bail-out club Ireland is now at 111.5 (from 108.5), Greece at 150.3 (from 136.9) and Portugal at 117.5 (from 112) with Cyprus the second-steepest progression on the EZ (after Greece) with debt now at 83.3 (from 75).
Top 5 debt increases compared to close 2011 (Monday’s figures) in percentage terms (omitting Luxembourg and Estonia) Slovakia +EUR 5.4bn (+18%), Cyprus +EUR 2.2bn (+16.9%), Spain +EUR 68.1bn (+9.3%), Portugal +EUR 13.4bn (7.3%) and Finland +EUR 6.8bn (+7.3%).
Winner in absolute terms, next to Spain in relative, is France, which added EUR 115.6bn to its debt load (+6.7%). Given the a.m. PMI figures and latest French data, which point to a weak Q4, this ought to keep the French government to think about spending too much of its own money on being nice to others…. At least, it ought to…

Today’s sole auction courtesy of the Finanzagentur with a EUR 4bn reopening of the 10 YRS “Bad Karma” Bund at 1.56% (from 1.575% at close and about 1.58% at open). Ok, finally the curse has been lifted and over EUR 5bn in bids supported the sales. 1 tick tail. BuBa market intervention retention of about 670m. Seen like this, a success…
As a reminder, the last auction was at 1.52% on 26 Sep, but a fail with then solely EUR 3.9bn of bids for EUR 5bn, and the BuBa loading up on EUR 1.8bn, and an inaugural launch early Sep, which failed as well at 1.42%, but again with EUR 3.9bn bids for earmarked EUR 5bn in sales).

Still, there’s just so much pain one can take before endorphins kick in and dull the spirit. By mid-morning, Risk adverseness had bottomed-out with equities even attempting a renewed rebound above closing levels. Lunchtime attack on the opening highs. No specific trigger.
Mid-day picture actually fairly relaxed (ahead of further earning releases), but with EGBs still on the tighter side, unchanged from levels that saw equities over 1% softer mid –morning. Equity rebound at +0.6% versus close and +1.3% from morning lows. Amazing. Credit unchanged. Periphery off widest levels (5.66% in Spanish 10s), but not massively so. Spanish 2s still over 3%-mark, though.
Bunds 1,56% (-2), OBLs 0,59% (-1), BKOs 0,091% (-1,3). UST 1,77% (+1)
Spanish 2s 3,00% (+1) and 10s at 5,61% (+1). Spanish 2-10s 261bp (unch).
Italian 2s at 2,24% (+4), 10s at 4,87% (+1). Italian 2-10s 263bp (-3).
EUR still soft. Commodities upticking, but just so.

Earnings before market open mainly on the slightly negative side, but for Dow Chemical and AT&T, as well as Lockheed and Boeing, flying high these days. No early figures.
Draghi in Bundestag charm attempt, but with nothing really crisp, at least upfront.

Andalusia spokesman on the ticker why Spanish regions need aid in general – and more aid in this particular case… As a.m. with regards to Madrid, Spanish regions have barely a market access anymore. And Andalusia had asked for up to EUR 4.9bn – not for the EUR 2.1bn the sovereign intends to send over.

US PMI at 51.3 (fcst 51.5 after 51.1). Same broken dreams of a sustained rebound, as with the European data, but at least not a miss. Good for 0.20% in European equities to a new HOD and pushing Bunds back to unchanged, especially as we had Greek declarations about all being good for an extension, later denied among others by Draghi.

US cash open positive, but not really moving anywhere from the initial 0.30% (and slightly over the top and rapidly corrected 0.75% for the NASDAQ). Risk loosing steam on Greek solution denials and Return to Earth. New Home Sales positive at first sight at +389k (fcst 385k after, 373k, but revised 368k). Looks good at 5.7% MoM, after revised -.3%, but nsa numbers are simply skimpy in absolute terms. Back to Earth.
Merkel trying to re-heat a softer domestic tax approach in order to entice German consumer spending.
Closing with European Risk nervously following US leads, trying to outlast, despite some US sliding around European close.

European Risk closing in recovery mode. Equities up 0.6%. Credit flattish, a tick better. Bunds holding ok after a positive auction, as all other EGBs actually. Good Periphery afternoon session with Spanish 2s back below the 3%-mark. 10s holding ok and closing tighter (and 10bp off their widest level).
Bunds closed at 1,57% (-1), OBLs at 0,58% (-2) and BKOs 0,083% (-2,1) with UST at 1,79% (3)
Spanish 2s at 2,96% (-3), 10s at 5,55% (-5). Spanish 2-10s 259bp (-2).
Italian 2s at 2,21% (+1), 10s at 4,83% (-3). Italian 2-10s 262bp (-4)
Commodities sideways mixed. Not much of an event. EUR eventually unchanged after testing the 29-30 range on both sides without follow-though.

Take-away: I might have missed something today behind my screens. The weakness after the US close and soft sentiment figures I understood. The mid-morning change in mind and subsequent rebound (except that we were lower than yesterday) seems a bit puzzling here. PMIs rather bad, the rest not good enough…

Not much in terms of macro supply in Europe tomorrow. No auction either. Need to watch US close (AAPL stable at European COB) and FED statements, although I doubt we’ll get anything but neutral comments as QE3 was solely unleashed last month and so short ahead of the elections.

New Issue traffic restricted to EUR 500m Deutsche Telekom 7 YRS at MS +65, EUR 500m Unibail-Rodamco Jun 2017 at MS+80, as well as yet another German Land FRN with EUR 500m Apr 2018 at 3mE+ 10 for Berlin. Nothing else.

Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.

Closing levels:
10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,57% (-1); Luxembourg 1,65% (-2); Netherlands 1,80% (unch); Finland 1,80% (-1); Swaps 1,83% (-1); EU 1,91% (-1), Austria 2,02% (-1); EIB 2,11% (-1); France 2,24% (+1); EFSF 2,20% (-3); Belgium 2,47% (+2); Italy 4,83% (-3); Spain 5,55% (-5).

10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 8bp (-1); Netherlands 23bp (+1); Finland 23bp (unch); Swaps 26bp (unch); EU 34bp (unch); Austria 45bp (unch); EIB 54bp (unch); France 67bp (+2); EFSF 63bp (-2); Belgium 90bp (+3); Italy 326bp (-2); Spain 398bp (-4).

EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 51bp (unch); 5-10 YRS 83bp (+1,0) 10-30 YRS 58bp (+1,0).
2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,083% (-2,1) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,58% (-2).

Main at 127 from 128 (0,8% tighter); Financials at 170 after 171 (0,6% tighter). Cross at 522 from 516.
Stoxx Futures at 2485 / +0,4% (from 2475) with S&P minis at 1409 (+0,1% from 1407, at European close).
VIX index at 18,4 after 18,4 yesterday same time.

Oil 85,6/107,8 (WTI/Brent) from 86,2/107,7 (-0,7%/+0,0%). Gold at 1702 after 1709 (-0,4%). Copper at 356 from 356 (unch). CRB at EU COB 300,0 from 304,0 (-1,3%). 

BDY taking a breather to 1088 from 1109 (-1.9%), after yesterday’s biggest gain in over 2 years.

EUR 1,296 from 1,296

Greek guesstimate: Greek bonds un-amused by Risk Off for most of the day and widening up 50bp in the morning, but eventually closing stable despite announcements and denials. 2023s 16.75% (unch) and 2042s to 14.75% (unch).

All levels COB 17:30 CET

Upcoming Macro Data:
US Q3 figures on Friday.
Trading will remain rather technical, subject to Periphery rumours and jitters.
Auction supply low and mostly unexciting. US closing supply with USD 29bn 7 YRS tomorrow.

EZ: M3 fcst 3.1% after 3.2% Tue Biz Climate Indicators
GE: Fri Import Prices fcst 2.9% after 3.2% Mon CPI last 2% Tue Unemployment last 6.8% & Retail Sales last +0.1% MoM
FR: Fri Cons Conf fcst 84 after 85 Wed PPI last +2.5% YoY & Cons Spending last -0.8% MoM
Italy: Thu Retail Sales fcst -0.2% unch, Fri Biz Confidence 88.7 after 88.3, Wed Unemployment & CPI + PPI
Spain: Thu PPI fcst +4.4% after 4.1% YoY; Fri Unemployment fcst 25% after 24.6% Mon retail Sales Tue GDP & CPI
US: Wed Sep New Home Sales fcst 385k after 373k & FED. Thu Durable Goods fcst +7.5% after -13.2%, Claims & Pending Home Sales. Fri GDP & UoM Conf.

Click link under title or below for today’s musical support:
Same song - nowadays...
Music Link

http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com

23 Oct 2012 – “ Lights Out ” (UFO, 1977)

23 Oct 2012 – “  Lights Out  ” (UFO, 1977)
Music Link

There’s that thing about Apple that makes you go “Hmm”. Almighty. Managed to turn around the US equity market that had drifted lower and lower, even after the European close, to have the indices close about flat. Ok, there’s an iPad mini presentation probably today (which is no news), but does this counter the real economy outlook of CAT? Whatever. Had a last hour straight rise of 0.75% to close the session (spot on 50d average at 1434 for the S&P and a shade lower than 13555 for INDU). All is good. Better. Ok, not that bad. Asia mostly red, though, with China down 1%. Japan still resilient at flat. Same for Oz.
Presidential debate not a big market play. Had Moody’s trashing Spanish regions with some cut from Junk to Deep Junk, among which Catalonia (about 20% of GDP), down to Ba1, Andalucia (now Ba3, as are Castilla-La Mancha or Murcia). Happens to be the Regional Bail-out demanders. Same as for Spailout: Damned if you do, damned if you don’t.

European open about tame, but certainly less buoyant than yesterday, when morning action (after the dismal US close) seemed astonishing. Slight Risk Off with Bunds tightening in a tick to 1.61% (unlike USTs at 1.80%) and the Periphery 2-3 wider, across the curve. EGBs mixed around closing levels. Swaps and curve unchanged. Equities a touch below COB, credit still about stable. Commodities still on the defensive, down 0.5% to 1%, across the products. EUR drifting sideways on yesterday’s levels in the low to mid 30s.

French sentiment data all gloom and doom, after a lighter summer, with own-company production outlook seen at -8 (from -5), Production Outlook at -56 (fcst -50 after -52) and the more important Biz Confidence sliding to a mere 85 (fcst 90 unchanged), a level last seen in Q3/2009 and the lowest since June 2011.

Bank of Spain on the ticker, as usual lately, confronting the Spanish government with unpalatable analyses about falling tax receipts and a very ambitious 2013 budget, given further falling demand. Q3 GD P estimate at -0.4% QoQ / -1.7% YoY after -0.43 and -0.34%. Fifth quarter of decreasing growth. Knowing that the BoS points out some front-loaded spending before the Sep VAT increase.

Auction supply from Spain for the targeted EUR 3.5bn split in EUR 967m 3m at 1.415% (last 1.203%) and EUR 2.56bn 6m bills at 2.023% (last 2.213%, one month ago). B/C ratios slightly increased to 4.32 and 1.99 from and 3.3 and 1.8. Seems well controlled.
Rare, and hence quite overpaid, Finnish auction for EUR 1bn 10 YRS at 1.806% (COB 1.855%) and EUR 501m 30 YRS at 2.588% (COB 2.61%), having started the morning anyway about 1bp better each on ROn. B/C 1.8 for both.
The EU, which started marketing an expected EUR 3bn 15 YRS deal yesterday afternoon on an initial price pitch of high 30s over swaps (EU 2022 about high 10s over swaps, 2026s around 30 over), closed the deal at MS +36, after refining price talks to +35-38 once books oversubscribed. Final books nearing EUR 5bn, although the final pricing reflected either weaker “euro-optimism” or some price sensitive larger orders.
Only auction tomorrow will be a EUR 4bn reopening of the 10 YRS “Bad Karma” Bund (Last 1.52% on 26 Sep, but a fail with then solely EUR 3.9bn of bids for EUR 5bn, and the BuBa loading up on EUR 1.8bn, and a previous inaugural launch, which failed as well at 1.42%, but again with EUR 3.9bn bids for earmarked EUR 5bn in sales). COB 1.575%

Getting further Risk Off action during the course of the morning with EStoxx down 0.75% and Spain weakening by 6bp, creeping over the 5.50%-mark, which, while not set in stone, used to be the “former” upper band of Spanish market unease. Short end 10 wider and approaching the 3% barrier.

Lunch time, heavy, difficult to digest, morphing into some real sell-off with equities losing a further 1% over entrée, main course and desert.

NY pre-open, with no data (and even then only minor) to chew on until 16 CET / 10 NY, no better.
Bunds 1,58% (-4), OBLs 0,61% (-3), BKOs 0,109% (-1,1). UST 1,76% (-3)
Spanish 2s 2,99% (+14) and 10s at 5,56% (+8). Spanish 2-10s 257bp (-6).
Italian 2s 2,14% (+6) and 10s at 4,82% (+6). Italian 2-10s 268bp (-1).
Equities down 1.75%. Credit, initially more stable, wider by 3 to 4% with XO back over the 500-mark.
Commodities sliding with WTI down 3% from European COB. EUR back through 1.30.

Spain trying to wiggle through on deficit numbers, blending accounting standards with down-to-earth numbers, stressing that deficit will be contained to 6.3% (despite adverse BoS calls), excluding Bank Aid, in which case it’s rather a 7.3% number.

US cash open unsurprisingly bleak with futures having trailed Europe throughout the morning, gapping down nearly 1.5% from the (unexpected good close) and still about 0.70% below yesterday’s lows. Ouch. 50d averages of course now far away at 13355 and 1434 and we’ve now dropped halfway to meet 100d averages at 13061 and 1393). Hmm… Hurricane Heart Attack, after all…
Richmond FED Mfg Index missing estimates of 5 (after 4) with a negative 7 print.
EZ Consumer Confidence slightly better at -25.6 after -25.9 fcst (unchanged).

Not much else. ECB’s Coeuré on OMT buying-stop in case of breach of conditions and that the OMT wasn’t meant to subsidize rates. Late ECB comments (as well as this morning’s by Schaueble) getting tougher and sterner on the late complacency and lack of action since the OMT announcement has brought back some calm.

Spain 10s (and the short end, too) slipping gradually. If we bridge 5.75%, we’ll slip to 6%, if we trade 6% we’ll be at 6.50% in a rush. In the meantime, BONOs are back just over 400 to Bunds. Still surprised by safe-haven heaviness, as one could have expected are sharper reaction (after the last day’s hammering) of Bunds and USTs.
Bunds closed at 1,58% (-4), OBLs at 0,60% (-4) and BKOs 0,104% (-1,6) with UST at 1,76% (-3)
Spanish 2s at 2,99% (+14), 10s at 5,60% (+12). Spanish 2-10s 261bp (-2).
Italian 2s at 2,20% (+12), 10s at 4,86% (+10). Italian 2-10s 266bp (-3).
Equities down over 2%, Credit wider by 4%. Oil and Copper heavy. Gold heavy. EUR down 100 pips, but here as well, the reaction to Risk Off seems less aggressive than previously.

Take-away: Uuuhh. Yesterday a heart attack and today Lights Out? Then again, markets went up seamlessly with no trigger and can thus slide the same way. Eventually, we’re only down some 2.5% since Friday’s close… AAPL will need to come up with a helluva surprise mini iPad that does the cooking and bring the kids to school to turn around things overnight. Spain situation still by far not settled enough to last without some real interventions / decisions.

Tomorrow is PMI day all around! China last 47.9. EZ Composite PMI fcst 46.5 after 46.1 German PMI Mfg fcst 48 after 47.4 and Services 50 after 49.7. German IFO to boot with Biz Climate fcst 101.6 after 101.4, Current 110 after 110.3, Expectations 93.6 after 93.2. French PMI Mfg fcst 44 after 42.7 and (more important) Services fcst 45.4 after 45. So, rebound seen everywhere. Will it be the case?
US New Home Sales will need to prove that the Construction is actually sold. US PMI fcst 51.5 after 51.5. FED shouldn’t surprise, unless stopping short of saying “Guys, QE3 won’t work. We need to test something new asap…”, which would trigger a serious sell-off.

Mixed New Issue supply: Next to the a.m. EUR 3bn 1 YRS EU at MS +36 (yield 2.621%, Bund +61), we saw Standard Chartered for EUR 1.25bn 5 YRS at MS +75 in senior, UBI Banca for EUR 750m 3 YRS at MS +315, next to corporates Nederlandse Gasunie for EUR 500m in 3 YRS at MS +25 (0.908%) (…) and unrated German retailer Otto Group for EUR 300m 7 YRS at 4.000% / MS+260, from initial talks 25bp higher. German City-State Hambourg increased a Sep 2020 issue by EUR 250m at MS +8.
Finally, Communidad de Madrid (freshly reaffirmed at Baa3 by Moody’s) announced an increase of its Mar 2020 issue on initial levels around 8.000% (Spain +275bp) – which was eventually pulled.

Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome. 

Closing levels:
10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,58% (-4); Luxembourg 1,67% (-2); Netherlands 1,80% (-4); Finland 1,81% (-5); Swaps 1,84% (-2); EU 1,92% (-3), Austria 2,03% (unch); EIB 2,12% (-4); France 2,23% (+1); EFSF 2,23% (-4); Belgium 2,45% (+2); Italy 4,86% (+10); Spain 5,60% (+12).

10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 9bp (+2); Netherlands 22bp (unch); Finland 23bp (-1); Swaps 26bp (+2); EU 34bp (+1); Austria 45bp (+4); EIB 54bp (unch); France 65bp (+5); EFSF 65bp (+0); Belgium 87bp (+6); Italy 328bp (+14); Spain 402bp (+16).

EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 51bp (-1,0); 5-10 YRS 82bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 57bp (+1,0).
2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,104% (-1,6) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,60% (-4).

Main at 128 from 123 (4,1% wider); Financials at 171 after 164 (4,3% wider). Cross at 516 from 500.
Stoxx Futures at 2475 / -2,1% (from 2527) with S&P minis at 1407 (-1,1% from 1423, at European close).
VIX index at 19,2 after 17,2 yesterday same time.

Oil 86,2/107,7 (WTI/Brent) from 89,8/110,0 (-4,0%/-2,1%). Gold at 1709 after 1725 (-1,0%). Copper at 356 from 362 (-1,7%). CRB at EU COB 304,0 from 306,0 (-0,7%).
BDY on steroids and shooting up 6.9% to 1109 from 1037. Biggest gain in over 2 years.

EUR 1,296 from 1,306

Greek guesstimate: Greek bonds getting softer in the general Risk Off environment – and as obviously things don’t move on. 2023s widening to 16.75% (from 16.25%) and 2042s to 14.75% (from 14.0%), both down over 100 ticks.

All levels COB 17:30 CET

Upcoming Macro Data:
Still doesn’t make for an exciting reading. European data mostly minor. Flash PMI data all around, starting tomorrow. US Q3 figures next Friday. No noteworthy US data until Wed.
Trading will remain rather technical, subject to Periphery rumours and jitters.
Auction supply low and mostly unexciting. US supply with USD 35bn 5s tomorrow and USD 29bn 7 YRS on Thursday.

EZ: Wed Comp PMI fcst 46.5 after 46.1, Mfg fcst 46.5 after 46.1, Services fcst 46.4 after 46.1.
GE: Wed Mfg PMI fcst 48 after 74.4, Services fcst 50 after 49.7, IFO Biz Climate fcst 101.6 after 101.4, Current was 110.3, Expectations 93.2
FR: Wed PMI Mfg fcst44 after 42.7, Services fcst 45.4 after 45; Jobless Claims; Fri Cons Conf
Italy: Wed Consumer Conf prior 86.2; Thu Retail Sales
Spain: Thu Q3 House Prices (last -2.5%, QoQ, -8.3% YoY); Mon Mortgages; Thu PPI; Fri Unemployment
US: Wed Sep New Home Sales fcst 385k after 373k & FED. Thu Durable Goods fcst +7.5% after -13.2%, Claims & Pending Home Sales. Fri GDP & UoM Conf.

Click link under title or below for today’s musical support:
Hmm… Hurricane Heart Attack, after all… Lights Out today?

Music Link

 
http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com

22 Oct 2012 – “ Hurricane Heart Attack ” (The Warlocks, 2002)

22 Oct 2012 – “  Hurricane Heart Attack  ” (The Warlocks, 2002)
Music Link

Considering the weaker European close and especially the dismal US close on Friday with INDU down 1.5% (crossing 50s at 13.353), S&P 1.6% (crossing 50d at 1433.5) and NASDAQ 2.2%, the Asian start of the week was rather on the optimistic side (Japan about flat, China slightly up, Korea and Oz lower).
Not much in terms of weekend news: Analysis of the EU summit tends to stress the differences rather than attained consensus. Spain’s regional elections yielded the expected results, as polled beforehand, with Rajoy’s own stronghold on Galicia confirmed, which will be sold as “See, my measures work”, while the Basque Country independent stance is historic anyway. Question is whether this will trigger a more aggressive wording of Catalan demands. Finally, Greece is still “about 90% done on the Troika haggling”, meaning, considering political overshoot, we haven’t move a iota. Had a German paper reporting over the weekend that the German FM was considering Greece to buy back some of its (still highly discounted debt) with EU / EZ support, in order to profit from the 1:4 leverage (moving 1:3 given the rally of the last 3 weeks).
In a week that will remain light on fundamental or macro news (with Monday sticking out with about nada), early pre-market quotes were rather on the Risk flat side (lulled by Asian stability), followed by some downside adjustments.
Opening levels confirmed sideways with Bunds unchanged at 1.60% (in line with unchanged UST quotes, which didn’t manage to hold onto Fri evening gains down to 1.76%). Periphery 1-2 bp firmer at open, having gone slightly softer on Fri afternoon. Curve about unchanged. Other EGB’s flat to a tick better. Equities and Risk about flat to Fri close. Commodities 1% softer, slightly more in Oil, as the US slide came after European COB. EUR about unchanged on low to mid 30.

Spanish mortgages dipping again, after a spring / early summer respite, down 28.5% YoY after -17.5% with capital loaned down 33.2% after -27.4% (but then again, last week’s data showed record bad loans at 10.5%).

Getting some mid-morning upside traction in Risk with equities trying to wring out up to 0.75% on no discernible reason. Bunds and EGBs still on the softer side and yielding to ROn pressure by widening 1 bp, although Spain, in turn, rapidly pared early gains to drift 4-6bp wider. Surprising.

Second revision of Eurostat’s 2011 government deficits shows EZ debt ratios revised to 87.3% (from 87.2% in April) with deficits remaining at 4.1% (Eurostat October data here) (April here)
Belgium -3.7%/ 98.0% (from -3.7 / 97.8 estimates), France -5.2% / 86.0% (from -5.2 / 85.8), Germany -0.8% / 80.5% (from -1.0 / 81.2), Ireland -13.4% / 106.4% (from -13.1 / 108.2), Italy -3.9% / 120.7% (from -3.9 / 120.1), Greece -9.4% / 170.6% (from -9.1% / 165.3), Netherlands -4.5% / 65.5% (from -4.7 / 65.2), Portugal -4.4% / 108.1% (from -4.2 / 107.8), Spain -9.4%/ 69.3% (from -8.5 / 68.5).
So for choices, deficits revised a little wider and debt/GDP ratios mainly higher, with the notable exception of Germany.

Interesting side by side observations:
Debt numbers by and large in line with earlier estimates, although a 0.5% error adds an impressive EUR 9.5bn to the Italian debt load.
GDP disparities (for the bigger countries) to Germany increasing 2011 estimates by EUR 21.8bn (+0.8%), Ireland by EUR 2.6bn (+1.6%) for the good guys, Spain GDP taken down by EUR 10bn (-0.9%), Greece by EUR 6.5bn (-3% !), France EUR 4bn (-0.2%, given the size) and Finland off by EUR 2.2bn (1.1%).
Deficit disparities ranging from German easing deficit estimates by EUR 5.6bn (-21.6%) and the Netherlands by EUR 1.1bn (-3.9%), but sharp increases in Spain with EUR 9bn added (+9.9%).

Auction supply restricted to the weekly French BTFs with EUR 3.8bn 3m at -0.027% (from -0.023% last week), EUR 1.8bn 6m at -0.011% (from -0.007%) and EUR 1.4bn 12m at +0.022% (from +0.016%). Non-event.
As mentioned on Friday, the EUR 18bn of BTP Italia were a great success (with domestic institutional accounts piling on the closing days of the subscription), pushing funding completion of the Treasury to about a more relaxing 84%. This should leave the calendar for the rest of the year about unchanged from announced with no special rush to catch up or increase auction sizes into the closing months.
As expected, we saw Spanish government-guaranteed development bank ICO in the market with a 5 YRS deal initially indicated at 65 over the Spanish curve, the lately accepted spread for this issuer, but just so. No flier, although eventually EUR 1bn rounded-up.  Already struggled for its latest benchmark attempt, raising EUR 600m 3.5 YRS on 10 Sep at SPGB +65 / MS + 410. Won’t learn.

On tomorrow’s government supply side, we’ll have Spanish 3 and 6m bills (last 1.203% and 2.213% one month ago) for EUR 3.5bn, as well as a rare Finnish auction in 10 YRS (COB 1.855%) and 30 YRS (COB 2.61%).
EU as well in the market for closing tomorrow with an expected EUR 3bn 15 YRS deal, which is a size, on an initial price pitch of high 30s over swaps (EU 2022 trades about high 10s over swaps, 2026s around 30 over).

Mild Risk On at mid-day with Bunds another tick of initial levels (alongside USTs) with equities up about 0.5%.
Periphery mixed with long Italians better and Spain softer (across the curve). Other EGBs softer, too, with the SoftCore holding a little better, for choice. Credit unchanged.
Bunds 1,62% (+2), OBLs 0,65% (+2), BKOs 0,122% (+1,1). UST 1,81% (+2)
Spanish 2s 2,78% (+7) and 10s 5,39% (+4). Spanish 2-10s 261bp (-3).
Italian 2s 2,08% (+1), and 10s 4,75% (-2). Italian 2-10s 267bp (-3).
Commodities still on lower levels (compared to Friday EU COB). EUR up to 1.307 from morning 1.304.

Real Economy Bellwether Caterpillar Q3 profits and future outlook a bit of a dampener on equity traction, but unable to turn around safe haven weakness in Bunds and USTs.
No US figures before cash open, which was eventually negative, stayed that way and brought the Estoxx back to flat and then into slightly negative territory, as well. Here again, only a limited save haven reaction.

Hollande on the ticker to counter whatever Merkel might have said, in order to maintain some mésentente cordiale. Ireland is, of course, special; Greece ought to be helped, as Spain. Everyone ought to be helped.
Interesting credit rating agency project being set-up by China's Dagong, Russian RusRating JSC and US Egan-Jones to form the “Universal Credit Rating Group”. Given EJ past approach, this won’t be of any help for EZ sovereigns, though.
The Bundesbank expects German growth to slow down in Q4, or even to shrink (after an increased Q3, though).

Eventually, another Risk Off close, despite the more upbeat morning, as US gravity is pulling Europe lower. Had some acceleration of Spanish widening in the late afternoon. Still, Bunds and Core EGBs just moving reluctantly tighter. Italy brought back by Spain. Credit only marginally wider, though.
Bunds closed at 1,62% (+2), OBLs at 0,64% (+1) and BKOs 0,120% (+0,8) with UST at 1,79% (unch)
Spanish 2s at 2,85% (+14), 10s at 5,48% (+13). Spanish 2-10s 263bp (-1).
Italian 2s at 2,08% (+1), 10s at 4,76% (-1). Italian 2-10s 269bp (-1).
Commodities feeling heavy, too. Gold steady at 1725. EUR eventually steady at 1.306.

Take-away: Mostly boring. European equity resilience seems surprising, given the otherwise gloomier mood. No news still played out as being good news and even catch-up to US levels seems a doubtful explanation (INDU up 8.9% YTD, S&P 13.75%, EStoxx 9.3%, DAX a staggering +24.2%, CAC 10.3%, Italy +5.2% and Spain -8.1%). Beats me.

New Issues: Next to the ICO deal, we had UniCredit issuing EUR 1.25bn 10 YRS LT2 paper at MS +510, which next to the 5 upfront on the spread seems surprising as level, having issued EUR 1bn senior 3 YRS early Sep at +390 (albeit worth +240s nowadays). Not sure I understand, outside the lack of similar ware and a 500plus headline spread (Senior rating Baa2/BBB+/A- versus Baa3/BBB/BBB+).
ICO Jul 2017 EUR 1bn Spain +65 / about MS +400. EAA, the WestLB defeasance structure, guaranteed by the Land NRW, EUR 500m 5 YRS FRN at 6mE+ 7.5bp.

Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.

Closing levels:
10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,62% (+2); Luxembourg 1,69% (+1); Netherlands 1,84% (+2); Finland 1,86% (+2); Swaps 1,86% (+2); EU 1,95% (+2), Austria 2,03% (+1); EIB 2,16% (+2); France 2,22% (+1); EFSF 2,27% (+3); Belgium 2,43% (+3); Italy 4,76% (-1); Spain 5,48% (+13).

10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 7bp (-1); Netherlands 22bp (unch); Finland 24bp (unch); Swaps 24bp (unch); EU 33bp (unch); Austria 41bp (-1); EIB 54bp (unch); France 60bp (-1); EFSF 65bp (+1); Belgium 81bp (+1); Italy 314bp (-3); Spain 386bp (+11).

EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 52bp (unch); 5-10 YRS 82bp (-1,0) 10-30 YRS 56bp (-2,0).
2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,120% (+0,8) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,64% (+1).

Main at 123 from 122 (0,8% wider); Financials at 164 after 163 (0,6% wider). Cross at 500 from 495.
Stoxx Futures at 2527 / -0,4% (from 2536) with S&P minis at 1423 (-1,0% from 1438, at European close).
Note the VIX index pushing to 17,2 after 15,7 on Friday same time.

Oil 89,8/110,0 (WTI/Brent) from 91,8/112,0 (-2,2%/-1,7%). Gold at 1725 after 1726 (-0,1%). Copper at 362 from 367 (-1,4%). CRB at EU COB 306,0 from 309,0 (-1,0%).
BDY moving away from the 4-digit mark and fixing higher again at 1037 from 1010 (+2.7%).

EUR 1,306 from 1,302

Greek guesstimate: Stunning. There’s such certainty that things will eventually be fixed that Greek bonds have become the hottest thing in town. 16.25% (unchanged) for 2023s and down another 25bp to 14.00% for 2042s. New highs. Wolfgang, danke.

All levels COB 17:30 CET

Upcoming Macro Data:
Still doesn’t make for an exciting reading. European data mostly minor. Flash PMI data all around, starting Wednesday. US Q3 figures next Friday. No noteworthy US data until Wed.
Trading will remain rather technical, subject to Periphery rumours and jitters. Auction supply low and mostly unexciting. US supply with USD 35bn 2s tomorrow, followed by USD 35bn 5s and USD 29bn 7 YRS thereafter.

EZ: Consumer Conf fcst -25.9 (unch).
GE: Wed Mfg PMI fcst 48 after 74.4, Services fcst 50 after 49.7, IFO Biz Climate fcst 101.6 after 101.4, Current was 110.3, Expectations 93.2
FR:  Tue Production Outlook fcst -50 (after -52) and Biz Conf (was 90); Wed PMI Mfg prior 42.7, Services prior 45; Jobless Claims; Fri Cons Conf
Italy: Wed Consumer Conf prior 86.2; Thu Retail Sales
Spain: Thu Q3 House Prices (last -2.5%, QoQ, -8.3% YoY); Mon Mortgages; Thu PPI; Fri Unemployment
US: Mon nothing. Tue Richmond Fed. Wed New Home Sales & FED. Thu Durable Goods, Claims & Pending Home Sales. Fri GDP & UoM Conf.

Click link under title or below for today’s musical support:
Not sure the title really fits for today, but it’s bound to happen at some stage. Anyhow, I like the song…
Music Link

http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com