11 Dec 2012 – “ (Ain’t That) Good News ” (Sam Cooke, 1964)

11 Dec 2012 – “ (Ain’t That) Good News ” (Sam Cooke, 1964)

Music Link

Markets recovering quite nicely from the Italian shock. Add some better outlook figures and we’re all friends again. The Spanish bill auction was less punishing than could have been feared. US opening stronger. Everything else is all good again. Greek bonds stellar.

"(Ain't That) Good News" (Bunds 1,32% +2; Spain 5,45% -9; Stoxx 2623 +1,0%; EUR 1,299 +60)

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Not much to chew on overnight. The US ended slightly positive in reduced volume and volatility with closing levels a shade below European COB. Awaiting Fiscal Cliff clues or maybe some guidance from the FED.

Asia mixed, but close to home with China down 0.5% after the last days run upwards, Japan a touch in the red, the rest sluggishly positive.

Some press reports fretting about Monti eventually being lined up on an centrist and “responsible” platform. Like stated yesterday, we’ll all suddenly turn political analysts, specialising in the colourful Italian scene, but will thus remain essentially blind for a while.

No noteworthy macro data to start the day with the exception of German Wholesale Prices ticking lower to -0.7% from -0.6% MoM, +3.2% after 4.6% YoY.

Morning quotes 30 minutes into the session showing markets generally flat, a slight axe into EGBs and Italian bonds still on the heavier side.

Bunds 1.29% (-1) / UST 1.62% (flat on Friday’s levels).

Italian 2s wider by 7 to hit 2.25% and 10s equally soft to hit 4.87%. Spain is holding a little better, just one symbolic basis point wider, in order to mark Periphery softness (ahead of the 12 & 18m bills sale).

Equities flat to a tick or two better with Italy again 0.7%, balanced out by Spain 0.5% firmer. Credit a tick better.

EUR back to mid-1.29s. Commodities mixed to a little softer.

Mood swinging back to a brighter one in the course of the morning with especially Italy getting some support and turning flat from the initial softness, and everyone getting its monies with Spain issuing (more than the targeted EUR 3.5bn) EUR 3.9bn in 12 and 18m bills at 2.56% and 2.78% (from 2.80% and 3.03% one month ago), while Greece hit bids for slightly over EUR 2.7bn in 4-week bills at 3.99% and EUR 1.625bn 6m at 4.38% (from 3.95% and 4.41% one month ago). Belgium sold EUR 200m 3m at -0.032% and especially EUR 1bn 12m at -0.0039%, finally having, too, a shot at testing the sweet taste of negative 1-year yields. France is now done with bills for the year and will be back in 2013.

Austria sold EUR 550m 2019 at 1.021% and the same amount in 2022s at 1.706% (from yesterday’s closing levels at 1.205% and 1.700%), both, of course, record auction lows.

Italy will sell EUR 6.5bn in 12m bills tomorrow (last 1.76%) et courageously sticks to its plans to sell a new 3 YRS benchmark on Thursday with EUR 3.5bn now slated for a 2.750% 01 Dec 2015 (ISIN IT0004880990) (The last 3 YRS auction was at 2.64% for Jul 2015s mid Nov) and up to 750m to be added to the 4.500% Mar 2026 (COB 4.965%). And if the Spaniards go for the 2040 on Thursday…

Spain going for a mere EUR 2bn in 3 and off-the-run 5 YRS, next to increasing the 4.90% Jul 2040 (6.075% at COB). Announced as well it would provide up to EUR 23bn for the regions. Will need to see the size of the tab for 2013.

New Issues still sporadic but with larger sizes than yesterday with French retailer Carrefour raising EUR 1bn in 5 YRS at MS +120 and AT&T going for EUR 1bn 20 YRS at MS +140 (after EUR 1bn 8 YRS at MS+60 10 days ago).

Good German ZEW numbers, as sole important European data set of the day, with Current Sentiment slightly under forecast at 5.7 (fcst 6 after 5.4), but with the Economic Sentiment surging to 6.9 (fcst -11.5 after -15.7) and the EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment rising to 7.6 from -2.6.

So late-morning mood back into Risk On after yesterday’s wobbles.

No need to delve on the general support for Monti – stemming from outside Italy. Everyone’s darling.

Midday picture showing a much improved view of potential Periphery stress with Italy finally tightening in 15bp from the morning wides and Spain tagging along.

EGBs mildly softer, after this morning’s mildly stronger start, but then, they hadn’t had a hugely visceral reaction of the last days either.

Bunds 1,32% (+2), OBLs 0,31% (+1), BKOs -0,070% (+0,8). UST at 1,63% (+1).

Spanish 2s 2,98% (-7), 10s 5,48% (-6). 2-10 YRS spread 250bp (+1).

Italian 2s 2,13% (-5), 10s 4,75% (-6). 2-10 YRS spread 262bp (-1).

Equities crawling back higher, up 0.50%. Credit recovering with especially Financials 4/2.5% tighter.

EUR crawling higher. Commodities about unchanged from morning levels.

Greek bonds going for a final stampede on the closing of the buy-back with 2023s now at 43.50 (13.28% -30bp) and 2042s at 33.0 (11.15% -34bp) from yesterday’s closing estimates at 42.50 (13.58%) and 31.75 (11.49%).

So both ends of the GGB curve are now well over the high end of the buy-back proposals of 40.1 and 32.2.

US Small Business optimism on the softer side at 87.5 (fcst 92.5 after 93.1), but with the markets awaiting Inventory numbers as main number of the day (fcst +0.4% after 1.1%) after markets open.

US equities gapping up over 0.5% at open, shoving European Risk as much higher, too. Wholesale Inventories rising 0.6% (fcst +0.4% after +1.1%), although Sales were down -0.3% (ex gas). Some stuff might be piling up, here… More secondary data sets on Economic Optimism down to 45.1, missing a 50 forecast after 48.6 (Hmmm?! Another sentiment miss?) and JOLT Jobs up to 3675 (fcst 3600 after rev. 3547). Who cares? S&P crawling back to election levels 2 months ago and EStoxx taking out new 2012 highs. Ain’t that Good News???

Pretty good sync in global equities with all indices across the board trading about +0.75% from yesterday’s European close by late afternoon. NASDAQ a quarter better with Apple up 3%. Italy and Spain outperforming, too. EUR happily back to 1.30.

European Risk closing taking out its top of the year (up 1%, down 0.2% HOD) with Credit strong again (about 4% tighter).

EGBs trading sideways in unconvinced manner, be it to the tight side or softer. Curves more or less unchanged.

Bunds closed at 1,32% (+2), OBLs at 0,31% (+1) and BKOs -0,070% (+0,8). UST at 1,65% (+3) COB, ahead of 3 days of auction supply.

Spanish 2s at 2,95% (-10), 10s at 5,45% (-9). 2-10 YRS spread 250bp (+1).

Italian 2s at 2,08% (-10), 10s at 4,72% (-9). 2-10 YRS spread 263bp (+0).

Greek bonds closing at their highs on the closing of the buy-back with 2023s now at 43.50 (13.28% -30bp), unchanged from noon, and 2042s at 34.0 (10.90% -59bp) from yesterday’s closing estimates at 42.50 (13.58%) and 31.75 (11.49%). Ain’t that Good News?

Note that Commodities didn’t join the Risk On party again with Oil split, Gold a touch softer, as is Copper.

Take-away: Markets recovering quite nicely from the Italian shock. Add some better outlook figures and we’re all friends again. The Spanish bill auction was less punishing than could have been feared. US opening stronger. Everything else is all good again. Greek bonds stellar.

Outlook: Same. Sideways upwards, subject to Fiscal Cliff discussions and Italian bunga interventions. Spain to hurt, if Italy weakens further. Amazingly quiet Italian front, but, then again, the campaign hasn’t started yet. Careful!

We felt yesterday that EGBs were looking tight and rather unwilling to shed much more yield, unless real panic spreads, which was confirmed today. They’re not getting much softer either, on the other hand. Equities amazingly aloof. Everything good. Ain’t that Good News?

Italian 12m bills tomorrow. EZ Industrial Production fcst flat MoM after -2.5% / -2.4% after -2.3% YoY wda. FED

European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx 2519/2484, DAX 7289/7167, CAC 3466/3446, MIB 15578/15276, IBEX 7816/7607.

US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU 13142/13160/13000, S&P 1417/1413/1386, NASDAQ 3004/3025/2988 with AAPL at 597/622/601.

EUR: 50d 1.292, 100d 1.276 & 200d 1.278. Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273& 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).

Next AVFMS will be Thursday.

Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.

Closing levels:

10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,32% (+2); Luxembourg 1,39% (unch); Netherlands 1,53% (unch); Finland 1,56% (unch); EU 1,58% (unch); Swaps 1,58% (unch), Austria 1,71% (+1); EIB 1,75% (unch); EFSF 1,86% (-1); France 1,96% (+1); Belgium 2,12% (+1); Italy 4,72% (-9); Spain 5,45% (-9).

10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 7bp (-2); Netherlands 21bp (-2); Finland 24bp (-2); EU 26bp (-2); Swaps 26bp (-2); Austria 39bp (-1); EIB 43bp (-2); EFSF 54bp (-3); France 64bp (-1); Belgium 80bp (-1); Italy 340bp (-11); Spain 413bp (-11).

EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 44bp (unch); 5-10 YRS 82bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 67bp (-1,0).

2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,070% (+0,8) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,31% (+1).

Main -5 to 115 (-4,2% tighter); Financials -6 to 152 (-3,8% tighter); Cross -19 to 463 (-3,9% tighter).

Stoxx Futures at 2623 / +1,0% (from 2598) with S&P minis at 1431 (+0,8% from 1420, at European close).

VIX index at 15,6 after 16,5 yesterday same time.

Oil 85,8/107,9 (WTI/Brent) from 86,4/107,0 (-0,7%/+0,8%). Gold at 1707 after 1713 (-0,4%). Copper at 368 from 370 (-0,5%). CRB at EU COB 293,0 from 295,0 (-0,7%).

Oh? BDIY crashed 66 ticks or 3.9% to 900 today. The latest dip from the post-Summer high of 1109 in Oct had been halted at 916, before that we slipped from 1162 in July to 661 mid-September.

Upcoming Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)…

EUR 1,299 from 1,293

Greek bonds closing at their highs on the closing of the buy-back with 2023s now at 43.50 (13.28% -30bp), unchanged from noon, and 2042s at 34.0 (10.90% -59bp) from yesterday’s closing estimates at 42.50 (13.58%) and 31.75 (11.49%).

All levels COB 17:30 CET

Fast-forward Macro and Events:

Flash PMI releases on Fri 14 everywhere. HSBC China on Thursday.

For the US, FOMC tomorrow & auction supply. Retail Sales and IP next Friday.

Spain and Italian bonds on Thursday.

EC: Wed IP fcst flat after -2.5% MoM sa; Fri flash PMI Comp fcst 46.6 after 46.5, MfG fcst 46.6 after 46.2 and Services fcst 47 after 46.7; Thu EZ CP

GE: Wed 12 CPI fcst unch +2.%; Fri flash PMI MfG fcst 47.3 after 46.8 and Services fcst 50.0 after 49.7

FR: Wed 12 CPI fcst +1.8% after 2.1%, Fri flash PMI MfG fcst 44.9 after 44.5 and Services fcst 46 after 45.8

Italy: Thu CPI fcst unch +2.6%; Fri Government Debt last EUR 1995bn

Spain: Wed Housing transactions; Thu CPI fcst +3% unch, Fri 14 Q3 House Prices last -3.3% QoQ/-14.1% YoY & Labour Costs

US: Wed FOMC; Thu Retail Sales fcst +0.3% after -0.3%, PPI, Claims; Fri CPI, PMI last 52.4, Industrial Production fcst +0.2% after -0.4%, Capacity Utilization.

Click link under title or below for today’s musical support:

2005 re-recorded together with Jeff Beck & Les Paul. Bow to the Master!

Music Link

http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com

Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.

10 Dec 2012 – “ Uh...Uh - Bingo Bongo ” (Adriano Celentano, 1982)

10 Dec 2012 – “ Uh...Uh - Bingo Bongo ” (Adriano Celentano, 1982)

Music Link

Surprisingly stable Risk. BTPs shot down in style. Italy? Down. Chinese data? Partially weak. Japan? In recession. French data? Weak. German data? Strong. Wow! Better have Friday’s PMI numbers really good. Analysts having to reinvent themselves once more as political experts to glare into a smoky crystal ball… Italian contagion contained, for now. Uh…Uh…!

"Uh...Uh - Bingo Bongo " (Bunds 1,30% unch; Spain 5,54% +9; Stoxx 2598 +0,0%; EUR 1,293 -20)

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The US closed mixed on Friday, slightly above European closing time levels, ending a rather low volatility week (except for Apple), still looking for an answer to the Fiscal Cliff issue. UST remained on the heavier side after the NFP, closing the day up 5 at 1.62%.

Chinese early month data dump for November on the disappointing side with the trade balance shrinking to USD 19.6bn (fcst USD 26.9bn after USD 32bn), as exports grew a paltry 2.9% (fcst +9% after 11.6%) and Imports stood at flat (fcst +2% after +2.4%). CPI was tame at +2 (fcst +2.1% after +1.7%), PPI slid 2.2% (fcst -2% after -2.8%). IP grew 10.1% (fcst 9.8% after 9.6%) and Retails Sales were in line at +14.9% YoY (fcst +14.6% after 14.1%). Japan in technical recession with Q3 -0.9% QoQ /3.5% YoY and Q2 revised to -0.1% from flat.

Monti’s resignation announcement with early elections probably to take place in February or March didn’t have much of an impact on the Asian session, which was mostly flat to slightly positive with China still standing out on the stronger side (+1%), continuing the bounced back started last Wednesday, and trading on better IP and Retail Sales, ignoring trade balance woes.

French biz sentiment at 91 (fcst was 92 unchanged) on really soft IP at -0.7% (fcst +0.2% after -2.7%) MoM / -3.6% YoY and Manufacturing at -0.9% MoM (fcst -0.1% after revised lower -3.4%) / -4% YoY. There goes Montebourg’s call for French products… Can’t buy, if not produced.

At least German trade remained solid with Exports up 0.3% (fcst -0.3% after rev. -2.4%) and Imports up a solid +2.5% (fcst +0.4% after rev. -1.4%). Finnish IP better at +0.% (fcst -0.5% after sharply revised lowed -1.1%)

So, now, Italy… Si, claro!  For once lately, markets opened unsurprisingly on the soft side with some serious Risk Off on the Periphery.

Italian 10s spiking out by over 30bp to hit initially 4.85%, dragging Spain along (+13 to 5.58%). Similar picture on the short end with Italy out by 20 and past the 2%-mark to 2.04% with Spain +10 and past the 3%-mark to 3.03%.

OMT virtual support fading, at least on Italy, as no one would be there to credibly sign off any “conditionalities”. Ah. Tough one. Wasn’t thought that way.

Bunds 3 tighter to 1.27%, along with most other EGBs. German 2s flirting with -0.9%.

Equities down 0.75% on ESToxx with Italy down 2%, Spain over 1% and Germany a small quarter.

EUR pushed to the 29-line. Commodities slightly firmer.

Talking of Italy and bad news: Oct IP was worse than expected at -1.1% MoM (fcst -0.3% after rev. -1.3%) / -6.3% YoY wda.

Unfortunately, timing-wise, the Bank of Italy published today that Italian banks were holding a record amount in BTPs (p. 34) of EUR 340bn in October (+ EUR 13bn on the month and an impressive +EUR 121bn since Oct last year) – and there comes your negative loop back on the table… And the long, very long LTRO shadows. And Italian bank shares down the drain (down 6-7%).

At least the EZ Sentix was in line, showing a slight recovery to -16.8 (fcst -16.9 after 18.8), the highest since sentiment started to sink in Q2/2012 (low was -30.2 in Aug).

The Greek buy-back is supposedly doing fine, but was extended until tomorrow noon, boosting bonds the extra mile, up to 42 mid (+125) (13.76% -39bp) for the 2023s and 31.25 (+25) (11.63% -8bp) for the 2042s. Interesting comment in the official statement: “Investors should bear in mind that even if Greece accepts all bonds tendered in the Invitation, it will continue to engage with its official sector creditors in considering further steps to put its debt on a sustainable path. Future measures may not involve an opportunity to exit investments in Designated Securities at the levels offered for this buy back.”

Does this mean that having burnt out the PSI, next will be the OSI - with no further mercy for private holders?

In any case, EUR 27bn supposedly already on the table with the rest, if must be, possibly coming from Greek banks. Yeah, they’ll be recapitalized someow at some stage…

“Bills-only Monday”: EUR 2.2bn sold in 3 and 6m Dutch bills at -0.041% and -0.040%, a record low for the 6m tranche, (from -0.034% and -0.016%), next to the weekly French auction for about EUR 6bn 3, 6 and 12m bills at -0.026%, -0.015% and -0.012% (from -0.22%, -0.008% and +0.016%).

This is the first time ever France has gone negative in 12m bills. Bunga, gracie mille! Signed, Mosco. Uh…Uh!

Belgium for EUR 1.4bn 3m & 12m, Greece for some chunky EUR 2.125bn 4-week and EUR 1.25bn 6m bills tomorrow, next to Spanish EUR 3.5bn 12 & 18m (Last 2.80% and 3.03% ¡Ay ay ay!), next to Austrian bonds 2019 (COB 1.025%) and 2022s (1.700%).

Italy’s EUR 6.5bn 12m bills sales on Wed won’t probably come cheap either (last 1.76%) and Thursday was supposed to see a new Italian 3 YRS, but this might be postponed for something less watched than a new benchmark. Uh…Uh!

Spain intended to go ballsy this week with bonds to be issued, next to 3 and off-the-run 5 YRS, a retap of the 4.90% 2040 (6.135% at COB tonight) announced for Thursday. Choice maintained, however for a safer EUR 2bn-size. Ah…Ah!

New Issues a trickle with the Belgian strategic oil stock operator Apetra issuing EUR 300m 8 YRS at Belgium +43 / MS +80 next to unrated Finnish forest manager Tornator with EUR 250m 7 YRS at MS +200.

Midday picture showing further increased pressure on Italy, especially with the short-end slipping (and Spain 15 wider on average, by domino), while the intial bid on EGB eventually was zoomed on the Hard Core, leaving the Soft Core unchanged to weaker (for Belgium). Schätze zooming in on all-time lows.

Equities down about 1% (spread from Italy -3.5% to Germany -0.4%). Credit wnapping 2.5% wider  with Financials 5% softer. US futures about unchanged, though.

Bunds 1,27% (-3), OBLs 0,27% (-2), BKOs -0,095% (-1,5). UST 1,60% (-2).

Spanish 2s 3,07% (+14), 10s 5,61% (+16). 2-10 YRS spread 254bp (+2).

Italian 2s 2,28% (+44), 10s 4,84% (+31). 2-10 YRS spread 256bp (-13).

EUR stable in the low 29s, but Commodities firming up with Oil 0.75% better. Gold likewise. Copper surfing on Chinese good mood and up 1.5%.

No US figures to start the day nor later to entertain folks. Still, getting equities to crawl back upwards with a EUR regaining some colours at 1.294 and French and German equities back to flat. Periphery bonds regaining a couple of basis points, although not their composure.

US cash open ok, about a 0.25% firmer than Friday European COB, giving European peers a bit of a leg up to close the day, with as well Milan reducing losses to -2.4% from -4% around noon.

Very uncomfortable situation with Italy. No one there to realistically sign off any support call, if needed. Initial quick analyses putting Berlusconi way behind in the polls were a mere consolation. And hopes that Monti might go for some social-democratic left-centre-right solutions are so paved with uncertainties that any electoral spin might be interpreted the way the markets feel that day. Very refreshing. And not like in cool refreshing… Hence, the lack of recovery during today’s session, unlike on Friday.

Situation confirmed with Monti stating at the end of the afternoon he wouldn’t run, acknowledging, too, that there was a risk of populism on economic or European issues, while hoping this could be avoided during the campaign. Uh…uh!

Late afternoon and close confirming the impression that EGBs seem reluctant to move tighter from here, at least for the moment with the underlying Risk strength (ex Periphery bonds and equities) and with no full-scale panic out there.

Bunds closing off tightest levels, as everyone else.

US markets being opened a total side-issue today, especially as totally static. EStoxx futures closing eventually unchanged to a tick.

Credit recovering in Main (closing just 1 wider), but Financials a little shaken (+5, 3.3% wider), Crossover stable in that environment.

Bunds closed at 1,30% (unch), OBLs at 0,30% (+1) and BKOs -0,078% (+0,2). UST at 1,62% (unch) COB.

Spanish 2s at 3,05% (+12), 10s at 5,54% (+9). 2-10 YRS spread 249bp (-3).

Italian 2s at 2,18% (+34), 10s at 4,81% (+28). 2-10 YRS spread 263bp (-6).

Greek bonds closing in stellar manner, adding 50 ticks from noon: up to 42.50 mid (+175 to Fri) (13.58% -57bp) for the 2023s and 31.75 (+75) (11.49% -22bp) for the 2042s.

Not much going in the EUR for the moment. Italian contagion just as much as bay as with equities. Commodities eventually firming up a little.

Take-away: Surprisingly stable equities. BTPs shot down in style. Italy? Down. Chinese data? Partially weak. Japan? In recession. French data? Weak. German data? Strong. Wow! Better have Friday’s PMI numbers really good. Analysts having to reinvent themselves once as more political experts to glare into a smoky crystal ball… Contagion contained, for now. Uh…Uh…!

Outlook: Same on the menu. Sideways upwards, subject to Fiscal Cliff discussions and Italian bunga interventions. Spain hurting, if Italy weakens further. EGBs looking tight and rather unwilling to shed much more yield, unless real panic spreads. Equities amazingly aloof.

ZEW survey tomorrow. Needs to show a brave Germany. Spanish 12m and 18m bill sales.

European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx 2517/2479, DAX 7285/7156, CAC 3462/3441, MIB 15581/15253, IBEX 7816/7591.

US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU 13147/13156/12999, S&P 1417/1413/1386, NASDAQ 3006/3024/2988 with AAPL at 600/623/601.

EUR: 50d 1.292, 100d 1.275 & 200d 1.278. Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273 & 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).

Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.

Closing levels:

10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,30% (unch); Luxembourg 1,39% (+1); Netherlands 1,53% (+1); Finland 1,56% (+1); EU 1,58% (unch); Swaps 1,58% (unch), Austria 1,70% (+1); EIB 1,75% (unch); EFSF 1,87% (+1); France 1,95% (unch); Belgium 2,11% (+2); Italy 4,81% (+28); Spain 5,54% (+9).

10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 9bp (+1); Netherlands 23bp (+1); Finland 26bp (+1); EU 28bp (unch); Swaps 28bp (unch); Austria 40bp (+1); EIB 45bp (unch); EFSF 57bp (+1); France 65bp (unch); Belgium 81bp (+2); Italy 351bp (+28); Spain 424bp (+9).

EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 44bp (unch); 5-10 YRS 82bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 68bp (-2,0).

2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,078% (+0,2) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,30% (+1).

Main +1 to 120 (0,8% wider); Financials +5 to 158 (3,3% wider); Cross +2 to 482 (0,4% wider).

Stoxx Futures at 2598 / +0,0% (from 2597) with S&P minis at 1420 (+0,5% from 1413, at European close).

VIX index at 16,2 after 16,5 yesterday same time.

Oil 86,4/108,1 (WTI/Brent) from 86,2/107,0 (+0,3%/+1,0%). Gold at 1713 after 1701 (+0,7%). Copper at 370 from 365 (+1,4%). CRB at EU COB 295,0 from 296,0 (-0,3%).

BDIY ticking lower, again, and again: -3% to 937 from 966. The last dip from the post-Summer high of 1109 in Oct was halted at 916.

Upcoming Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)…

EUR 1,293 from 1,295

Greek bonds closing in stellar manner, adding 50 ticks from noon: up to 42.50 mid (+175 to Fri) (13.58% -57bp) for the 2023s and 31.75 (+75) (11.49% -22bp) for the 2042s.

Buy-back price proposal: 38.1-40.1% & 30.2-32.2%

All levels COB 17:30 CET

Fast-forward Macro and Events:

ZEW Sentiment on Tue, especially flash PMI releases on Fri 14 everywhere.

For the US, FOMC on Wednesday, Retail Sales and IP next Friday.

Spain and Italian bonds on Thursday.

EC: Tue ZEW Sentiment, Wed IP fcst +0.3% after -2.5% MoM sa; Fri flash PMI Comp fcst 46.6 after 46.5, MfG fcst 46.6 after 46.2 and Services fcst 47 after 46.7; Thu EZ CP

GE: Tue ZEW Sentiment fcst 6 after 5.4, Sentiment fcst -11.5 from -15.7, Wholesale PX last -0.6% MoM; Wed 12 CPI fcst unch +2.%; Fri flash PMI MfG fcst 47.3 after 46.8 and Services fcst 50.0 after 49.7

FR: Wed 12 CPI fcst +1.8% after 2.1%, Fri flash PMI MfG fcst 44.9 after 44.5 and Services fcst 46 after 45.8

Italy: Thu CPI fcst unch +2.6%; Fri Government Debt last EUR 1995bn

Spain: Wed Housing transactions; Thu CPI fcst +3% unch, Fri 14 Q3 House Prices last -3.3% QoQ/-14.1% YoY & Labour Costs

US: Mon nothing; Tue Small Biz Optimism last 93.1, Wholesale Inventories fcst +0.4% after 1.1; Wed FOMC; Thu Retail Sales fcst +0.3% after -0.3%, PPI, Claims; Fri CPI, PMI last 52.4, Industrial Production fcst +0.2% after -0.4%, Capacity Utilization.

Click link under title or below for today’s musical support:

After Bunga Bunga, let’s have a down to earth Bingo Bongo.

Uooo! Uo! Uo! Uo!

Ua ua eh eh ih ih oh oh uh uh

Oh oh oh ua ih ih ih ua ah ah eh eh ih ih

Oh oh uh uh eh eh

Music Link

http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com

Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.