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Spoonful, 1966) </span></b></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
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<br />
<br />A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-3870817717368803442013-06-05T22:40:00.001+02:002013-06-05T22:49:36.192+02:0005 Jun 2013 – “I Got You (I Feel Good)” (James Brown, 1965)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<a href="http://www.blogger.com/null" name="OLE_LINK1"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">05 Jun 2013 – “I Got
You (I Feel Good)” (James Brown, 1965)</span></b></a></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://youtu.be/XgDrJ5Z2rKw">Music Link</a></span></b></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Amazing foot work… Really!</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Blog, I missed you!</span></i><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> As it happens I
didn’t have much to say and it was time to move on. I went through serious
real-time detox in the last couple of months and have now sobered up.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Might thus keep some of the publishing
alive – with a different axe... Still need to find out what I will write about.
Like finding a new path, or so… In the meantime, it might keep my fingers
agile.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Gave some thoughts about a new blog, or
blog name, but, hey, it’s still <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">A View</b></span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;"> From MY Screens: </span></b><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">While not having
that huge 2 by 2 square in the trading room anymore, I still run a decent
vertical choice in screen sizes on a personal basis: iPhone, iPad, MacBook, large screen PC, TV sets… </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">The Blackberry will be </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">overflowing and </span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">dead soon… It’s not mine anymore. At
least I don’t consider it that way. <i>Out you go little screen!</i></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<i><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">You only lose what you cling to… Buddha</span></i></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Yep</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">If you were an avid reader of AVFMS for
market update reasons, I might share some musings once in a while, but probably
won’t go back into the minute by minute, data by data, bp by bp analysis
anymore. So best unsubscribe.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">If I find some something more exciting than
writing about the serious froth in the bubble (Yes, it’s written risk f*** underpriced
all over the walls) or the uselessness of trying to outwit the Central Banks
Put, I’ll share with you.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">But for the moment, I’ll let that be…</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">If you liked the musical choice, I’ll try
to keep up with the search and share, maybe even with the “mood of the day”-fitting
search and share.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Hang in there. Give me a couple of days or
weeks to get back into the groove.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Hey, I was fired last week. I still need
some grieving time.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: .0001pt; margin-bottom: 0cm; mso-add-space: auto;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Then again, first time in 25 years that I
don’t have a professional follow-up in finance lined up.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Odd.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">Empowering.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt;">I feel good.</span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><a href="http://youtu.be/XgDrJ5Z2rKw">Music Link</a></span></b></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-34696780841190313492013-01-02T17:00:00.001+01:002013-01-02T17:01:02.299+01:0002 Jan 2013 – “ Rock And Roll ” (Led Zeppelin, 1972)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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And Roll ” (Led Zeppelin, 1972)</span></b>
</span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/tMzuW4yBfAE" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">A View From My
Screens in its daily format will be put on hiatus, at least for a while.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">I hope my posts
brought some insights and information and were somehow useful to you, next to
the discovery of musical titles you might never have heard of before or had
forgotten existed.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">I thank all the
readers, who bore with my musical choices, be it directly on my own site and
later through the mirrors on </span></i><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Zerohedge</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">, the
</span></i><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">FTAlphaville</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> Long Room as well
as the </span></i><a href="http://www.minyanville.com/" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Minyanville</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">blog section and
I thank these sites for offering me such a broad platform.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Fully up and running
since late Spring 2012, I estimate total reads to be have been around 350k.</span></i></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> </span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">It has been
gratifying, journalistically satisfying as well as simply flattering being read
so regularly, but I’m looking for more time to deepen reflection about next
steps, which is not compatible with being stuck behind my screens.</span></i></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Should you miss my
posts, I’d be certainly saddened, but glad to hear about it. Let me know.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Any suggestion
about how to make aviewfrommyscreens.com part of a broader project or how to
leverage its content or my experience would be warmly welcome. Any other advice
would be certainly welcome, too.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">As the Mayan due-date was obviously a MISS </span></i></b><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">(must have been seasonally-adjusted</span></i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">, instead of nsa YTD calculations or any
other similar type of excuse analysts might come up with ex-ante…)</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Healthy, Happy & Successful 2013 !!!</span></i></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">As usual:</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All
comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">A View From Screens</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/blog/94959" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Zerohedge AVFMS</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://discussions.ft.com/longroom/tables/fixed-income" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">FT Alphaville / The Long Room</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://blogs.minyanville.com/avfms/" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Minyanville AVFMS</span></i></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Need
more time to dig out even better classics …</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/tMzuW4yBfAE" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-73238045657051260212012-12-21T17:53:00.000+01:002012-12-21T18:01:23.121+01:0021 Dec 2012 – “ Blue Christmas ” (The Dread Zeppelin, 2002)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">21 Dec 2012 – “ Blue
Christmas ” (The Dread Zeppelin, 2002)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdxi-RD8dTQ&feature=share&list=PLBDB67B0F52D4C111" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Trailing the US, as not much else to do.
EGBs firming up, but mostly because they‘re supposed to do so, as Equities end a
little softer, because they have to, as well. Credit likewise. So no Risk highs
under the Xmas three… All because of the US. Blue.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"Blue Christmas" (Bunds 1,38% -4;
Spain 5,23% +1; Stoxx 2644 -0,6%; EUR 1,318 -40)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">In reversal of Wednesday’s close, Thursday
ended on a positive note in the US,
up about half a percent, as Fiscal Cliff issues seemed on the way of getting
solved. Unfortunately, these hopes were then crushed after the markets closed,
leading to a 1.5% drop in futures. <i>2012 in a day: Waiting for decisions that don’t
come, although everyone guesstimates that it’ll go the right way. To make the
2012 replay really complete, we even had another mini flash crash, sending
S&P futures down 3.5%, before rebounding. Ah, 2012…</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Asia closed the week by and large in the
red, following the US
futures’ lead, anywhere between 0.25% and 1% lower.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Cyprus</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
rating cut to CCC+ with negative outlook from B by S&P</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Isn't it funny that the world is supposed to end on
a quadruple-witching day for US markets? Then again, it is unclear at what
time? EOD? Tulum time (East Coast), Kaminaljuyu (near the West Coast)?</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Whatever…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Latest batch of macro data mixed, as well,
to start the day: German Consumer Confidence about in line and trailing
sideways (5.6 versus 5.9 forecast after rev. 5.8); Finnish unemployment jumping
to 7.3% from 69%; French Biz Confidence rising to 89 from 88, as expected,
Production Outlook better at -38 (fcst -42 after -40, rev. -42), but Own
Production ticking down to -9 from -7; Spanish PPI lower than expected at 2.8%
YoY (fcst 3.1% after rev 3.4%). INSEE growth outlook for France at odds
with the government view, seeing 0.1% for 2013.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Start of day in light Risk Off mood, given
the overnight developments, with equities opening about 0.50% lower, roughly in
line with the US
futures.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs, of course, on the slightly firmer
side, but not excessively so. Bunds -2bp back to 1.40%, others in line.
Periphery some 1-2 softer. Classic. Credit mixed with Main
a tick softer, Financials a tick firmer and Crossover 2% wider.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR down to below 1.32 from 1.325 Thursday
night, but eventually settling in around 1.322, unchanged from yesterday’s
close. Oil a bit softer and Gold half a percent firmer, right at 1650.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No roaring desperation, thus.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No government supply.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.treasuryfinland.fi/Public/download.aspx?ID=86418&GUID=%7b203C955C-293B-4C8A-8144-B11AF2EFB189%7d" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Finnish 2013 funding</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> needs will be EUR 18.5bn, of which 70% in
bonds. So again, not really the sovereign to flood the markets unduly.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues market shut.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Cyprus</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
bail-out / write-off questions doing rounds. Just to put things back into
context: Cyprus’ GDP is shy
of EUR 18bn (versus Greece’s
EUR 208bn). Of course sustainability of its debt is in question, but the sums
involved are a far cry from the ones that have been (and will be) spent on Greece or the
other GIIPS peers. This one ought to be manageable by the EZ, if the
proverbially fan gets hit…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain, by the way, is already massaging
opinion that it WILL miss its 4.5% deficit targets for 2012 (…), knowing that
YTD November figures are already at -4.37%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities ticking a little lower by the end
of the morning (-0.6%) with Core EGBs firming up, or vice versa. Periphery
bonds softening, too, with Italy
ticking wider. Soft Core flat.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,40% (-2), OBLs 0,36% (-2), BKOs
-0,008% (-1). UST 1,76% (-3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s 2,73% (-2), 10s 5,24% (+2). 2-10
YRS spread 251bp (+4).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s 1,82% (+5), 10s 4,47% (+5). 2-10
YRS spread 265bp (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR back right on the 32-handle.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Quite a positive data flow to kick off the afternoon
with Chicago FED at +0.1 after -0.56, Personal Income & Spending +0.6%
(twice the forecast), respectively +0.4% (fcst +0.3% after rev. 0.1% and +0.4%
after rev. -0.1%) and Durable Goods up 0.7% (fcst +0.3% after rev. +1.1%) with
the EX component jumping<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>1.6% (fcst
-0.2% after rev. +1.9%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Looks good, but not as good as Fiscal Cliff
deal, hence next to no reaction at all.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US equities gapping down 0.75%-1%, knowing
that the closing minutes yesterday pushed up stocks forcefully 0.25% higher.
Let’s say limited damage with indices about 0.5% lower from European COB
Thursday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Michigan (Non) Confidence printed at 72.9
(fcst 75 after 74.5), quite a miss.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bit of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROff</i>
end of day. No new European highs to put under the three… A bit blue. -0.4% is
limited damage, though, and Credit about 2% wider is not surprising, given the
tightest levels seen yesterday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Note the surge just below 20 at open in the
VIX (from a 7-day low at 15.5 on Tuesday).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs (sluggishly) moving tighter, given the
environment, but I’m not sure that this is really a convinced move. Classic
<i>ROff </i>formation with Bunds -4, Hard Core -3, Soft Core -1, Belgium +1, as for
Spain, and Italy the laggard at +5 in expectation of Monti’s official
resignation tonight (and where’s the news in that?).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">On the week, Bunds a bit softer at +3, the
rest more or less unchanged, Belgium very tight at -6 and the Periphery
brothers at -16 & -17. Spain again through 400 to Bunds, but still
struggling to break 5.15%-5.25%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,38% (-4), OBLs at 0,35%
(-4) and BKOs -0,010% (-1,3). UST at 1,75% (-4) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,73% (-2), 10s at 5,23%
(+1). 2-10 YRS spread 250bp (+3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,84% (+7), 10s at 4,47%
(+5). 2-10 YRS spread 263bp (-2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greeks shedding some of the latest gains
with 2023s at 49.50 (-50 to 11.60% +13bp) and 2042s likewise minus 50 ticks to
37.00 (10.21% +12bp 10.09%). Still, one must bow to a nice weekly move, as they
closed last Friday at 45.0 (12.83%) and 34.0 (10.90%), and the previous week at
40.75 (14.15%) and at 31.0 (11.71%). <i>And Xmas is only in January in Greece.</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Portuguese 10s unchanged at 6.89%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR softer during the afternoon on <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROff</i> (and US figures fundamentally
looking better). Metals dump by Mayan hedge funds over with Silver recovering, Gold
up over 1% and Copper following. Oil 1% softer. Mixed picture.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Still watching the Baltic Dry getting
wacked on a daily basis and getting itchy seeing my coalmine canary getting so
pale. Repeat. Repeat. Repeat.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Trailing the US, as not much
else to do. EGBs firming up, but mostly because they‘re supposed to do so, as Equities
end a little softer, because they have to, as well. Credit likewise. So no Risk
highs under the Xmas three… All because of the US. Blue.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">I
wish all readers a festive holiday season and all the Best for 2013 (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Mayans permitting</i>).</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2543/2513, DAX 7342/7247, CAC 3505/3480, MIB 15647/15494, IBEX 7860/7738.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13097/13193/13011, S&P 1414/1419/1389, NASDAQ 2987/3033/2991 with AAPL at
575/616/601.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.295, 100d 1.283 & 200d
1.279. Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 to Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273
& <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1.315</b>, then 1.349 (50%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,38% (-4);
Luxembourg 1,42% (-3); Netherlands 1,56% (-3); Finland 1,58% (-5); EU 1,60%
(-3); Swaps 1,62% (-2), Austria 1,75% (-1); EIB 1,76% (-3); EFSF 1,85% (-2);
France 1,98% (-1); Belgium 2,05% (+1); Italy 4,47% (+5); Spain 5,23% (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 4bp (+1);
Netherlands 18bp (+1); Finland 20bp (-1); EU 22bp (+1); Swaps 24bp (+2);
Austria 37bp (+3); EIB 38bp (+1); EFSF 47bp (+2); France 60bp (+3); Belgium
67bp (+5); Italy 309bp (+9); Spain 385bp (+5).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 42bp (-3,0); 5-10
YRS 81bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 66bp (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,010% (-1,3) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,35% (-4).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main +2 to 111 (1,8% wider); Financials +3
to 138 (2,2% wider); Cross +12 to 457 (2,7% wider).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2644 / -0,4% (from 2655)
with S&P minis at 1421 (-0,9% from 1434, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 18,9 after 17,2 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 88,4/108,8 (WTI/Brent) from 89,6/110,0 (-1,3%/-1,0%).
Gold at 1657 after 1639 (+1,1%). Copper at 356 from 353 (+0,8%). CRB at EU COB
294,0 from 296,0 (-0,7%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
a fourth week of continuous consolidation in the Baltic Dry, down to 700 from
708 (-1.1% on the day and -10.7% on the week). I reckon 661 and 647 next stops:</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The latest dip from the post-Summer high of
1109 in Oct had been halted at 916, before that we slipped from 1162 in July to
661 mid-September. 21st century low was 647 in Feb 2012. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Upcoming Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)… Seems
a little far, no?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,318 from 1,322</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greeks shedding some of the latest gains
with 2023s at 49.5 (-50 to 11.60% +13bp) and 2042s likewise minus 50 ticks to
37 (10.21% +12bp 10.09%). Still, one must bow to a nice weekly move, as they
closed last Friday at 45.0 (12.83%) and 34.0 (10.90%), and the previous week at
40.75 (14.15%) and at 31.0 (11.71%). And Xmas is only in January in Greece.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Dragging into Year End. For obvious
reasons, an ultra-light slate next week…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EZ: No data next week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: No data next week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Thu 27 Dec Cons Confidence, PPI,
Claims, Q3 GDP revision</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Thu 27 Dec Biz Confidence, Fri 28
PPI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Thu 27 Dec Mortgages; Fri 28 Retail
Sales</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Wed 26 Dec Case Shiller; Thu 27 Claims,
Cons Conf, New Homes Sales; Fri 28 Pending Home Sales</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Definitively
the right time to dig and unearth some more Xmas rock songs…</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdxi-RD8dTQ&feature=share&list=PLBDB67B0F52D4C111" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">And
I know you’ll like </span></i><a href="http://youtu.be/pXKSQEecR0A" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">THAT</span></i></b></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> …<span class="MsoHyperlink"></span></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">A View From My
Screens in its daily format will be put on hiatus, at least for a while.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">I hope my posts
brought some insights and information and were somehow useful to you, next to
the discovery of musical titles you might never have heard of before or had forgotten
existed.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">I thank all the
readers, who bore with my musical choices, be it directly on my own site and
later through the mirrors on </span></i><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Zerohedge</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">, the
</span></i><a href="http://ftalphaville.ft.com/" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">FTAlphaville</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"> Long Room as well
as the </span></i><a href="http://www.minyanville.com/" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Minyanville</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> </i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">blog section and
thank these sites for offering me such a broad platform.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">It has been
gratifying, journalistically satisfying as well as simply flattering being read
so regularly, but I’m looking for more time to deepen next
steps, which is not compatible with being stuck behind my screens.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Should you miss my
posts, I’d be certainly saddened, but glad to hear about it. Let me know.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Any suggestion
about how to make aviewfrommyscreens.com part of a broader project or how to
leverage its content or my experience would be warmly welcome. Any other advice
would be certainly welcome, too.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Healthy, Happy
& Successful 2013!!!</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">As usual:</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Don’t hesitate to exchange with the author. All
comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">A View From Screens</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.zerohedge.com/blog/94959" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Zerohedge AVFMS</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://discussions.ft.com/longroom/tables/fixed-income" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">FT Alphaville / The Long Room</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="line-height: normal; margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://blogs.minyanville.com/avfms/" target="_blank"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;">Minyanville AVFMS</span></i></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt;"></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-11785014493458624592012-12-20T17:50:00.000+01:002012-12-20T18:06:07.968+01:0020 Dec 2012 – “ Merry Christmas (I Don't Want To Fight Tonight) ” (The Ramones, 1989)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">20 Dec 2012 – “ </span></b><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Me</span></b></span><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">rry Christmas (I Don't Want To Fight
Tonight) ” (The Ramones, 1989)</span></b></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/of2tzbVHYCY" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs and Equities rather a side-story today,
as mainly static. EUR, too. Spain ticking in. Italian 2s on new lows (with the
old reference nearing 1.5%). Good US GDP, bad Gold Dump Party (GDP, too). Worse
Silver sell-out. Metal weakness? <i>Maybe the Mayans are getting rid of their stocks
before tomorrow?</i> Another shy EStoxx high and Risk low. Don’t fight (the trend)…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"Merry Christmas (I Don't Want To
Fight Tonight)" (Bunds 1,42% unch; Spain 5,22% -3; Stoxx 2661 +0,1%; EUR
1,322 -40)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The carefree drift couldn’t last forever,
could it? “No news, good news, until proven otherwise, and a reason to tick
ever higher” was (only slightly, though) derailed last night after initial
compromise talks on the Fiscal Cliff soured with alternative plans prioritized.
Bah. Made for a -0.75% close, which in itself doesn’t look devastating, but,
given the size of movements lately, is a very visible red.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No real follow-up into the Asian session,
though. Nikkei down 1% after the month-long rally. Most other Asian places
rather up 0.3-0.5%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian elections slated for 24 Feb with
Monti to address the nation over the weekend.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The Greek FinMin speaking in the FT of
“Make or Break 2013”
with a very honest assessment that “the break would be if the political system
finds the situation too difficult to handle”, which could lead to bankruptcy
and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Grexit</i>. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">That seems more like a programme to me… At some stage, if the 50%-plus
unemployment can’t be resolved, someone might just pull the plug on paying
those debts and suggest that a Drachma re-introduction cum default might be a
more realistic way to handle things. I personally do believe this.</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No major data on the plate. German PPI
pretty much as expected at -0.1% MoM / +1.4% after 1.5% YoY. Spanish Housing
Permits at -34.3% YoY after -51.6%. Dutch <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">tristesse</i>
with Nov Unemployment ticking up to a round and unprecedented 7% (from 6.8% and
a 3.7% low in Aug 2008), the highest since pushing Dec Consumer Confidence to
-39 from -37, with Oct Spending down 2.4% YoY. Italian Retail Sales under
consensus of being unchanged, down 1% MoM after -0.1% / -3.8% after -1.6% YoY.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European open hence on the cautious side,
down from yesterday’s yet another lofty highs. Equities down 0.5%. EUR back
well through the 1.33 flashed yesterday at 1.323. EGBs flattish, a bit firmer
in the Soft Core with France
back through 2%. EUR curve flat.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1.42% (unch) and UST likewise
unchanged at 1.78%</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Periphery 2bp softer, in rather Pavlovian
manner, given the softer Risk environment. Credit 2% wider from yesterday’s
tight close. Commodities all about a quarter softer.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds undeterred by whatever the
Greek FM might have said.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">But why so pessimistic? About 90 minutes
into the session, equities ticked back up to their closing levels and all were
friends again.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs about static…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No government supply.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.deutsche-finanzagentur.de/fileadmin/Material_Deutsche_Finanzagentur/PDF/Institutionelle_Investoren/Emissionsplanung_2013_en.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">German 2013 funding plans</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> showing a slight decrease to EUR 250bn, of
which EUR 173bn in bonds, from EUR 255bn this year. 2012 average funding costs
were a mere 0.56% with total outstanding costs running at 3.6%. Q1 will see EUR
65bn, split EUR 44bn bonds / EUR 21bn bills. Same for Q2. Q3 EUR 43bn +20bn. Q4
EUR 42bn +15bn.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">One “Germany Bond” to be sold next year
(joint Bund / Länder issue), although the subject remains far from clear with
some Länder already announcing not to opt in these deals. Looks already like a
potential dog, trading in-between Bunds, KfW bonds and German Länder jumbos…
Introduction of CAC.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.aft.gouv.fr/articles/indicative-state-medium-and-long-term-borrowing-programme-for-2013_10722.html" target="_blank">French 2013 funding plans</a> released in Tango with EUR 169bn of medium and long term
bonds on the chop. CACs from Feb 2013 on. New lines to have May and November
maturities.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues market dormant.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">By
mistake, I put yesterday’s 1 YR BNPP deal at EUR 1bn, although it ended up only
a mere EUR 300m. So basically more a money-market operation cum private placement.
To be forgotten. Market is pretty much closed.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Risk recovering step by step throughout the
end of the morning into the afternoon, but forensic movements…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Kicking off the afternoon with the latest
US Q3 GDP revision wringing out a much better than expected 3.1% QoQ annualized
(revision forecast was for 2.8% after 2.7%). Claims about on consensus at 361k
(fcst 360k after 343k, rev. 344k) and slightly higher Continuous ones seen at 3225k
(fcst 3200k after 3198k, rev. 3213k).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not much GDP excitement, though; confirming
European equities in the green, but just so. EUR drifting back up, bizarrely,
but probably simply flow-driven. Gold weaker again, trading down to 1350s (with
Silver down 3.5% and down over 10% from an intermediate rebound to 33.7
Wednesday one week ago).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Nice set of numbers to end macro supply for
the day with Existing Homes sales for Nov at 5.04m (fcst 4.90m after rev. 4.76m)
and Philly Fed very strong at +8.1 (fcst -3 after -10.7). Markets focused on
Fiscal Cliff non-resolution and wondering at what time Obama is supposed to fly
to Hawaii tomorrow evening (…).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Just so much pressure on equities to pin Europe back to yesterday’s closing levels (and the US 0.75% below European COB)
and pinch EGBs a little tighter across the board with Spain the lead (-6),
Italy the laggard at +1, Belgium on the ramp (-6), Soft Core (-3) and then Hard
Core (-1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Static dramatic. Boredom in disguise.
Periphery split with Italy stuck at 300 to Bunds, but Spain tackling again year
lows in 10s. Short Italians fine, though, with the former 2 YRS reference moving
towards 1.50%. Belgium sneaking up from behind and tightening in further to
France, having to hide back below 2% in order not to be overtaken.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greeks stabilizing over the moon with 2023s
at 50.0, unchanged after yesterday 500 ticks surge, (11.47%) and 2042s adding
50 ticks to 37.50 (10.09% -11bp), after yesterday’s +275. Interesting (but that’s
for next year) to have discussions about the IMF asking (realistically) a Cyprus
haircut before assistance… But, that ought to be haggled out next year.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities just so slightly green. Credit
again a couple of ticks lower, though. Careful, on a final squeeze the Main
will hit 100 by the end of the year.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,42% (unch), OBLs at 0,38%
(unch) and BKOs 0,003% (+1), in positive territory. UST at 1,79% (+1) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,75% (-6), 10s at 5,22% (-3).
2-10 YRS spread 247bp (+3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,62% (-3), 10s at 4,42%
(+4). 2-10 YRS spread 280bp (+7).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Portuguese 10s at 6.89%, unchanged.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities eking out 0.1% and yet another
high at <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">arggghh lift lift</i> 2662 (+1)(tick).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR running out of steam after being bid in
the early afternoon. Metals wacked with Gold down 2% past 1650, Silver down
over 4.5% and Copper 1.7%. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Maybe Mayans
are getting rid of their stocks before tomorrow?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Still watching the Baltic Dry getting
wacked on a daily basis and getting itchy seeing my coalmine canary getting so
pale. Repeat.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: EGBs and Equities rather
a side-story today, as mainly static. EUR, too. Spain ticking in. Italian 2s on
new lows (with the old reference nearing 1.5%). Good US GDP, bad Gold Dump Party
(GDP, too). Worse Silver sell-out. Metal weakness? <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Maybe the Mayans are getting rid of their stocks before tomorrow? </i>Another
shy EStoxx high and Risk low. Don’t fight (the trend)…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Same. Sideways with an upwards
bias, subject to Fiscal Cliff discussions.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Just the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">saaaaaaaaaaaame</i> – until Santa comes. Or the Mayans. Tomorrow. Or
not.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Consumer confidence in German and Italy, Biz Confidence in France, all expected about unchanged a tick
better.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Busier US with Chicago FED last -0.56,
Personal Income & Spending fcst +0.3% after 0% and +0.4% after -0.2%,
Durable Goods fcst +0.3% after rev. +0.5%/ EX -0.2% after rev. +1.8%, Michigan
Confidence fcst 75 after 74.5.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European
50 & 100d averages: EStoxx 2539/2509, DAX 7334/7237, CAC 3500/3476, MIB
15631/15469, IBEX 7849/7719.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US
50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU 13103/13190/13009, S&P 1414/1418/1389,
NASDAQ 2988/3033/2990 with AAPL at 578/617/601.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.295, 100d 1.282 & 200d 1.279.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 to Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273 & <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1.315</b>, then 1.349 (50%).</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,42% (unch);
Luxembourg 1,45% (-1); Netherlands 1,59% (-3); Finland 1,63% (-1); EU 1,63%
(-1); Swaps 1,64% (-1), Austria 1,76% (-1); EIB 1,79% (-2); EFSF 1,87% (-2);
France 1,99% (-2); Belgium 2,04% (-6); Italy 4,42% (+4); Spain 5,22% (-3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 3bp (-1);
Netherlands 17bp (-3); Finland 21bp (-1); EU 21bp (-1); Swaps 22bp (-1);
Austria 34bp (-1); EIB 37bp (-2); EFSF 45bp (-2); France 57bp (-2); Belgium
62bp (-6); Italy 300bp (+4); Spain 380bp (-3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 45bp (unch); 5-10
YRS 81bp (-1,0) 10-30 YRS 66bp (-1,0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,003% (+1) (Ooops!
Positive!) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,38% (0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main -1 to 109 (-0,9% tighter); Financials
-3 to 135 (-2,2% tighter); Cross +1 to 445 (0,2% wider).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2661 / +0,1% (from 2658)
with S&P minis at 1434 (-0,5% from 1441, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 17,2 after 16,5 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 89,6/110,0 (WTI/Brent) from 89,8/110,1
(-0,2%/-0,1%). Gold at 1639 after 1672 (-2,0%). Copper at 353 from 359 (-1,7%).
CRB unch at 296 EU COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Daily
Wack the Balt! Purge on-going and confirming a fourth week of consolidation,
down to 708 (-1.7%). I reckon 661 and 647 next stops soon.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The latest dip from the post-Summer high of
1109 in Oct had been halted at 916, before that we slipped from 1162 in July to
661 mid-September. 21<sup>st</sup> century low was 647 in Feb 2012. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Upcoming Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)…
Seems a little far, no?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,322 from 1,326</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greeks stabilizing over the moon with 2023s
at 50.0, unchanged after yesterday 500 ticks surge, (11.47%) and 2042s adding
50 ticks to 37.50 (10.09% -11bp), after yesterday’s +275.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Dragging into Year End. For obvious
reasons, an ultra-light slate next week…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EZ: No data next week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Fri Consumer Confidence fcst 5.9 unch.
No data next week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Fri Biz Confidence fcst 89 after 88.
Thu 27 Dec Cons Confidence, PPI, Claims, Q3 GDP revision</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Fri Consumer Confidence fcst 85.1
after 84.8; Thu 27 Dec Biz Confidence, Fri 28 PPI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Fri PPI -0.2% after -0.1% MoM; Thu
27 Dec Mortgages; Fri 28 Retail Sales</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Busy Friday with Chicago FED, Personal
Income & Spending fcst +0.3% after 0% and +0.4% after -0.2%, Durable Goods
fcst +0.3% after rev. +0.5%/ EX -0..2% after rev. +1.8%, Michigan Conf fcst 75
after 74.5; Wed 26 Dec Case Shiller; Thu 27 Claims, Cons Conf, New Homes Sales;
Fri 28 Pending Home Sales</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Definitively
the right time to dig and unearth some more Xmas rock songs…</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/of2tzbVHYCY" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">And
I know you’d like </span></i><a href="http://youtu.be/F3J0iwwsq-w" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">THIS</span></i></b></a><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> from the same album probably more…Less festive. More fun, though.<span class="MsoHyperlink"></span></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-42231338555728126692012-12-19T17:56:00.000+01:002012-12-19T18:08:24.665+01:0019 Dec 2012 – “Oh Come All Ye Faithful ” (Twisted Sister, 2006)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<![endif]--><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">19 Dec 2012 – “Oh
Come All Ye Faithful ” (Twisted Sister, 2006)</span></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/De47fjH6RKY" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Would be easy to call this boring, given
the state of the market and volumes, but undercover Risk On definitively there.
Greek 10s over the moon and far away (up 500 ticks)… Strong EUR. Seems a little
easy, but who wants to fight? It’s Yule Time – at least until Friday, then
we’ll see what the Mayans really meant.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"Oh Come All Ye Faithful" (Bunds
1,42% +0; Spain 5,25% -4; Stoxx 2658 +0,4%; EUR 1,326 +40)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Another good US close on Tuesday with the
S&P adding yet another 1%, as FC discussions seem bound the right way.
NASDAQ close shy of 1.5% and all indices closing pretty much HOD. Even Apple is
eventually getting greener, too, up 2.90%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Asia</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
seems to be stuck in a year-end drift as well, positively cautious up 0.5% on
average. Shanghai flat. Japan roaring ahead, closing well over 2%, now up
nearly 11% from last month.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">S&P Upgrading Greece from Selective default
all the way up to B-, knowing that that this was less because of the intrinsic
values and virtues of Greece,
but because of the proven strong EZ support.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No data to kick off the day.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">End of year drift. What can one expect?
Tendency is to slightly higher risk, but with no impetus for a furious
rally.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs by and large flat to kick-off the day
after a slightly wobbly start. Bunds 1.42% unchanged with UST finally coming in
1 bp to 1.80%. Nothing else really changed. Periphery quiet.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities a couple of ticks better, but just
a couple, flashing a light green. Credit unchanged on its lowest level in ages.
Commodities about unchanged, if it wasn’t for Gold ticking lower by the day
(1674). EUR once more a bit firmer at 1.324.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">German IFO mixed, but with a final number
just fine enough to keep things balanced: Business Climate a tick better than
expected at 102.4 (fcst 102 after 101.4), Current Assessment a little bleak at
107.1 (fcst about unchanged at 108.0 after 108.1), but with a better
expectation component at 97.9 (fcst 96.4 after 95.2). Confirms the mood and
latest figures: Q4 is in the dumps, but everyone (and all equity buyers) is convinced that things will firm up next year.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian Industrial Orders sluggish at 0%
MoM sa (fcst +1% after -4%) and Industrial Sales at -0.2% MoM sa after -4.2%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Finally, unlike in the US, it won’t be
Construction that will pull Europe out of the ditch with Output down 4.1%
YoY wda (after -2.6%, revised lower to -3.8%) / -1.6% MoM sa after -1.3%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bah. Whatever. Figures were all good enough
for little bit of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROn</i> during the rest
of the morning. Equities up 0.5%, EGBs 1 bp softer and the Periphery ticking
tighter.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No government supply.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues market dormant, outside BNPP
printing a EUR 1bn 1YR-bond at 3mE +28.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not much to mention with the midday picture
about static on all counts, expect for Greek bonds</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities up a small 0.5%. Credit flat.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,43% (+1), OBLs 0,39% (unch), BKOs
-0,008% (-0,5). UST 1,81% (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s 2,82% (-1), 10s 5,26% (-3). 2-10
YRS spread 244bp (-3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s 1,66% (-6), 10s 4,38% (-7). 2-10
YRS spread 272bp (-1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR still pushing ad push at 1.327. Oil up
a small 1% with Gold down 1% to 1668.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek 2023s at 48.25 +325 (11.92% -92bp)
and 2042s +275 at 37.00 (10.20% -64bp)!!! Wow, all because of S&P putting
it back to B-???</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR ticking slightly over 1.33 ahead of the
US open, highest since breaking down in an epic move on <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/04/04-april-2012-this-is-not-love-song.html" target="_blank">04 Apr</a></b> (Hi 1.334 Lo 1.311, after FED minutes showed <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Big Ben</i> then no yet ready for QE3, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Supa Mario</i> then not unleashing magic yet and Spain widening over a
quarter on a yet again botched auction).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">So, back to the future? Not on all counts:
Bunds then 1.80%, but Spain spread to Bunds 389, Main then 130, Gold trampled
from 1672 down to 1616 that day, Brent at $123 and CRB 306, S&P then 1400,
EStoxx 2400… Some things change, some don’t…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Kicking off the afternoon with the only US
figures for the day with Housing Starts falling more than expected to 861k
(fcst 873k after 894k, rev. a lucky 888k), although Building Permits rose to
899k (fcst 870k after 868k). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Put the
blame for not starting on Sandy.
That should do…</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Talking of Spain, its bad bank SAREB is supposed to
issue next week (<i>to whom?</i>) and Rajoy has decided not to decide on an a bail-out
(<i>for the moment</i>), which he boasts is a decision.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Plan A, B, C, D juggling in the US a little
unnerving and keeping US indices close to home and capping European exuberance.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Treasuries and EGBs firming up just a
little on back of that.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Periphery firming, kicking Soft Core yields
back tighter.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">And that’s it, folks… Still won’t get
more exciting in the coming days.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Risk On in disguise on-going with the Main
closing at 110. Soft Core EGBs on the ramp with Belgium zooming close to its
all-time low of 10 days ago and closing in on France (9 bp spread)(<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Maybe because the wealth French tax exiles are
seen bringing to the country???</i>).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greeks now over the moon with especially 2023s
at 50.0 +500 points (11.46% -138bp) and 2042s +275 at 37.00 (10.20% -64bp)!!!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,42% (unch), OBLs at 0,38%
unch) and BKOs -0,008% (-0,5). UST at 1,78% (-3) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,81% (-2), 10s at 5,25% (-4).
2-10 YRS spread 244bp (-3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,65% (-7), 10s at 4,38%
(-7). 2-10 YRS spread 273bp (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Portuguese 10s at 6.89%, 11bp tighter.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities eking out another 0.5% and another
high at 2661.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR still riding (ever) high(er).
Commodities mixed again with Oil split up (WTI 2% and Brent 1.2% to just over $110),
Gold softer and especially Copper losing some shine at 359 (-1.6%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Still watching the Baltic Dry getting
wacked on a daily basis and getting itchy seeing my coalmine canary getting so
pale.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Would be easy to call this
boring, given the state of the market and volumes, but undercover Risk On definitively
there. Greek 10s over the moon and far away (up 500 ticks)… Strong EUR. Seems a
little easy, but who wants to fight? It’s Yule Time – at least until Friday,
then we’ll see what the Mayans really meant.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Same. Sideways with an upwards
bias, subject to Fiscal Cliff discussions.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Just the saaaaaaaaaaaame – until Santa
comes. Or the Mayans.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">We will have yet another revision of US Q3
GDP with an uptick to 2.8% QoQ seen. Claims forecast 360k after 343k and
Continuous ones seen at 3200k after 3198k, Existing Homes sales for Nov fcst
4.90m after 4.79m, Philly Fed fcst -3 after -10.7</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2535/2506, DAX 7325/7228, CAC 3494/3472, MIB 15614/15445, IBEX 7837/7704.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13110/13187/13007, S&P 1414/1417/1388, NASDAQ 2990/3031/2989 with AAPL at
580/618/601.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.294, 100d 1.281 & 200d 1.279.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 to Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273&<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1.315</b>, then 1.349 (50%).</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,42% (unch);
Luxembourg 1,46% (+1); Netherlands 1,62% (-1); Finland 1,64% (unch); EU 1,64%
(+1); Swaps 1,65% (+1), Austria 1,77% (-4); EIB 1,81% (+1); EFSF 1,89% (unch);
France 2,01% (-3); Belgium 2,10% (-7); Italy 4,38% (-7); Spain 5,25% (-4).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 4bp (+1); Netherlands
20bp (-1); Finland 22bp (unch); EU 22bp (+1); Swaps 23bp (+1); Austria 35bp (-4);
EIB 39bp (+1); EFSF 47bp (unch); France 59bp (-3); Belgium 68bp (-7); Italy
296bp (-7); Spain 383bp (-4).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 45bp (unch); 5-10
YRS 82bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 67bp (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,008% (-0,5) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,38% (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main -1 to 110 (-0,9% tighter); Financials
-1 to 138 (-0,7% tighter); Cross -1 to 444 (-0,2% tighter).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2658 / +0,4% (from 2647)
with S&P minis at 1441 (+0,3% from 1437, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 16,5 after 15,5 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 89,8/110,1 (WTI/Brent) from 88,0/108,8
(+2,0%/+1,2%). Gold at 1672 after 1685 (-0,7%). Copper at 359 from 365 (-1,6%).
CRB at EU COB unch at 296,0.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Wack
the Balt! Daily slide. Baltic Dry purge on-going and confirming a fourth week
of consolidation, down another 3% to 720. I reckon 661 and 647 next stops soon.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The latest dip from the post-Summer high of
1109 in Oct had been halted
at 916, before that we slipped from 1162 in
July to 661 mid-September. 21<sup>st</sup> century low was 647 in Feb 2012. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Upcoming Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)… Seems a little far, no?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,326 from 1,322</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greeks now over the moon with especially 2023s
at 50.0 +500 points (11.46% -138bp) and 2042s +275 at 37.00 (10.20% -64bp)!!!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Preciously few things… Dragging into Year
End, unless next Friday proves the Mayan right.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Big Friday US data dump.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Thu Cons Confidence. No data next week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Thu PPI fcst -0.2% after flat MoM; Fr
Consumer Conf fcst 5.9 unch. No data next week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Fri BIZ Confidence fcst 89 after 88.
Thu 27 Dec Cons Conf , PPI, Claims, Q3 GDP revision</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Thu Retail Sales fcst flat after
+0.1% MoM sa; Fri Consumer Conf fcst 85.1 after 84.8; Thu 27 Dec Biz
Confidence, Fri 28 PPI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Thu Housing Permits prior -51.3%
YoY, Fri PPI -0.2% after -0.1% MoM; Thu 27 Dec Mortgages; Fri 28 Retail Sales</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Thu Existing Homes Sales fcst 4.90m
after 4.79m; Claims and yet another Q3 GDP revision; Big Friday with Chicago
FED, Pers Income & Spending fcst +0.3% after 0% and +0.4% after -0.2%,
Durable Goods fcst +0.3% after rev. +0.5%/ EX -0..2% after rev. +1.8%, Michigan
Conf fcst 75 after 74.5; Wed 26 Dec Case Shiller; Thu 27 Claims, Cons Conf, New
Homes Sales; Fri 28 Pending Home Sales</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Definitively
the right time to dig and unearth some more Xmas rock songs…</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/De47fjH6RKY" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Of course, I know you're longing for <a href="http://youtu.be/25pS3bx4S8A" target="_blank"><b>THAT </b></a>alternative.
</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-65561660774443308752012-12-18T18:02:00.002+01:002012-12-18T18:03:43.212+01:0018 Dec 2012 – “ I Saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus ” (John Mellencamp, 1987)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">18 Dec 2012 – “ I Saw
Mommy Kissing Santa Claus ” (John </span></b><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Me</span></b></span><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">llencamp, 1987)</span></b></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/zsat4e8jgHA" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Utterly boring <strike>Friday Monday </strike>Tuesday
session, worsened by year end inactivity… Good close. Fiscal Cliff haggling on-going with a
positive spin this time and Risk riding high.Spain catching up and paring
yesterday’s soft patch, as is Italy. ESToxx at the highest since Aug 2011. Credit very squeezed. EUR strong. Merry Mood!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"I Saw Mommy Kissing Santa Claus
" (Bunds 1,42% +5; Spain 5,29% -12; Stoxx 2647 +0,7%; EUR 1,322 +50)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Monday close in the US eventually
back in the green with the S&P up a healthy 1%, as Fiscal Cliff views
convergence was on the plate, the sole discerning market factor to end the
year. Still needs to be bridged, for good, though. Even Apple made a U-turn,
closing up 1.8%, having traded a new recent low at $501, before rebounding over
3.5%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Asia a mixed bag with Japan still pushing
on after the election outcome, most other markets up 0.5%, following the US,
but with China taking a breather, closing by and large flat, although down over
1% from the session high, as the new government in charge might keep on curbing
property and try to balance out a (by standard of the last decade) modest
growth target of 7.5%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Once more nothing on the fundamental macro
front for the day with US figures restricted to the NAHB Housing Index.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Another round of light <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Risk On</i> to start the session, akin to the last couple of days.
Equities up 0.5%, Bunds wider by 1, Periphery tighter by 3… Credit 1-3 ticks
tighter. Déjà vu… UST the weakest link out there with 10 YRS at 1.77 (+4).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,38% (+1), OBLs 0,36% (unch) and
BKOs -0,010% (unch). UST at 1,77% (+4) .</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 10s at 5,38% (-3) / B+400 and 10s
at 4,53% (-3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR around where left last night at 1.316
and Commodities about a quarter firmer.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">And there you go: Stuck again in
directionless and listless pre-holidays / year-end market.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish bad loans still rising relentlessly
with October numbers a new record at 11.2%, nearly EUR 190bn, after 10.7% in
September and company bad loans for Q3 hitting 16.6%. Not that this would dent
the market mood with everyone happy about the Spanish bills sales doing good on
the EUR 3.5bn target, with 3m and 6m bills sold at 1.195% and 1.609% (last
1.25% and 1.67%), so once more everything doing better.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greece</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
sold EUR 1.3bn (including non-comps) 3m bills at 4.11% (last 4.20%). </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">And that’s it for the week…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Unless postponed or cancelled, we’ll just
have another round next week with Italian bills on Wednesday and bonds on
Thursday. That would close 2012.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues market dormant.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Midday levels flashing equities still up a
small 0.5%, despite a weak patch in the CAC, but with Credit pushing ever
tighter with the Main at 112 (2 / -1.8%) and Financials at 144 (-3 / -2%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
through this year’s low at 112
in March and back to July 2011 levels (which was a
through following the spiking out started in summer 2011). Difficult to see
where to go from here, but next barrier is the 95-110 area. Financials have
taken out the mid-Oct 2012 lows yesterday and have slipped to May 2011 levels.
Similar to the main, we had an intermediate through around 120 in April 2011 with the
low 140s acting as top several times before. 120-140 area the one to fight for
now.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs by and large static with the Periphery
pushing tighter.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,38% (+1), OBLs 0,36% (unch) and
BKOs -0,010% (unch). UST 1,77% (+4).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s 2,82% (-4), 10s 5,34% (-7). 2-10
YRS spread 252bp (-3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s 1,79% (-5), 10s 4,48% (-8). 2-10
YRS spread 269bp (-3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR on 1.318 with Commodities flattish.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds up 25 with 2023s at 45.25 (12.77%
- bp) and 2042s at 34.50 (10.78% -12bp).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">In a word: Boring, although the Credit and
EUR performances look good.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">On the Periphery, keep in mind that this is
the last day for standard settlement on Friday and only few will probably enjoy
a game of “chase your bonds / failed deliveries in-between years”, knowing that most of Europe will
be shut next week but for Thursday 27 Dec and a little as possible Friday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">French government ministers are obviously
still competing and head to head for the biggest economic absurdities, be it on
fiscal-exiled actors, Indian steel magnates or “temporary nationalization” as
“a tool for France”, a solution gaining popularity. You bet.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No US figures to kick-off the
afternoon. US futures still about 1% better than Europe
since Friday with UST softer by 8 versus 4 for Bunds. Spread at 39 at the
widest since the 46 peak early April.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US equity cash open very close to home, in line
with Europe, but for a stronger NASDAQ and Apple past $525 again, followed by a
NAHB Housing Index on consensus of 47 (after 46 in Nov), the highest since
the 13 though in June last year and in Aug & Sep 2010.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing, in absence of trouble, in some
good Risk On and Merry Mood.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities up a good 0.75%, trailing the US,
closing pretty much a on the new high of 2647 and back to Aug 2011 levels.
Elves exist! <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Ho ho ho!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Very strong Credit close (see above).
Financials squeezed through the roof (-5%) and Crossover through 450.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Very strong Periphery close (see above).
Spain back well through the 400 to Bunds and Italy nearing 300 to Bunds. Wouldn’t
be surprised to see the 5% tested in year-end squeeze, if no shoe drops before,
but need to tackle the 5.15%-5.25% for good before.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds and the Hard Core pummelled, as the
USTs (+8).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,42% (+5), OBLs at 0,39%
(+3) and BKOs -0,003% (+0,8). UST at 1,81% (+8) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,83% (-3), 10s at 5,29%
(-12). 2-10 YRS spread 247bp (-8).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,72% (-12), 10s at 4,45%
(-11). 2-10 YRS spread 273bp (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR still on an up-wave. Ride On! Commodities
lacklustre in comparison with Gold down over 0.5%, pushing away from the
1700-mark.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: </span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Utterly boring <strike>Friday Monday </strike>Tuesday
session, worsened by year end inactivity… Good close. Fiscal Cliff haggling on-going with a
positive spin this time and Risk riding high.Spain catching up and paring
yesterday’s soft patch, as is Italy. ESToxx at the highest since Aug 2011. Credit very squeezed. EUR strong. Merry Mood!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Same. Sideways upwards, subject to
Fiscal Cliff discussions.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>German IFO
Business Climate data tomorrow (fcst 102 after 101.4) and US Construction
numbers with Housing Starts fcst 871k after 894k and Building Permits 87k after
rev. 868k.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Just the saaaaaaaaaaaame – until Santa comes.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">USD 35bn 5 YRS tonight and USD 29bn 7 YRS
on Thursday on the supply side.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Europe done for the week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2532/2503, DAX 7316/7219, CAC 3489/3469, MIB 15601/15423, IBEX 7829/7689.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13114/13180/13005, S&P 1415/1416/1388, NASDAQ 2992/3029/2989 with AAPL at
583/618/601.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.294, 100d 1.280 & 200d 1.278.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 to Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273 & <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1.315</b>, then 1.349 (50%).</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,42% (+5);
Luxembourg 1,45% (+3); Netherlands 1,63% (+5); Finland 1,64% (+4); EU 1,63%
(+2); Swaps 1,64% (+2), Austria 1,81% (+5); EIB 1,80% (+3); EFSF 1,89% (+1);
France 2,04% (+3); Belgium 2,17% (+3); Italy 4,45% (-11); Spain 5,29% (-12).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 3bp (-2);
Netherlands 21bp (unch); Finland 22bp (-1); EU 21bp (-3); Swaps 22bp (-3);
Austria 39bp (unch); EIB 38bp (-2); EFSF 47bp (-4); France 62bp (-2); Belgium
75bp (-2); Italy 303bp (-16); Spain 387bp (-17).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 45bp (+1,0); 5-10
YRS 82bp (+1,0) 10-30 YRS 67bp (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,003% (+0,8) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,39% (+3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main -3 to 111 (-2,6% tighter); Financials
-8 to 139 (-5,4% tighter); Cross -17 to 445 (-3,7% tighter).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2647 / +0,7% (from 2628)
with S&P minis at 1437 (+1,3% from 1419, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 15,5 after 16,9 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 88,0/108,8 (WTI/Brent) from 87,5/108,1
(+0,6%/+0,6%). Gold at 1685 after 1696 (-0,6%). Copper at 365 from 365 (+0,0%).
CRB at EU COB 296,0 from 295,0 (+0,3%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0cm; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Wack
the Balt! Baltic Dry purge on-going and confirming a fourth week of
consolidation, down 3% to 743.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The latest dip from the post-Summer high of
1109 in
Oct had been halted at 916, before that we slipped from 1162 in July to 661
mid-September. 21<sup>st</sup> century low was 647 in Feb 2012. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Upcoming Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)…
Seems a little far, no?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,322 from 1,317</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds up 25 with 2023s at 45.25 (12.77%
- bp) and 2042s at 34.50 (10.78% -12bp).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Preciously few things…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Dragging into Year End, unless Friday
proves the Mayan right.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US housing back into focus this week. Big
Friday US data dump.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Wed Construction; Thu Cons Confidence</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Wed IFO Biz Climate fcst 102 after
101.4, Current 108 after 108.1 and Expectations at 96.4 after 95.2; Thu PPI
fcst -0.2% after flat MoM; Fr Consumer Conf fcst 5.9 unch</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Fri BIZ Confidence fcst 89 after 88</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Wed Industrial Orders fcst +1% after
-4% MoM sa and Sales; Thu Retail Sales fcst flat after +0.1% MoM sa; Fri
Consumer Conf fcst 85.1 after 84.8</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Thu Housing Permits prior -51.3%
YoY, Fri PPI -0.2% after -0.1% MoM</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Wed Housing Starts fcst 873k after
894k, Permits fcst 870k after 868k; Thu Existing Homes Sales fcst 4.85m after
4.79m; Claims and yet another Q3 GDP revision; Big Friday with Chicago FED,
Pers Income & Spending, Durable Goods;, Michigan Conf.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Definitively
the right time to dig and unearth Xmas rock songs…As cheesy as some may be…</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/zsat4e8jgHA" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-75229367031488068342012-12-17T17:52:00.000+01:002012-12-17T17:54:11.137+01:0017 Dec 2012 – “Jingle Bell Rock ” (Billy Idol, 2006)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">17 Dec 2012 – “Jingle
Bell Rock ” (Billy Idol, 2006)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/NB2xA9b026k" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Utterly boring <strike>Friday </strike>Monday session,
worsened by year-end inactivity… Won’t get any better going forward, probably.
Fiscal Cliff a cliff-hanger (I know, cheap)… Spain on the heavier side with
contingent funding holes still popping up here and there.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"Jingle Bell Rock" (Bunds 1,37%
+2; Spain 5,41% +4; Stoxx 2628 unch; EUR 1,317 +30)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Friday saw again a slightly negative close
in the US,
as Fiscal Cliff issues remained on the calendar and Apple re-tested recent lows to
close pretty much on them.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Needless to say how </span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">saddening </span></span>that Newtown disaster is, given the kids’ age and the pre-holiday timing. Still, all our
thoughts are with them. And the US
should grow up to reality and realize that the constitutional right to fire a
musket, which takes 5 minutes to reload, is not applicable nowadays anymore.
Wake up!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Japanese landslide elections giving the
LDP-led coalition a two-third majority should at least enable the government to
be taken by its promises of 3% growth and 2% inflation; although a simple crawl
out of recession in the coming months might just be more realistic at this
stage.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Monday Asian session mostly red, though,
with the exception of Japan up a short 1% and China half a percent. US futures up
a quarter on Boehner hints of higher taxes (,but again against spending cuts).
At least, talks drag on.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No major European data releases for the day
(nor US
ones, really) and nothing to start with at all. Merkel in the FT on how to go
forward for Europe. The subject of German demographics,
which is certainly one of the drivers of the actual German stance, as its
future productivity will certainly be impacted by this fundamental issue, is a key one to understand German worries about social costs.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">So shoot for light Risk On start into the
week with Bunds 1 and UST 2 softer at 1.36% and 1.72%, likewise for OBLs. Other
EGBs as well 1bp softer with the Periphery 3 tighter for Italy at 4.57% and 1 tighter for Spain at 5.36%,
but symbolically back to 400 to Bunds.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities up a couple of ticks, just so
slightly in positive territory.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Commodities mixed (WTI slightly up, Brent
down, Gold slipping to 1689, Copper slightly up) with the EUR now past the
1.315 mark at 1.316, having trade out to 1.319 in
Asia.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Sit back, relax.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EZ Oct trade surplus down to EUR 7.9bn sa
(EUR 10.2bn sa) from rev. EUR 11bn sa with exports down 1.4% for a second month
(after -1.3% in Sep) and imports up 0.6%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">French weekly bill sales with EUR 3.4bn 3m
at -0.015%, 1.2bn 6m at -0.006% and EUR 1.7bn 12m at +0.005% (after -0.026%,
-0.015% and -0.012%). Will have EUR 3.5bn Spanish 3 and 6m tomorrow (last 1.25%
and 1.67%) next to EUR 1bn Greek 3m (last 4.20%) and that’s it for the week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Unless postponed or cancelled, we’ll just
have another round next week with Italian bills on Wednesday and bonds on
Thursday. That would close 2012.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues yet again on hold and probably
so until January.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities drifting lower by late morning
with Apple getting pushed below $500 in European trading seen as one reason.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Midday levels flashing equities down 0.2%,
although Credit tighter by 1% and especially Financials tighter by 2%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,37% (+2), OBLs at 0,35%
(+2) and BKOs -0,030% (+1,3). UST at 1,72% (+2) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs pretty static at morning levels,
although now split in the Periphery with Italy
4 tighter in 10s and Spain
as much wider. Southern 2 YRS close to closing levels, though.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s 2,84% (+1), 10s 5,41% (+4). 2-10
YRS spread 257bp (+3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s 1,85% (-2), 10s 4,56% (-4). 2-10
YRS spread 271bp (-2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR on 1.315 with Commodities a little
softer than in the morning, but close to home, too.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds unchanged with 2023s at 45.0
(12.84%) and 2042s at 34.0 (10.90%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">In a word: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Yawn!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Sole US figure to kick off the afternoon
with Empire Manufacturing a HUGE miss at -8.1 (fcst -1 after -5.22), in total
contradiction to last week’s PMI rebound to 54.2 (fcst 51.8 after 52.4). New
Orders and shipments dropping.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Eventually Apple did not tank at US cash
open and everyone was happy again with US indices opening up a healthy +0.4%,
but with no follow-up on the European side outside moving to unchanged.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Had Apple hit the bottom of the cart at 501
at the time of writing, before rebounding a little…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2012/html/sp121217.en.html" target="_blank">Draghi before the EU Parliament</a>, but with nothing crisp. Pushing for fiscal union.
SMP profits go to the NCBs, which then are free to do whatever they like with
those… (…<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">including sending them back to
Greece…).</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">And that’s it, folks… Will probably not get
more exciting in the coming days.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities closing unchanged to the tick, US
ones firmer. Credit firmer (1.7% for the Main, over 3% in Financials). EGBs
wobbly, swaps stable and agency paper (swap-driven) about unchanged, too.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain on the heavier side, but with no more
obvious reason than having been the best performing (non-bailed-out) EGBs last
week, while it keeps uncovering contingent funding holes (toll-roads, now, next
to the electricity tariff deficits)…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,37% (+2), OBLs at 0,36%
(+3) and BKOs -0,010% (+3,3). UST at 1,73% (+3) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,86% (+3), 10s at 5,41%
(+4). 2-10 YRS spread 255bp (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,84% (-3), 10s at 4,56%
(-4). 2-10 YRS spread 272bp (-1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek 2023s unchanged at 45.0 (12.84%) and
2042s +25 at 34.25 (10.84% -6bp).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Portuguese 10s unchanged, right at 7%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR still riding high(er). Commodities
mixed. Oil split (+/-1%). Gold static.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Utterly boring <s>Friday</s> Monday
session, worsened by year end inactivity… Won’t get any better going forward,
probably. Fiscal Cliff a cliff-hanger (I know, cheap)… Spain on the heavier
side with contingent funding holes still popping up here and there.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Same. Sideways upwards, subject to
Fiscal Cliff discussions. Looks pretty stuck. Not much data until Wednesday’s
IFO and US Construction numbers… Just the saaaaaaaaaaaame – until Santa comes.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">USD 35bn 2 YRS UST tonight, USD 35bn 5 YRS
tomorrow and USD 29bn 7 YRS on Thursday on the supply side. Europe done by
tomorrow’s bills sales.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2529/2500, DAX 7310/7210, CAC 3484/3466, MIB 15592/15399, IBEX 7826/7677.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13119/13174/13004, S&P 1415/1415/1387, NASDAQ 2994/3028/2989 with AAPL at
586/619/601.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.293, 100d 1.279 & 200d 1.278.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 to Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273& <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">1.315</b>, then 1.349 (50%).</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,37% (+2);
Luxembourg 1,42% (unch); Netherlands 1,58% (+3); Finland 1,60% (+3); EU 1,61%
(unch); Swaps 1,62% (unch), Austria 1,76% (+3); EIB 1,77% (unch); EFSF 1,88%
(+1); France 2,01% (+3); Belgium 2,14% (+3); Italy 4,56% (-4); Spain 5,41%
(+4).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 5bp (-2);
Netherlands 21bp (+1); Finland 23bp (+1); EU 24bp (-2); Swaps 25bp (-2);
Austria 39bp (+1); EIB 40bp (-2); EFSF 51bp (-1); France 64bp (+1); Belgium
77bp (+1); Italy 319bp (-6); Spain 404bp (+2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 44bp (-1,0); 5-10
YRS 81bp (-1,0) 10-30 YRS 67bp (+1,0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,010% (+3,3) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,36% (+3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main -2 to 114 (-1,7% tighter); Financials
-5 to 147 (-3,3% tighter); Cross -1 to 462 Stoxx Futures at 2628 / unchanged to
the tick (from 2628) with S&P minis at 1419 (+0,6% from 1411, at European
close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 16,9 after 16,7 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 87,5/108,1 (WTI/Brent) from 86,6/109,1
(+1,0%/-0,9%). Gold at 1696 after 1696 (unchanged). Copper at 365 from 366
(-0,3%). CRB at EU COB 295,0 from 293,0 (+0,7%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Baltic
Dry purge on-going and starting a fourth week of consolidation, down 2.3% again,
at 766 after 784.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The latest dip from the post-Summer high of
1109
in Oct had been halted at 916,
before that we slipped from 1162 in
July to 661 mid-September. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Upcoming
Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)…</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,317 from 1,314</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek 2023s unchanged at 45.0 (12.84%) and
2042s +25 at 34.25 (10.84% -6bp).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Preciously few things…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Dragging into Year End, unless next Friday
proves the Mayan right.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US housing back into focus next week. Big
Friday US data dump.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Empty government supply after Spanish and
Greek bills tomorrow.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Wed 19 Construction; Thu 20 Cons
Confidence</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Wed 19 IFO fcst 102.3 after 101.4; Thu
20 PPI; Fr 21 Cons Confidence</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Fri 21 BIZ Confidence</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">:
Wed 19 Industrial Orders and Sales; Thu 20 Retail Sales; Fri 21 Consumer Conf</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">:
Thu 20 Housing Permits, Fri 21 PPI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Tue 18 NAHB Housing; Wed 19 Housing
Starts fcst 873k after 894k, Permits fcst 870k after 868k; Thu 20 Existing
Homes Sales fcst 4.85m after 4.79m;Claims and yet another Q3 GDP revision; Big
Friday with Chicago FED, Pers Income & Spending, Durable Goods;, Michigan
Conf.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Definitively
the right time to dig and unearth Xmas rock songs… As cheesy as some may be…</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/NB2xA9b026k" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-48990353511567228452012-12-16T14:38:00.000+01:002012-12-16T14:42:10.545+01:00Shuffle Rewind 10-14 Dec " Lazy Sunday Afternoon " (Small Faces, 1968)<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: red; line-height: 115%;">Shuffle Rewind 10-14 Dec
" Lazy Sunday Afternoon " (Small Faces, 1968)</span></b></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/zXeRB-3nDR8" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">MusicLink</span></b></a><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">This week in review (compared to Fri 07
Dec COB):</span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Click
on <b>day</b> for related post, on <b>title</b> for song.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">As we ended November, we started December
<a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/12/shuffle-rewind-03-07-dec-only-when-i.html" target="_blank"><b>last week</b></a>. Quietly. If it hadn’t been for some EUR volatility, a rather botched
Spanish auction, Apple getting peeled and <i>Bunga
Bunga</i> politics that shook Italy,
we would probably have trailed mostly sideways, trying to sleepwalk into the
year-end. And still, if you wanted to sleep tight, you needed to remain both
long Risk AND long bonds.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/2CjLQ-_DQPA" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">"Only When I Sleep" (Bunds1,30% -8; Spain 5,51% +21; Stoxx 2599 +0,7%; EUR 1,293 -80</span></b></a><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">)</span></b><span style="line-height: 115%;">. That week ended on</span><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></b><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/12/06-dec-2012-bruttosozialprodukt-geier.html" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Friday</span></b></a><span style="line-height: 115%;">
07 Dec with musings about the need to find other ways to kill time until Year
End. Morning highs, lunch time lows and then trailing the US felt
unfulfilling. EGBs remained on the stronger side with augurs seeing a weakening
Germany
and calls for lower rates putting the EUR under pressure. Ok, Germans: “Now
work! Somebody has to pay the bills!” seemed to be the right call to increase </span><a href="http://youtu.be/GJXBUnoJT4Y" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">"Bruttosozialprodukt"</span></b></a><span style="line-height: 115%;">
(Bunds 1,3% +1; Spain 5,45% -1; Stoxx 2597 -0,3%; EUR 1,295 -20). NFP were
strong, hitting USTs, but not enough to persuade US equities to do more than
trade sideways.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/12/10-dec-2012-uhuh-bingo-bongo-adriano.html" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Monday 07 Dec</span></b></a><span style="line-height: 115%;">
revealed that the Italian crisis seemed to be a real one, as Monti threw in the
towel over the weekend. Still: Surprisingly stable Risk. BTPs were shot down in
style. So, Italy?
Down. Chinese data? Was partially weak. Japan? Confirmed in recession.
French data? Weak. German data? Strong. At least them… Wow! With that it would
be better to have Friday’s PMI numbers look really good (Which eventually
wasn’t really the case…). So once more, analysts were having to reinvent
themselves as political experts to glare into a smoky crystal ball… Italian
contagion remained contained, though. Uh…Uh…! <b>"</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/Bqgz3fDoKms" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Uh...Uh - Bingo Bongo</span></b></a><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"> " (Bunds 1,30% unch; Spain 5,54% +9;
Stoxx 2598 +0,0%; EUR 1,293 -20)</span></b><span style="line-height: 115%;">. </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/12/11-dec-2012-aint-that-good-news-sam.html" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Tuesday</span></b></a><span style="line-height: 115%;">
showed markets recovering quite nicely from the Italian shock. Add some better
outlook figures and we were all friends again. The Spanish bill auction was
less punishing than could have been feared. The US were opening stronger.
Everything else was all good again. Greek bonds went stellar<b>. "</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/Z2H4D7qKc7Q" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">(Ain't That) Good News</span></b></a><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">"
(Bunds 1,32% +2; Spain
5,45% -9; Stoxx 2623 +1,0%; EUR 1,299 +60)</span></b><span style="line-height: 115%;">. Wednesday was
simply boring and a good day to spend some quality time off the screens, while
markets were digesting Italy further</span> <span style="line-height: 115%;">(Bunds 1,34% +2; Spain
5,34% -11; Stoxx 2628 +0,2%; EUR 1,304 +50). The FED announced QE4, which
everybody had expected the day QE3 was announced anyway. So not that a kicker.
That extended into </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/12/13-dec-2012-when-its-sleepy-time-down.html" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Thursday</span></b></a><span style="line-height: 115%;"> with
the Periphery still recovering some more, although slightly less as auctions in
Italy and Spain weighted
a little. Equities and Risk oblivious to that anyway and synching with the US until the
European close. It is getting difficult to find something crisp out there with the
reduced news flow and volatility. Excitement solely stemming from the US on FC developments, as Greece, Spain
and Italy
are seemingly off the table and that the FED has moved to QE4.<span style="color: black;"> <b>"</b></span></span><a href="http://youtu.be/a2uUtMDdhyg" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">When It's Sleepy Time Down South</span></b></a><b><span style="color: black; line-height: 115%;">" (Bunds 1,35% +1; Spain 5,38% +4; Stoxx 2622 -0,2%;
EUR 1,308 +40)</span></b><span style="color: black; line-height: 115%;">. So eventually we closed yet
another <a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/12/14-dec-2012-stuck-in-middle-with-you.html" target="_blank"><b>Friday</b> </a>with an utterly boring
session, worsened by year end inactivity… PMI figures, which were actually
needed on the more positive side to justify the latest levels in Risk were just
so so in Europe. But, who cares? Periphery recovering further with Spain
actually the best performer on the week (outside the bailed-<span style="font-size: small;">o</span>ut gang). US stuck
despite better figures. <b>"<a href="http://youtu.be/OMAIsqvTh7g" target="_blank">Stuck in the Middle with You</a>"</b> (Bunds 1,35% +0; Spain 5,37% -1; Stoxx 2628
+0,2%; EUR 1,314 +60). US equities barely changed on the week. A shade red, to
be exact.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="color: black; line-height: 115%;">Bingo Bongo, Good News hailing,
Sleepily digesting in the South to end Stuck… What an uninspiring week… Felt
slow as a Sunday Afternoon– for 5 days in a row… The only thing that wasn’t lazy
and laid back was the EUR.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="color: black; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/zXeRB-3nDR8" target="_blank">"Lazy Sunday Afternoon" (Bunds1,35% +5; Spain 5,37% -8; Stoxx 2628 +1,2%; EUR 1,314 +190)</a></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">While
last week had been one where you needed to run Bunds (8 bp tighter to end at
1.30%), and especially Soft Core EGBs, all closing by and large on historic
lows, despite Credit tightening in by yet another 3.5% and equities squeezing
out yet another 0.7% in gains, this week saw that bid weakening gradually as
the Periphery recovered. Still, one could barely call this a “correction” with
5bp added to end at 1.35% (Mon unchanged, Tue +2, Wednesday +2, Thursday +1 and
Friday unchanged). And that is with Bunds being among the worst performers in
European bonds… So not much to report. End of year… We remain in the same old 1.13%
- 2.07% range, with retracements levels at 1.35%, 1.49% and 1.60% on the
upside.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">UST
wider by 8bp in an auction-laden week at 1.70%.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Schätze
gave back 4 bp after last week’s 9bp gain, deep into negative territory, and
ended at -0,043% (+4) with 5 YRS OBLs at 0,33% (+4).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">NB:
End of July closing lows for 2 YRS were -0.095%, 5 YRS 0.24% and 10 YRS further
away at 1.17%.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Not
much to say about the rest of the EGB curve. Most sovereigns sluggishly
tightened in just a little on Germany’s (limited) widening, especially during
the re-normalization at the end of the week. Soft Core subject to accordion
movements with the Periphery wagging them all, to a certain extent.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The
<i>Bunga</i> thing last week took some time
to digest, although last week’s sleepy environment had the whole thing watered
down (with Italy ending 4 wider and Spain 15 against Bunds tightening 8? BRING
10 YRS to 4.53% / 323 to Bunds, respectively 5.45% / 415 to Bunds). Monday was <i>bunga</i>-ed some more after Monti threw the
towel over the weekend with Italy widening sharply by 28, dragging Spain 9
wider as well, as players realized it wasn’t just a blimp on the Italian
political landscape. 2 YRS fared even worse, widening by 34 (and 12 for Spain).
But by Tuesday the view became more sanguine with hopes of Monti positioning himself
on some <span style="font-size: small;">sort of </span>centre / centrist platform and both Italian and Spanish curves
tightened back some 10bp, followed by some more normalization on Wednesday
(Italian 2s -14, back through 2%, and 10s -8 with Spanish 2s -14 and 10s -8),
as the Italian 1 YR bill sales went through smoothly. Thursday a bit wobbly on
auction-supply both in Italy as well as Spain (-1 in Italy, +4 in Spain) with
the end of the week showing a lenient -3 and -1.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Italy
ending the week at 4,60% (+7) / 325 (+2) to Bunds and Spain at 5,37% (-8) / 402
(-13) to Bunds, eventually the best performing bonds (outside the bailed-out
countries, which went ripping, led by Greece). Italian 2s at 1.87% (+3 on the
week) and Spanish one at 2.83% (-10).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">So,
things about digested.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">If
we felt that the Greek buy-back prices were generous, it didn’t keep the Greek
bonds from seriously overshooting them already before the (extended by 2 days) cut-off
date and even more thereafter.</span> <span style="line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds closing at their (initial)
highs on the closing of the buy-back with 2023s at 43.50 (13.28%) and 2042s at
34.0 (10.90) to then end the week for the 2023s at 45.0 (12.83%) and 2042s at
34.0 (10.90%), having closed last Friday at 40.75 (14.15%) and at 31.0
(11.71%). As a reminder, buy-back price proposals were 38.1-40.1 & 30.2-32.2.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The Greece buy-back went through for EUR
31.9bn and the ensuing rally is certainly good for the OSI end of year
mark-to-market. Details </span><a href="http://www.minfin.gr/content-api/f/binaryChannel/minfin/datastore/41/5c/2a/415c2a43a9257e5f78be6050ea760d013cdd5788/application/pdf/Press+Release_December_12.pdf"><span style="line-height: 115%;">here</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Swaps again totally in line with EGBs,
after closing last week at historic lows (up to 11 YRS). 2-10s <span style="font-size: small;">barely wider </span>at 127
(+1), with 2-5s at 45 (+1) and 5-10s unchanged at 82. 10-30 YRS, which steepening
was surprising us over the last weeks, finally flattened back to 66 from 70. As for the last weeks (+7 to 70 and before
that +2 to 63), I would expect X-longs to tighten in an increased low-inflation
cum <i>Risk On </i>scenario<i>.</i></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">2 YRS 0.345% (+3.5) 5 YRS 0.795% (+4.5) 10
YRS 1.620% (+4) 30 YRS 2.280% (unch).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">As last week, Credit indices still seem to
attempt taking out new lows for the year (Main 112 in March, ; Financials hitting 146 past the Oct 153 point; Cross low 462 mid
Sep, 468 today). Some light outperformance of equities, especially for the
Crossover.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Highs were respectively 208 & 184 in Nov
2011 and then May 2012 in the Main, 355 & 309 for Financials and 842 &
753 for the Crossover. So we’ve come some way here, too.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Main down to 116 (-2,5% tighter);
Financials at 152 after 153; Cross at 463 from 480 (-3,5% tighter).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">European
equities finally, tick by tick by tick by tick, managing to take out new 2012
highs (2638 on Thursday for the EStoxx), but mostly in limited volatility and
running a bit out of steam, paced as well by the US. Monday ended unchanged to
the tick, Tue saw eventually a 1% sprint, followed by additional +0.2% on Wed
and the slightest of correction on Thu with -0.2% and ending Friday +0.2%, nonetheless up +1.2% on the week.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">European
50 & 100d averages: EStoxx 2527/2497, DAX 7306/7201, CAC 3480/3462, MIB
15591/15372, IBEX 7824/7663.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">US
50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU 13126/13169/13003, S&P 1416/1415/1387,
NASDAQ 2997/3027/2989 with AAPL at 589/620/602.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The
only thing that wasn’t lazy this week, again. Last week was pogo time in
EUR/USD (+50 +20 -10 -100 -20) after having added 310 pips in the prior weeks
and been kicked in the chin by <i>Bunga
Square</i>. Eventually things mellowed out here, too, initially, but Risk, for
choice, is back in the European camp: Mon -20 Tue +60 Wed +50 Thu +40 Fri +60.
Flirting with that 1.315 just around Friday close.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Resistance
1.315-1.317 area.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EUR:
50d 1.291, 100d 1.270 & 200d 1.279.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Fibo
retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273&
1.315, then 1.349 (50%).Jul 2012 to Sep rebound levels: 1.231 – 1.247 – 1.261 –
1.274 – 1.291 -1.317 .</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Not
much to say about Commodities. Brent up 2% against WTI’s +0.5% and Gold weakish
and held below the 1700-mark (-0.3%).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Baltic
Dry crashed, though, showing some fundamental lack of transportation needs. To
be watched. The Chinese New Year starting only on 10 Feb 2013, that excuse
won’t make it.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Seriously
nearing the end of the year in New Issues with a week that only yielded
slightly over EUR 4bn in 7 deals (versus EUR 14bn last week and EUR 27bn during
the last November week), of which 3 EUR 1bn benchmarks (Carrefour, AT&T,
Telecom Italia), although one would note that the remaining deals were more on
the venturous side with non-IG Nexans, BoI’s Tier 2 deal or unrated forest-manager
Tornator.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Outlook:
</span></b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Same
on the menu, just the same: Broadly sideways, unless a shoe drops. If the sun
shines, test the upside. Fiscal Cliff uncertainty remains on the menu. Periphery
woes seemingly digested. Will once and for all drift into holidays catatonia.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">On the week (compared to Fri 07 Dec
COB):</span></b><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,35% (+5); Luxembourg
1,42% (+4); Netherlands 1,55% (+3); Finland 1,57% (+2); EU 1,61% (+3); Swaps
1,62% (+4); Austria 1,73% (+4); EIB 1,77% (+2); EFSF 1,87% (+1); France 1,98%
(+3); Belgium 2,11% (+2); Italy 4,60% (+7); Spain 5,37% (-8).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 7bp (-1);
Netherlands 20bp (-2); Finland 22bp (-3); EU 26bp (-2); Swaps 27bp (-1);
Austria 38bp (-1); EIB 42bp (-3); EFSF 52bp (-4); France 63bp (-2); Belgium
76bp (-3); Italy 325bp (+2); Spain 402bp (-13).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 45bp (+1,0); 5-10
YRS 82bp (+0,0) 10-30 YRS 66bp (-4,0).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">2
YRS German BKOs closed -0,043% (+4) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,33% (+4), on the week.
with UST at 1,70% (+8). Swiss 2 YRS back up to -0.240 from last week’s -0.295%,
in line with Schätze.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Main at 116 from 119 (-2,5% tighter);
Financials at 152 after 153 (-0,7% tighter); Cross at 463 from 480 (-3,5%
tighter).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2628 / +1,2% from 2597
with S&P minis at 1411 / -0,1% from 1413, at European COB last week.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 16,7 after 16,5 last week.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Oil 86,6/109,1 (WTI/Brent) from 86,2/107,0
(+0,5%/+2,0%). Gold at 1696 after 1701 (-0,3%). Copper at 366 from 365 (+0,3%)
. CRB closes 293,0 from 296,0 (-1,0%).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">A
real beating for the Baltic Dry after last week’s 11% slide. Things just got
worst by the day, peaking with an 8% plunge on Wednesday. BDIY sunk yet again on
Friday to end the week at 784, down nearly 19% this week and over 27% during
the last fortnight.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The
latest dip from the post-Summer high of 1109 in Oct had been halted at 916,
before that we slipped from 1162 in July to 661 mid-September. <i>Upcoming Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)…</i></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,314 after 1,295 last Friday</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">All levels Friday COB 17:30 CET</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Preciously
few things…</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Dragging
into Year End, unless next Friday proves the Mayan right.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">US
housing back into focus next week. Big Friday US data dump.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Pretty
empty government supply slate with Spanish and Greek bills on Tuesday</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EC:
Mon 17 Trade Balance; Wed 19 Construction; Thu 20 Cons Confidence</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">GE:
Wed 19 IFO fcst 102.3 after 101.4; Thu 20 PPI; Fr 21 Cons Confidence</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">FR:
Fri 21 BIZ Confidence</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Italy:
Wed 19 Industrial Orders and Sales; Thu 20 Retail Sales; Fri 21 Consumer Conf</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Spain:
Thu 20 Housing Permits, Fri 21 PPI</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">US:
Mon 17 Empire Manu fcst 0 after -5.22; Tue 18 NAHB Housing; Wed 19 Housing
Starts fcst 873k after 894k, Permits fcst 870k after 868k; Thu 20 Existing
Homes Sales fcst 4.85m after 4.79m;Claims and yet another Q3 GDP revision; Big
Friday with Chicago FED, Pers Income & Spending, Durable Goods;, Michigan
Conf.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Click link under title or below for
today’s musical support:</span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/zXeRB-3nDR8" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">MusicLink</span></b></a><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-1918194743573334912012-12-14T17:54:00.005+01:002012-12-15T00:31:08.794+01:0014 Dec 2012 – “ Stuck in the Middle with You ” (Stealers Wheel, 1972)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; line-height: 115%;">14 Dec 2012 – “ Stuck
in the Middle with You ” (Stealers Wheel, 1972)</span></b></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"></span></span>
<br />
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/OMAIsqvTh7g" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Utterly boring Friday session, worsened by
year end inactivity… PMI figures, which were actually needed on the more positive
side to justify the latest levels in Risk were just so so in Europe. But, who
cares? Periphery recovering further with Spain actually the best performer on
the week (outside the bailed-<span style="font-size: small;">o</span>ut gang). US stuck despite better figures.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">"Stuck in the Middle with You"
(Bunds 1,35% unch; Spain 5,37% -1; Stoxx 2628 +0,2%; EUR 1,314 +60)</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Fiscal Cliff. What would we do if there
wasn’t that Fiscal Cliff? Well, in any case, it was the subject of the day
yesterday and sent US equities gradually, and without too much panic, to a
-0.5/0.75% close (with Apple down 1.75%, after initially dropping hard, towards
last month’s 506 low – which it did miss, having not yet upgraded back to
Google Maps…).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The 30 YRS auction came rather on the cheaper
side at a 2.917% high, 3bp over target, and up 10bp from last month, with an
unexciting 2.5 bid-to-cover; direct bidders, though, represented 20.3%, which
is the highest of 2012 with exception of June (24%).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Asia closing mixed with
most markets flattish, Korea down 1%, but China shooting up over 4% with the
HSBC PMI printing slightly over expectations at 50.9 (fcst 50.8 after the 50.5
November print ending over a year of contraction). Shanghai closed over 10% over its 1952 low
just 10 days ago. Cool recovery. Then again 4% for a tick over consensus might be a little over the top...</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">New car sales in the EU down 10.3% in Nov
(When will be the next bail-out of a car maker?)<span style="font-size: small;">.</span></span></span></span><br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">PMI onslaught: Lukewarm for France with
Services at 46 after 45.8, as expected, but Manufacturing missing 44.9
estimates to rise timidly a tick to 44.6 from 44.5. German picture oddly
similar, but more worrying with a hard miss and drop in Manufacturing at 46.3
(fcst 47.3 after 46.8), but with Services doing remarkably better, with a
50-plus read of 52.1 (fcst 50 after 49.7). EZ flash estimate hence coming up with
an improved Composite at 47.3 (fcst 46.9 after 46.5), but with Manufacturing
just up 1 tick to 46.3 after 46.2 (fcst 46.6) and Services above consensus at
47.8 after 46.7 (fcst 47.0).</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Spanish housing still sinking with 3Q
prices down 3.8% (from prior -3.3%), 15.2% YoY (from 14.4%). Good that the
SAREB is running these stocks now…</span></span></span> </div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Italian government debt for Oct now showing
a historic EUR 2.014bn (EUR 2 trillion plus) figure (from EUR 1.995bn).</span></span></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
Finally EZ CPI as expected at -0.2% from
+0.2% MoM, 2.2% unchanged YoY, although Core CPI is a tick better at 1.4% (fcst
1.5% unchanged).</div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span><br />
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Light Risk On start with equities up a good
quarter across the indices. Credit flat to a tick tighter. EGBs flattish with
the Hard Core 1bp softer and the Periphery 2-3 tighter to start the day with
unchanged curves. Bunds 1.36%. UST still on the soft side at 1.73%. Commodities
flat with Gold just under 1700. Copper up 0.8%, probably on China boost
hopes. EUR above the 1.31 handle with 1.315, as chart point in sight, should <i>ROn</i> be confirmed.</span></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">New Issues yielded a single deal by Telecom
Italia with EUR 1bn at MS +295 (about 15 over Italy) for a Jan 2020 benchmark,
closing a week that only yielded slightly over EUR 4bn in 7 deals, of which 3
EUR 1bn benchmarks (Carrefour, AT&T), although one would note that the
remaining deals were more on the venturous side with non-IG Nexans, BoI’s Tier
2 deal or unrated forest-manager Tornator.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Drifting sideways and totally uninspired
into lunchtime… </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Not much out there. Equities slightly
better bid at +0.3%. Credit unchanged. Periphery recovering further and, for
choice, supporting the Soft Core.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Commodities about unchanged. EUR snaking
around the 31-handle, at just below ahead of the US figures.</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,36% (+1), OBLs at 0,33% (+2), BKOs
-0,043% (+1,8). UST at 1,73% (+1).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s 2,82% (-5), 10s 5,36% (-2). 2-10
YRS spread 253bp (+1).</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s 1,88% (-4), 10s 4,58% (-5). 2-10
YRS spread 270bp (-2).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds finally not moving anymore at
unchanged to close.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Some US figures to kick-off the afternoon
with CPI a tick under expectations down 0.3% (fcst -0.2% from +0.1%) MoM, same
for ex, 1.8% YoY (fcst 1.9% after 2.2%) and ex 1.9% (fcst 2% unchanged). Rest
of data all good, but overshadowed by FC, as PMI came out at 54.2 (fcst was
slight decrease to 51.8 from 52.4), while Industrial Production in Nov rose
1.1% (fcst 0.3% after -0.4% rev. -0.7%). Capacity Utilization stood at 78.4%
(fcst 78% after 77.7%).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">US cash open nevertheless close to flat –
in expectation of something to happen. Apple doing a Newton towards its 506
level at open (and missing it)(You know, that map thing...)</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">USTs coming back in and tightening by 2bp
to 1.70%.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Waiting.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Stuck. Seriously.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EUR trying to take on the 1.315 level with
US equities sliding. Incidentally, US equities are trading pretty much where
they stood exactly one week ago at Friday’s European close.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i><span style="line-height: 115%;">Pfff</span></i><span style="line-height: 115%;">…
And a happy weekend! Not much to add.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,35% (unch), OBLs at 0,33%
(+1) and BKOs -0,043% (+1,8). UST at 1,70% (-2) COB.</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,83% (-4), 10s at 5,37% (-1).
2-10 YRS spread 254bp (+2).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,87% (-5), 10s at 4,60%
(-3). 2-10 YRS spread 273bp (+1).</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Greek 2023s unchanged at 45.0 (12.83%) and
2042s at 34.0 (10.90%). Seeing Portuguese 10s closing right a 7%.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EUR inspired, but not Commodities with Gold
stuck below 1700.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Utterly boring Friday session,
worsened by year end inactivity… PMI figures, which were actually needed on the
more positive side to justify the latest levels in Risk were just so so in
Europe. But, who cares? Periphery recovering further with Spain actually the
best performer on the week (outside the bailed-<span style="font-size: small;">o</span>ut gang). US stuck despite
better figures.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Same. Sideways upwards, subject to
Fiscal Cliff discussions. Looks pretty stuck. Not much data until Wednesday’s
IFO and US Construction numbers.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2527/2497, DAX 7306/7201, CAC 3480/3462, MIB 15591/15372, IBEX 7824/7663.</span></span></span> </div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13126/13169/13003, S&P 1416/1415/1387, NASDAQ 2997/3027/2989 with AAPL at
589/620/602.</span></span></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
EUR: 50d 1.293, 100d 1.278 & 200d 1.278.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 to Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273 &
1.315, then 1.349 (50%).<br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Don’t miss the <b>Shuffle Rewind</b> over the weekend.</span></span><span style="font-size: small;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></span></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,35% (unch);
Luxembourg 1,42% (unch); Netherlands 1,55% (unch); Finland 1,57% (unch); EU
1,61% (unch); Swaps 1,62% (+1), Austria 1,73% (-1); EIB 1,77% (-1); EFSF 1,87%
(-2); France 1,98% (unch); Belgium 2,11% (-1); Italy 4,60% (-3); Spain 5,37%
(-1).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 7bp (unch );
Netherlands 20bp (unch); Finland 22bp (unch); EU 26bp (unch); Swaps 27bp (+1);
Austria 38bp (-1); EIB 42bp (-1); EFSF 52bp (-2); France 63bp (unch); Belgium
76bp (-1); Italy 325bp (-3); Spain 402bp (-1).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 45bp (unch); 5-10
YRS 82bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 66bp (unch).</span></span></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,043% (+1,8) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,33% (+1).</div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Main +1 to 116 (0,9% wider); Financials +1
to 152 (0,7% wider); Cross -1 to 463 (-0,2% tighter).</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2628 / +0,2% (from 2622)
with S&P minis at 1411 (-0,6% from 1419, at European close)<span style="font-size: small;">.</span></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: small;"> </span>VIX index at 16,7 after 16,1 yesterday same
time.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Oil 86,6/109,1 (WTI/Brent) from 86,7/108,9
(-0,2%/+0,2%). Gold at 1696 after 1697 (-0,1%). Copper at 366 from 365 (+0,3%).
CRB at EU COB 293,0 from 295,0 (-0,7%).</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Baltic
Dry down 1.9% again, deep-diving to 784 from 799, down nearly 19% on the week and
over 27% during the last fortnight.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The latest dip from the post-Summer high of
1109 in Oct had been halted at 916, before that we slipped from 1162 in July to
661 mid-September.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><i>Upcoming Chinese New
Year (10 Feb 2013)…</i></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,314 from 1,308</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Greek 2023s unchanged at 45.0 (12.83%) and
2042s at 34.0 (10.90%).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Preciously few things…</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Dragging into Year End, unless next Friday
proves the Mayan right.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">US housing back into focus next week. Big
Friday US data dump.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Pretty empty government supply slate with
Spanish and Greek bills on Tuesday</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EC: Mon 17 Trade Balance; Wed 19
Construction; Thu 20 Cons Confidence</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">GE: Wed 19 IFO fcst 102.3 after 101.4; Thu
20 PPI; Fr 21 Cons Confidenc<span style="font-size: small;">e</span> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">FR: Fri 21 BIZ Confidence</span></span></span><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Italy: Wed 19 Industrial Orders and Sales;
Thu 20 Retail Sales; Fri 21 Consumer Conf</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Spain: Thu 20 Housing Permits, Fri 21 PPI</span></span></span> </div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
US: Mon 17 Empire Manu fcst 0 after -5.22;
Tue 18 NAHB Housing; Wed 19 Housing Starts fcst 873k after 894k, Permits fcst
870k after 868k; Thu 20 Existing Homes Sales fcst 4.85m after 4.79m;Claims and
yet another Q3 GDP revision; Big Friday with Chicago FED, Pers Income &
Spending, Durable Goods;, Michigan Conf.</div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span> <span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"></span></i></span><br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Clowns
to the left of me</span></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Jokers
to the right</span></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-size: small;">H</span>ere I am</span></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Stuck
in the middle with you.</span></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<br />
<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/OMAIsqvTh7g" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-size: small;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-16645532289629663542012-12-13T17:48:00.001+01:002012-12-13T17:50:01.016+01:0013 Dec 2012 – “ When It's Sleepy Time Down South ” (Louis Armstrong, 1931)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">13 Dec 2012 – “ When
It's Sleepy Time Down South ” (Louis Armstrong, 1931)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/a2uUtMDdhyg" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Markets getting back to some normality with
the Periphery still recovering, although less today after the auctions, Bunds 5
wider on the week, Italy 10, but Spain 7 tighter across the curve from last
Friday. Equities and Risk oblivious to that anyway and synching with the US.
Getting difficult to find something crisp out there with reduced news flow and
volatility. Excitement to be found in the US on FC developments, now that
Greece, Spain and Italy are seemingly off the table and that the FED has moved
to QE4.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"When It's Sleepy Time Down
South" (Bunds 1,35% +1; Spain 5,38% +4; Stoxx 2622 -0,2%; EUR 1,308 +40)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Well, it seems like having been a good day
to stay away from the screens yesterday, with not much going outside the
on-going re-normalization of the Italian Job with Italian 2s 14bp tighter and
back through the 2%-mark and Spain closing 11bp tighter right on the 400 to
Bunds mark, while waiting for FED news. All is good.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Yet another new 2012 high traded in EStoxx
at 2633 on the 12.12.12, which sounds funky. EUR past 1.30 on general lenient
risk attitude.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The Greece buy-back went through for
EUR 31.9bn and leading to further rallying secondaries (good for the OSI end of
year mark-to-market…). Details </span><a href="http://www.minfin.gr/content-api/f/binaryChannel/minfin/datastore/41/5c/2a/415c2a43a9257e5f78be6050ea760d013cdd5788/application/pdf/Press+Release_December_12.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">here</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">OFF</i>"
(Bunds 1,34% +2; Spain
5,34% -11; Stoxx 2628 +0,2%; EUR 1,304 +50)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Big Ben unveiled QE4, which had US equities
shoot up 0.6% from unchanged, re-think about it 0.8% lower to finally close
unchanged. Eh… No. The FED won’t be able to contain a fall off the Fiscal Cliff
and the economic outlook is such that ZIRP seems warranted until 2015 (subject
now to numbered targets of Unemployment < 6.5% and Inflation outlook
<2.5%). Well… Note a 10 YRS US
auction with indirect bidders (aka foreign central banks and real money) on the
shy side, pushing 10s up to 1.70%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Asian stocks mixed with Japan up strongly again (Nikkei +1.7%), China running out of steam (-1%), Korea up 1.4%
and Oz flat. Something for everybody. EUR bought up before the FED, then back
down in Asia, back up to hit 1.31, as common ground for the EU banking
oversight was found (from March 2015 on)(…) and starting the European session
at 1.308.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Wednesday figures were rather on the softer
side. German CPI -0.2% MoM / +1.9% YoY (from +2% EU harmonized). French CPI on
the other hand went dipping 0.2% (fcst flat after +0.2%) MoM / 1.6% YoY (fcst
+1.8% after +2.1%). Spanish housing transactions are up 12.8% in Oct (from
+0.9% prior).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EZ Industrial Production tanking 1.4% (fcst
flat after rev. -2.3%) MoM, which is an unimpressive -3.6% YoY wda (fcst was
-2.4% after -2.3%, revised lower to -2.8%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US Import Prices down 0.9% on lower oil
(after 3 months of increases and last rev. +0.3%) with Export prices down as
well, -0.7% after revised flat (from +0.4%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Today was another light data day in Europe
with Spanish CPI in line with expectations down 0.2% MoM (from +0.5%), stable
at 3% YoY and Italian figures confirmed at -0.3% MoM / +2.6% YoY. Greek Q3
Unemployment of 24.8% after 23.6% already topped by Sep numbers at 26% from
last week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Morning quotes showing markets by and large
flat in EGBs, 4-5 stronger in the Periphery, across the curve, ahead of today’s
auctions, and half that in the Soft Core. UST 1.70% in overnight trading.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities about flat overall: EStoxx a tick
higher, DAX & CAC a tick lower, Periphery a little stronger, led by Milan.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR right on the 31-handle. Commodities on
yesterday’s closing levels with Gold again a little softer right on the
1700-mark.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
sold EUR 6.5bn in 12m bills at 1.456% on Wednesday, the lowest levels since
March 2012 (last was 1.76%), so the last couple of days haven’t been that
detrimental, after all.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
went and filled the targeted, modest EUR 2bn with EUR 680m 3 YRS at 3.358% (COB
3.435%. Levels were 3.39% 2 weeks and 3.62% one month ago), EUR 803m
off-the-run 5 YRS at 4.200% (COB 4.200%) and EUR 540m 4.90% Jul 2040 at 5.893%
(5.945% at COB). Tail ok in 3s (8cts) and 5s (16cts), maybe a little large on
the long end (42cts). Fair prices and good bid to cover ratios, but no sparkles
either. High BC of 4.8 in 3
YRS has to be seen against the small size of the auction. It seems, however, that price action disappointed. Then again, you can't always have someone squeeze the hell out of these bonds right on acution day every time...</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The new Italian 3 YRS benchmark 2.750% 01
Dec 2015 (ISIN IT0004880990) was sold for just short of EUR 3.5bn, as planned,
at 2.500% (COB 2.595%. The last 3 YRS auction was at 2.64% for Jul 2015s mid
Nov), next to EUR 729m 4.500% Mar 2026 at 4.75% (COB 4.830%) (up to 750m had
been planned). B/C in 3 YRS rather <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ad
minima</i> work.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">But,
hey, who would have guessed we were nearly back in crisis 3 days ago?</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues supply on Wed restricted to
non-IG offerings with French Nexans in for EUR 250m long 5 YRS at MS +354 and,
hear, hear, Bank of Ireland with EUR 250m 10 YRS<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Tier 2 at around 10%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Nothing today.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Agreement through on Greek bail-out #657
with EUR 49.1bn to go south, of which EUR 34.3bn immediately.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Whatever is left in GGBs is still heading
north and providing OSI holders with some nice 50% paper gains for year-end. As
some of these gains are supposed to be transformed into advances to be sent
back to Greece,
this looks like a fairly welcome positive loop. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Although, the whole thing still feels…epic?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Midday levels trailing back to about
unchanged levels with EGBs tightening back in a tick, as the Periphery started
digesting its auctions.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities a bit softer than yesterday
evening. Main flat, but Financials and Crossover a bit tighter.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,33% (-1), OBLs 0,31% (-1), BKOs
-0,063% (-1). UST 1,70% (+3), ahead of the last round of supply with USD 13bn 30
YRS tonight (on the thirteenth...).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s 2,85% (-2), 10s 5,36% (+2). 2-10
YRS spread 251bp (+3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s 1,92% (-2), 10s 4,64% (unch).
2-10 YRS spread 272bp (+2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Mild <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Risk
Off</i> spreading to Commodities (-0.5%), but especially on Gold (-1% and back
through 1700).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Good round of US figures to kick-off the
afternoon. Headline Retail Sales a miss at +0.3% (fcst +0.5% after -0.3%), but
ex Auto and Gas up +0.7% (fcst +0.4% after -0.3%, rev. -0.1%). So people
spending on something else than 4-wheel related matters. <i>Mini iPads – for
instance…</i> Claims better as well at 343k (fcst 369k after rev. 372k) with
Continuous Claims dropping to 3198k (fcst 3210k after rev. 3221k). PPI in line
on ex basis at +0.1% after -0.2% MoM, 2.2% after 2.1% YoY.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US cash open at flat from close (-0.5% from
European closing time) to a shade red, with not much of a follow-up pressure
after mulling things over overnight, was in itself good enough to support
Europe back to unchanged levels in equities and EGBs back to flat. Italy
recovering better from its auction than Spain though.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">UST hitting the widest to Bunds since early
April at 38 (tightest was 5 in July after hitting 46 in April, from -5 one year
ago.) UST +11 since last Friday versus Bunds +4 in late afternoon.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">End of day unconvinced sideways trading.
EGBs broadly unchanged to a tick wider. Swaps softer though. Periphery trading
sideways on lunchtime levels with Italy recouping and Spain a bit wider.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities just a bit softer, trailing a
quarter lower US equities on renewed FC base jumping announcements. But we’re a
far cry from epidemic reactions like a month ago. Just solved it… <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Yawn!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,35% (+1), OBLs at 0,32%
(-1) and BKOs -0,060% (-0,8). UST at 1,72% (+5) COB, ahead of the 30 YRS
auction.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,87% (unch), 10s at 5,38% (+4).
2-10 YRS spread 252bp (+4).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,92% (-2), 10s at 4,63%
(-1). 2-10 YRS spread 272bp (+2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Portuguese 10s down to 7.30%, the lowest
since Feb 2011. Greek 2023s up 75 ticks to 45.0 (12.83% -23bp) and 2042s +50 to
34.0 (10.90% -13bp).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All is good. All back to sleep in the South!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR uninspired, as are Commodities with Gold
stuck below 1700. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Yawn, again!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Markets getting back to some
normality with the Periphery still recovering, although less today after the
auctions, Bunds 5 wider on the week, Italy 10, but Spain 7 tighter across the
curve from last Friday. Equities and Risk oblivious to that anyway and synching
with the US. Getting difficult to find
something crisp out there with reduced news flow and volatility. Excitement to
be found in the US on FC developments, now that Greece, Spain and Italy are
seemingly off the table and that the FED has moved to QE4.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Same. Sideways upwards, subject to
Fiscal Cliff discussions. Italian <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bunga</i>
off the menu (seemingly), as well as Gyros jitters and Spanish gloom. The floor
is probably republican, now. Flash PMIs tomorrow, first for China (fcst 50.8
after 50.5), then France (Mfg 44.9 after 44.5, Serv 46 after 45.8), Germany (M
47.3 after 46.8, S 50 after 49.7), the EZ (M 46.9 after 46.6, S 47 after 46.7)
and the US (51.8 after 52.4). US IP fcst +0.3% after -0.4% and Capacity
Utilization at 78% after 77.8%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European
50 & 100d averages: EStoxx 2524/2493, DAX 7301/7191, CAC 3475/3458, MIB
15584/15338, IBEX 7820/7646.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US
50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU 13133/13166/13002, S&P 1416/1414/1387,
NASDAQ 3000/3026/2989 with AAPL at 591/621/602.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.292, 100d 1.278 & 200d 1.278.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at
1.273& 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,35% (+1);
Luxembourg 1,42% (+1); Netherlands 1,55% (unch); Finland 1,57% (unch); EU 1,61%
(unch); Swaps 1,61% (+2), Austria 1,74% (+2); EIB 1,78% (+1); EFSF 1,89% (unch);
France 1,98% (+1); Belgium 2,12% (unch); Italy 4,63% (-1); Spain 5,38% (+4).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 7bp (unch);
Netherlands 20bp (-1); Finland 22bp (-1); EU 26bp (-1); Swaps 26bp (+1);
Austria 39bp (+1); EIB 43bp (unch); EFSF 54bp (-1); France 63bp (unch); Belgium
77bp (-1); Italy 328bp (-2); Spain 403bp (+3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 45bp (+1,0); 5-10
YRS 82bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 66bp (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,060% (-0,8) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,32% (-1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main +1 to 115 (0,9% wider); Financials -1
to 151 (-0,7% tighter); Cross +2 to 464 (0,4% wider).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2622 / -0,2% (from 2628)
with S&P minis at 1419 (-0,8% from 1431, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 16,1 after 16,0 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 86,7/108,9 (WTI/Brent) from 86,5/109,6
(+0,2%/-0,6%). Gold at 1697 after 1712 (-0,9%). Copper at 365 from 368 (-0,8%).
CRB at EU COB 295 from 294 (+0,3%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">After having been left hung out to dry
yesterday with a 8% plunge down to 826 from 900, the Baltic Dry sunk yet again
3.3% to 799 today.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The latest dip from the post-Summer high of
1109 in Oct had been halted at 916, before that we slipped from 1162 in July to
661 mid-September.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Upcoming
Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)…</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,308 from 1,304</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek 2023s up 75 ticks to 45.0 (12.83%
-23bp) and 2042s +50 to 34.0 (10.90% -13bp).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">Wednesday’s close</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,34% (+2), OBLs at 0,33%
(+2) and BKOs -0,053% (+1,7). UST at 1,67% (+2) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,87% (-8), 10s at 5,34% (-11).
2-10 YRS spread 248bp (-2)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Italian 2s at 1,94% (-14), 10s at 4,64% (-8).
2-10 YRS spread 270bp (+7).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,34% (+2);
Luxembourg 1,41% (+2); Netherlands 1,55% (+2); Finland 1,57% (+1); EU 1,61%
(+3); Swaps 1,59% (+1), Austria 1,72% (+1); EIB 1,77% (+2); EFSF 1,89% (+3);
France 1,97% (+1); Belgium 2,12% (+0); Italy 4,64% (-8); Spain 5,34% (-11).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 7bp (+0);
Netherlands 21bp (+0); Finland 23bp (-1); EU 27bp (+1); Swaps 25bp (-1);
Austria 38bp (-1); EIB 43bp (+0); EFSF 55bp (+1); France 63bp (-1); Belgium
78bp (-2); Italy 330bp (-10); Spain 400bp (-13).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 44bp (+0,0); 5-10
YRS 82bp (+0,0) 10-30 YRS 66bp (-1,0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,053% (+1,7) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,33% (+2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">Main -1 to 114 (-0,9% tighter); Financials
+0 to 152 (0,0% tighter); Cross -1 to 462 (-0,2% tighter).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2628 / +0,2% (from 2623)
with S&P minis at 1431 (+0,0% from 1431, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 16,0 after 15,6 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 86,5/109,6 (WTI/Brent) from 85,8/107,9
(+0,9%/+1,6%). Gold at 1712 after 1707 (+0,3%). Copper at 368 from 368 (+0,0%).
CRB at EU COB 294,0 from 293,0 (+0,3%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">Baltic Dry hung to dry, down 8.% to 826
from 900.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek 2023s 44.25 +75 (13.06% -22bp) 2042s
33.50 -50 (11.03% +13bp)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 8pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,304 from 1,299</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Preciously few things…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Dragging into Year End, unless next Friday
proves the Mayan right.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US housing back into focus next week. Big
Friday US data dump.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Pretty empty government supply slate with
Spanish and Greek bills on Tuesday</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Fri flash PMI Comp fcst 46.9 after
46.5, MfG fcst 46.6 after 46.2 and Services fcst 47 after 46.7; Mon 17 Trade
Balance; Wed 19 Construction; Thu 20 Cons Confidence</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Fri flash PMI MfG fcst 47.3 after 46.8
and Services fcst 50.0 after 49.7; Wed 19 IFO fcst 102.3 after 101.4; Thu 20
PPI; Fr 21 Cons Confidence</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Fri flash PMI MfG fcst 44.9 after 44.5
and Services fcst 46 after 45.8; Fri 21 BIZ Confidence</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Fri Government Debt last EUR 1995bn;
Wed 19 Industrial Orders and Sales; Thu 20 Retail Sales; Fri 21 Consumer Conf</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Fri 14 Q3 House Prices last -3.3%
QoQ/-14.1% YoY & Labour Costs</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Fri CPI, PMI last 52.4, Industrial
Production fcst +0.2% after -0.4%, Capacity Utilization; Mon 17 Empire Manu
fcst 0 after -5.22; Tue 18 NAHB Housing; Wed 19 Housing Starts fcst 873k after
894k, Permits fcst 870k after 868k; Thu 20 Existing Homes Sales fcst 4.85m
after 4.79m;Claims and yet another Q3 GDP revision; Big Friday with Chicago
FED, Pers Income & Spending, Durable Goods;, Michigan Conf.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Yawn!</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">At
least some warmth to shelter us from winter temperatures in Europe…</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/a2uUtMDdhyg" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-70286146598832061762012-12-11T17:53:00.002+01:002012-12-11T18:01:49.014+01:0011 Dec 2012 – “ (Ain’t That) Good News ” (Sam Cooke, 1964)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="PT-BR" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">11 Dec 2012 – “ (Ain’t
That) Good News ” (Sam Cooke, 1964)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/Z2H4D7qKc7Q" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Markets recovering quite nicely from the
Italian shock. Add some better outlook figures and we’re all friends again. The
Spanish bill auction was less punishing than could have been feared. US opening
stronger. Everything else is all good again. Greek bonds stellar.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"(Ain't That) Good News" (Bunds
1,32% +2; Spain 5,45% -9; Stoxx 2623 +1,0%; EUR 1,299 +60) </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not much to chew on overnight. The US ended
slightly positive in reduced volume and volatility with closing levels a shade
below European COB. Awaiting Fiscal Cliff clues or maybe some guidance from the
FED.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Asia mixed, but close to home with China down 0.5%
after the last days run upwards, Japan a touch in the red, the rest sluggishly
positive.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Some press reports fretting about Monti
eventually being lined up on an centrist and “responsible” platform. Like
stated yesterday, we’ll all suddenly turn political analysts, specialising in
the colourful Italian scene, but will thus remain essentially blind for a
while.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No noteworthy macro data to start the day
with the exception of German Wholesale Prices ticking lower to -0.7% from -0.6%
MoM, +3.2% after 4.6% YoY.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Morning quotes 30 minutes into the session
showing markets generally flat, a slight axe into EGBs and Italian bonds still
on the heavier side.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1.29% (-1) / UST 1.62% (flat on
Friday’s levels).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s wider by 7 to hit 2.25% and 10s
equally soft to hit 4.87%. Spain
is holding a little better, just one symbolic basis point wider, in order to
mark Periphery softness (ahead of the 12 & 18m bills sale).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities flat to a tick or two better with Italy again 0.7%, balanced out by Spain 0.5%
firmer. Credit a tick better.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR back to mid-1.29s. Commodities mixed to
a little softer.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Mood swinging back to a brighter one in the
course of the morning with especially Italy getting some support and turning
flat from the initial softness, and everyone getting its monies with Spain
issuing (more than the targeted EUR 3.5bn) EUR 3.9bn in 12 and 18m bills at
2.56% and 2.78% (from 2.80% and 3.03% one month ago), while Greece hit bids for
slightly over EUR 2.7bn in 4-week bills at 3.99% and EUR 1.625bn 6m at 4.38%
(from 3.95% and 4.41% one month ago). Belgium sold EUR 200m 3m at -0.032%
and especially EUR 1bn 12m at -0.0039%, finally having, too, a shot at testing
the sweet taste of negative 1-year yields. France is now done with bills for
the year and will be back in 2013.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Austria</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
sold EUR 550m 2019 at 1.021% and the same amount in 2022s at 1.706% (from
yesterday’s closing levels at 1.205% and 1.700%), both, of course, record
auction lows.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy will sell EUR 6.5bn in 12m bills
tomorrow (last 1.76%) et courageously sticks to its plans to sell a new 3 YRS
benchmark on Thursday with EUR 3.5bn now slated for a 2.750% 01 Dec 2015 (ISIN IT0004880990)
(The last 3 YRS auction was at 2.64% for Jul 2015s mid Nov) and up to 750m to
be added to the 4.500% Mar 2026 (COB 4.965%). And if the Spaniards go for the
2040 on Thursday…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain going for a mere EUR 2bn in 3 and
off-the-run 5 YRS, next to increasing the 4.90% Jul 2040 (6.075% at COB). Announced as well it would provide up to EUR 23bn for the regions. Will need to see the size of the tab for 2013.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues still sporadic but with larger
sizes than yesterday with French retailer Carrefour raising EUR 1bn in 5 YRS at
MS +120 and AT&T going for EUR 1bn 20 YRS at MS +140 (after EUR 1bn 8 YRS
at MS+60 10 days ago).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Good German ZEW numbers, as sole important
European data set of the day, with Current Sentiment slightly under forecast at
5.7 (fcst 6 after 5.4), but with the Economic Sentiment surging to 6.9 (fcst
-11.5 after -15.7) and the EZ ZEW Economic Sentiment rising to 7.6 from -2.6.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">So late-morning mood back into <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Risk On</i> after yesterday’s wobbles.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No need to delve on the general support for
Monti – stemming from outside Italy.
Everyone’s darling.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Midday picture showing a much improved view
of potential Periphery stress with Italy
finally tightening in 15bp from the morning wides and Spain tagging
along.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs mildly softer, after this morning’s
mildly stronger start, but then, they hadn’t had a hugely visceral reaction of the last
days either.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,32% (+2), OBLs 0,31% (+1), BKOs
-0,070% (+0,8). UST at 1,63% (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s 2,98% (-7), 10s 5,48% (-6). 2-10
YRS spread 250bp (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s 2,13% (-5), 10s 4,75% (-6). 2-10
YRS spread 262bp (-1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities crawling back higher, up 0.50%.
Credit recovering with especially Financials 4/2.5% tighter.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR crawling higher. Commodities about
unchanged from morning levels.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds going for a final stampede on
the closing of the buy-back with 2023s now at 43.50 (13.28% -30bp) and 2042s at
33.0 (11.15% -34bp) from yesterday’s closing estimates at 42.50 (13.58%) and
31.75 (11.49%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">So both ends of the GGB curve are now well
over the high end of the buy-back proposals of 40.1 and 32.2.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
Small Business optimism on the softer side at 87.5 (fcst 92.5 after 93.1), but
with the markets awaiting Inventory numbers as main number of the day (fcst
+0.4% after 1.1%) after markets open.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US equities gapping up over 0.5% at open,
shoving European Risk as much higher, too. Wholesale Inventories rising 0.6%
(fcst +0.4% after +1.1%), although Sales were down -0.3% (ex gas). Some stuff might
be piling up, here… More secondary data sets on Economic Optimism down to 45.1,
missing a 50 forecast after 48.6 (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Hmmm?!
Another sentiment miss?</i>) and JOLT Jobs up to 3675 (fcst 3600 after rev.
3547). Who cares? S&P crawling back to election levels 2 months ago and
EStoxx taking out new 2012 highs. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Ain’t
that Good News???</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Pretty good sync in global equities with all
indices across the board trading about +0.75% from yesterday’s European close by
late afternoon. NASDAQ a quarter better with Apple up 3%. Italy and Spain
outperforming, too. EUR happily back to 1.30.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European Risk closing taking out its top of the
year (up 1%, down 0.2% HOD) with Credit strong again (about 4% tighter).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs trading sideways in unconvinced
manner, be it to the tight side or softer. Curves more or less unchanged.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,32% (+2), OBLs at 0,31%
(+1) and BKOs -0,070% (+0,8). UST at 1,65% (+3) COB, ahead of 3 days of auction
supply.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,95% (-10), 10s at 5,45% (-9).
2-10 YRS spread 250bp (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 2,08% (-10), 10s at 4,72%
(-9). 2-10 YRS spread 263bp (+0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds closing at their highs on the
closing of the buy-back with 2023s now at 43.50 (13.28% -30bp), unchanged from
noon, and 2042s at 34.0 (10.90% -59bp) from yesterday’s closing estimates at 42.50
(13.58%) and 31.75 (11.49%). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Ain’t that
Good News?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Note that Commodities didn’t join the Risk
On party again with Oil split, Gold a touch softer, as is Copper.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Markets recovering quite nicely from
the Italian shock. Add some better outlook figures and we’re all friends again.
The Spanish bill auction was less punishing than could have been feared. US
opening stronger. Everything else is all good again. Greek bonds stellar.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Same. Sideways upwards, subject to
Fiscal Cliff discussions and Italian <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">bunga</i>
interventions. Spain to hurt, if Italy weakens further. Amazingly quiet Italian
front, but, then again, the campaign hasn’t started yet. Careful!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">We felt yesterday that EGBs were looking
tight and rather unwilling to shed much more yield, unless real panic spreads,
which was confirmed today. They’re not getting much softer either, on the other
hand. Equities amazingly aloof. Everything good. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Ain’t that Good News?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 12m bills tomorrow. EZ Industrial
Production fcst flat MoM after -2.5% / -2.4% after -2.3% YoY wda. FED</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European
50 & 100d averages: EStoxx 2519/2484, DAX 7289/7167, CAC 3466/3446, MIB
15578/15276, IBEX 7816/7607.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US
50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU 13142/13160/13000, S&P 1417/1413/1386,
NASDAQ 3004/3025/2988 with AAPL at 597/622/601.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.292, 100d 1.276 & 200d 1.278.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at
1.273& 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Next AVFMS will be <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Thursday</b>.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,32% (+2);
Luxembourg 1,39% (unch); Netherlands 1,53% (unch); Finland 1,56% (unch); EU
1,58% (unch); Swaps 1,58% (unch), Austria 1,71% (+1); EIB 1,75% (unch); EFSF
1,86% (-1); France 1,96% (+1); Belgium 2,12% (+1); Italy 4,72% (-9); Spain
5,45% (-9).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 7bp (-2);
Netherlands 21bp (-2); Finland 24bp (-2); EU 26bp (-2); Swaps 26bp (-2);
Austria 39bp (-1); EIB 43bp (-2); EFSF 54bp (-3); France 64bp (-1); Belgium
80bp (-1); Italy 340bp (-11); Spain 413bp (-11).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 44bp (unch); 5-10
YRS 82bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 67bp (-1,0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,070% (+0,8) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,31% (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main -5 to 115 (-4,2% tighter); Financials
-6 to 152 (-3,8% tighter); Cross -19 to 463 (-3,9% tighter).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2623 / +1,0% (from 2598)
with S&P minis at 1431 (+0,8% from 1420, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 15,6 after 16,5 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 85,8/107,9 (WTI/Brent) from 86,4/107,0
(-0,7%/+0,8%). Gold at 1707 after 1713 (-0,4%). Copper at 368 from 370 (-0,5%).
CRB at EU COB 293,0 from 295,0 (-0,7%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oh? BDIY crashed 66 ticks or 3.9% to 900
today. The latest dip from the post-Summer high of 1109 in Oct had been halted
at 916, before that we slipped from 1162 in July to 661 mid-September.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Upcoming
Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)…</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,299 from 1,293</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds closing at their highs on the
closing of the buy-back with 2023s now at 43.50 (13.28% -30bp), unchanged from
noon, and 2042s at 34.0 (10.90% -59bp) from yesterday’s closing estimates at
42.50 (13.58%) and 31.75 (11.49%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Flash PMI releases on Fri 14 everywhere.
HSBC China on Thursday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">For the US, FOMC tomorrow & auction
supply. Retail Sales and IP next Friday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain and Italian bonds on Thursday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Wed IP fcst flat after -2.5% MoM sa;
Fri flash PMI Comp fcst 46.6 after 46.5, MfG fcst 46.6 after 46.2 and Services
fcst 47 after 46.7; Thu EZ CP</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Wed 12 CPI fcst unch +2.%; Fri flash
PMI MfG fcst 47.3 after 46.8 and Services fcst 50.0 after 49.7</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Wed 12 CPI fcst +1.8% after 2.1%, Fri
flash PMI MfG fcst 44.9 after 44.5 and Services fcst 46 after 45.8</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Thu CPI fcst unch +2.6%; Fri
Government Debt last EUR 1995bn</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Wed Housing transactions; Thu CPI
fcst +3% unch, Fri 14 Q3 House Prices last -3.3% QoQ/-14.1% YoY & Labour
Costs</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Wed FOMC; Thu Retail Sales fcst +0.3%
after -0.3%, PPI, Claims; Fri CPI, PMI last 52.4, Industrial Production fcst
+0.2% after -0.4%, Capacity Utilization.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2005
re-recorded together with Jeff Beck & Les Paul. Bow to the Master!</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/Z2H4D7qKc7Q" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-23054350131969503912012-12-10T17:53:00.000+01:002012-12-10T17:55:12.941+01:0010 Dec 2012 – “ Uh...Uh - Bingo Bongo ” (Adriano Celentano, 1982)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="PT-BR" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 Dec 2012 – “ Uh...Uh
- Bingo Bongo ” (Adriano Celentano, 1982)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/Bqgz3fDoKms" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Surprisingly stable Risk. BTPs shot down in
style. Italy? Down. Chinese data? Partially weak. Japan? In recession. French
data? Weak. German data? Strong. Wow! Better have Friday’s PMI numbers really
good. Analysts having to reinvent themselves once more as political experts to glare
into a smoky crystal ball… Italian contagion contained, for now. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Uh…Uh…!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"Uh...Uh - Bingo Bongo " (Bunds
1,30% unch; Spain 5,54% +9; Stoxx 2598 +0,0%; EUR 1,293 -20) </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The US closed mixed on Friday, slightly
above European closing time levels, ending a rather low volatility week (except
for Apple), still looking for an answer to the Fiscal Cliff issue. UST remained
on the heavier side after the NFP, closing the day up 5 at 1.62%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Chinese early month data dump for November
on the disappointing side with the trade balance shrinking to USD 19.6bn (fcst
USD 26.9bn after USD 32bn), as exports grew a paltry 2.9% (fcst +9% after
11.6%) and Imports stood at flat (fcst +2% after +2.4%). CPI was tame at +2
(fcst +2.1% after +1.7%), PPI slid 2.2% (fcst -2% after -2.8%). IP grew 10.1%
(fcst 9.8% after 9.6%) and Retails Sales were in line at +14.9% YoY (fcst
+14.6% after 14.1%). Japan in technical recession with Q3 -0.9% QoQ /3.5% YoY
and Q2 revised to -0.1% from flat.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Monti’s resignation announcement with early
elections probably to take place in February or March didn’t have much of an
impact on the Asian session, which was mostly flat to slightly positive with
China still standing out on the stronger side (+1%), continuing the bounced
back started last Wednesday, and trading on better IP and Retail Sales,
ignoring trade balance woes.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">French biz sentiment at 91 (fcst was 92
unchanged) on really soft IP at -0.7% (fcst +0.2% after -2.7%) MoM / -3.6% YoY
and Manufacturing at -0.9% MoM (fcst -0.1% after revised lower -3.4%) / -4%
YoY. <i>There goes Montebourg’s call for French products… Can’t buy, if not
produced.</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">At least German trade remained solid with
Exports up 0.3% (fcst -0.3% after rev. -2.4%) and Imports up a solid +2.5%
(fcst +0.4% after rev. -1.4%). Finnish IP better at +0.% (fcst -0.5% after
sharply revised lowed -1.1%)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">So, now, Italy… <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Si, claro!</i><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>For once lately,
markets opened unsurprisingly on the soft side with some serious Risk Off on
the Periphery.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 10s spiking out by over 30bp to hit
initially 4.85%, dragging Spain along (+13 to 5.58%). Similar picture on the
short end with Italy out by
20 and past the 2%-mark to 2.04% with Spain +10 and past the 3%-mark to
3.03%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">OMT
virtual support fading, at least on Italy, as no one would be there to credibly
sign off any “conditionalities”. Ah. Tough one. Wasn’t thought that way.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 3 tighter to 1.27%, along with most
other EGBs. German 2s flirting with -0.9%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities down 0.75% on ESToxx with Italy down 2%, Spain
over 1% and Germany
a small quarter.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR pushed to the 29-line. Commodities
slightly firmer.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Talking of Italy and bad news: Oct IP was
worse than expected at -1.1% MoM (fcst -0.3% after rev. -1.3%) / -6.3% YoY wda.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Unfortunately, timing-wise, the Bank of
Italy published today that Italian banks were holding a </span><a href="http://www.bancaditalia.it/statistiche/stat_mon_cred_fin/banc_fin/pimsmc/pimsmc12/sb64_12/suppl_64_12.pdf" target="_blank"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">record amount in BTPs</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> (p. 34) of EUR 340bn in October (+ EUR
13bn on the month and an impressive +EUR 121bn since Oct last year) – and there
comes your negative loop back on the table… And the long, very long LTRO
shadows. And Italian bank shares down the drain (down 6-7%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">At least the EZ Sentix was in line, showing
a slight recovery to -16.8 (fcst -16.9 after 18.8), the highest since sentiment
started to sink in Q2/2012 (low was -30.2 in Aug).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The Greek buy-back is supposedly doing
fine, but was extended until tomorrow noon, boosting bonds the extra mile, up to
42 mid (+125) (13.76% -39bp) for the 2023s and 31.25 (+25) (11.63% -8bp) for
the 2042s. Interesting comment in the official statement: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">“Investors should bear in mind that even if Greece accepts all bonds tendered
in the Invitation, it will continue to engage with its official sector
creditors in considering further steps to put its debt on a sustainable path.
Future measures may not involve an opportunity to exit investments in
Designated Securities at the levels offered for this buy back.”</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Does
this mean that having burnt out the PSI, next will be the OSI - with no further
mercy for private holders?</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">In any case, EUR 27bn supposedly already on
the table with the rest, if must be, possibly coming from Greek banks. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Yeah, they’ll be recapitalized someow at some
stage…</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">“Bills-only Monday”: EUR 2.2bn sold in 3
and 6m Dutch bills at -0.041% and -0.040%, a record low for the 6m tranche,
(from -0.034% and -0.016%), next to the weekly French auction for about EUR 6bn
3, 6 and 12m bills at -0.026%, -0.015% and -0.012% (from -0.22%, -0.008% and
+0.016%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">This is the first time ever France has gone
negative in 12m bills. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bunga, gracie
mille! Signed, Mosco. Uh…Uh!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Belgium for EUR 1.4bn 3m & 12m, Greece
for some chunky EUR 2.125bn 4-week and EUR 1.25bn 6m bills tomorrow, next to
Spanish EUR 3.5bn 12 & 18m (Last 2.80% and 3.03% <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">¡Ay ay ay!</i>), next to Austrian bonds 2019 (COB 1.025%) and 2022s (1.700%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy’s EUR 6.5bn 12m bills sales on Wed
won’t probably come cheap either (last 1.76%) and Thursday was supposed to see
a new Italian 3 YRS, but this might be postponed for something less watched
than a new benchmark. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Uh…Uh!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain intended to go ballsy this week with
bonds to be issued, next to 3 and off-the-run 5 YRS, a retap of the 4.90% 2040
(6.135% at COB tonight) announced for Thursday. Choice maintained, however for
a safer EUR 2bn-size. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Ah…Ah!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues a trickle with the Belgian
strategic oil stock operator Apetra issuing EUR 300m 8 YRS at Belgium +43 / MS
+80 next to unrated Finnish forest manager Tornator with EUR 250m 7 YRS at MS
+200.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Midday picture showing further increased
pressure on Italy, especially with the short-end slipping (and Spain 15 wider
on average, by domino), while the intial bid on EGB eventually was zoomed on
the Hard Core, leaving the Soft Core unchanged to weaker (for Belgium). Schätze
zooming in on all-time lows.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities down about 1% (spread from Italy -3.5% to Germany
-0.4%). Credit wnapping 2.5% wider<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>with
Financials 5% softer. US futures about unchanged, though.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,27% (-3), OBLs 0,27% (-2), BKOs
-0,095% (-1,5). UST 1,60% (-2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s 3,07% (+14), 10s 5,61% (+16).
2-10 YRS spread 254bp (+2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s 2,28% (+44), 10s 4,84% (+31).
2-10 YRS spread 256bp (-13).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR stable in the low 29s, but Commodities
firming up with Oil 0.75% better. Gold likewise. Copper surfing on Chinese good
mood and up 1.5%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No US
figures to start the day nor later to entertain folks. Still, getting equities
to crawl back upwards with a EUR regaining some colours at 1.294 and French and
German equities back to flat. Periphery bonds regaining a couple of basis
points, although not their composure.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US cash open ok, about a 0.25% firmer than
Friday European COB, giving European peers a bit of a leg up to close the day,
with as well Milan reducing losses to -2.4% from -4% around noon.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Very uncomfortable situation with Italy. No
one there to realistically sign off any support call, if needed. Initial quick
analyses putting Berlusconi way behind in the polls were a mere consolation.
And hopes that Monti might go for some social-democratic left-centre-right
solutions are so paved with uncertainties that any electoral spin might be interpreted
the way the markets feel that day. <i>Very refreshing. And not like in cool
refreshing…</i> Hence, the lack of recovery during today’s session, unlike on
Friday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Situation confirmed with Monti stating at
the end of the afternoon he wouldn’t run, acknowledging, too, that there was a
risk of populism on economic or European issues, while hoping this could be
avoided during the campaign. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Uh…uh!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Late afternoon and close confirming the
impression that EGBs seem reluctant to move tighter from here, at least for the
moment with the underlying Risk strength (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ex</i>
Periphery bonds and equities) and with no full-scale panic out there.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closing off tightest levels, as
everyone else.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US markets being opened a total side-issue today,
especially as totally static. EStoxx futures closing eventually unchanged to a
tick.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Credit recovering in Main (closing just 1
wider), but Financials a little shaken (+5, 3.3% wider), Crossover stable in
that environment.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,30% (unch), OBLs at 0,30%
(+1) and BKOs -0,078% (+0,2). UST at 1,62% (unch) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 3,05% (+12), 10s at 5,54% (+9).
2-10 YRS spread 249bp (-3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 2,18% (+34), 10s at 4,81%
(+28). 2-10 YRS spread 263bp (-6).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds closing in stellar manner,
adding 50 ticks from noon: up to 42.50 mid (+175 to Fri) (13.58% -57bp) for the
2023s and 31.75 (+75) (11.49% -22bp) for the 2042s.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not much going in the EUR for the moment.
Italian contagion just as much as bay as with equities. Commodities eventually
firming up a little.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Surprisingly stable equities.
BTPs shot down in style. Italy?
Down. Chinese data? Partially weak. Japan?
In recession. French data? Weak. German data? Strong. Wow! Better have Friday’s
PMI numbers really good. Analysts having to reinvent themselves once as more
political experts to glare into a smoky crystal ball… Contagion contained, for
now. Uh…Uh…!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Same on the menu. Sideways
upwards, subject to Fiscal Cliff discussions and Italian bunga interventions.
Spain hurting, if Italy weakens further. EGBs looking tight and rather
unwilling to shed much more yield, unless real panic spreads. Equities
amazingly aloof.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">ZEW survey tomorrow. Needs to show a brave
Germany. Spanish 12m and 18m bill sales.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European
50 & 100d averages: EStoxx 2517/2479, DAX 7285/7156, CAC 3462/3441, MIB
15581/15253, IBEX 7816/7591.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US
50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU 13147/13156/12999, S&P 1417/1413/1386,
NASDAQ 3006/3024/2988 with AAPL at 600/623/601.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.292, 100d 1.275 & 200d 1.278.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273 &
1.315, then 1.349 (50%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,30% (unch);
Luxembourg 1,39% (+1); Netherlands 1,53% (+1); Finland 1,56% (+1); EU 1,58% (unch);
Swaps 1,58% (unch), Austria 1,70% (+1); EIB 1,75% (unch); EFSF 1,87% (+1);
France 1,95% (unch); Belgium 2,11% (+2); Italy 4,81% (+28); Spain 5,54% (+9).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 9bp (+1);
Netherlands 23bp (+1); Finland 26bp (+1); EU 28bp (unch); Swaps 28bp (unch);
Austria 40bp (+1); EIB 45bp (unch); EFSF 57bp (+1); France 65bp (unch); Belgium
81bp (+2); Italy 351bp (+28); Spain 424bp (+9).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 44bp (unch); 5-10
YRS 82bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 68bp (-2,0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,078% (+0,2) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,30% (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main +1 to 120 (0,8% wider); Financials +5
to 158 (3,3% wider); Cross +2 to 482 (0,4% wider).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2598 / +0,0% (from 2597)
with S&P minis at 1420 (+0,5% from 1413, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 16,2 after 16,5 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 86,4/108,1 (WTI/Brent) from 86,2/107,0
(+0,3%/+1,0%). Gold at 1713 after 1701 (+0,7%). Copper at 370 from 365 (+1,4%).
CRB at EU COB 295,0 from 296,0 (-0,3%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">BDIY ticking lower, again, and again: -3%
to 937 from 966. The last dip from the post-Summer high of 1109 in Oct was
halted at 916.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Upcoming
Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)…</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,293 from 1,295</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds closing in stellar manner,
adding 50 ticks from noon: up to 42.50 mid (+175 to Fri) (13.58% -57bp) for the
2023s and 31.75 (+75) (11.49% -22bp) for the 2042s.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Buy-back price proposal: 38.1-40.1% &
30.2-32.2%</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">ZEW Sentiment on Tue, especially flash PMI
releases on Fri 14 everywhere.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">For the US, FOMC on Wednesday, Retail Sales
and IP next Friday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain and Italian bonds on Thursday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Tue ZEW Sentiment, Wed IP fcst +0.3%
after -2.5% MoM sa; Fri flash PMI Comp fcst 46.6 after 46.5, MfG fcst 46.6
after 46.2 and Services fcst 47 after 46.7; Thu EZ CP</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Tue ZEW Sentiment fcst 6 after 5.4,
Sentiment fcst -11.5 from -15.7, Wholesale PX last -0.6% MoM; Wed 12 CPI fcst
unch +2.%; Fri flash PMI MfG fcst 47.3 after 46.8 and Services fcst 50.0 after
49.7</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Wed 12 CPI fcst +1.8% after 2.1%, Fri
flash PMI MfG fcst 44.9 after 44.5 and Services fcst 46 after 45.8</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Thu CPI fcst unch +2.6%; Fri
Government Debt last EUR 1995bn</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Wed Housing transactions; Thu CPI
fcst +3% unch, Fri 14 Q3 House Prices last -3.3% QoQ/-14.1% YoY & Labour
Costs</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Mon nothing; Tue Small Biz Optimism
last 93.1, Wholesale Inventories fcst +0.4% after 1.1; Wed FOMC; Thu Retail
Sales fcst +0.3% after -0.3%, PPI, Claims; Fri CPI, PMI last 52.4, Industrial
Production fcst +0.2% after -0.4%, Capacity Utilization.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">After
Bunga Bunga, let’s have a down to earth Bingo Bongo.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Uooo!
Uo! Uo! Uo!</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Ua
ua eh eh ih ih oh oh uh uh</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oh
oh oh ua ih ih ih ua ah ah eh eh ih ih</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="DE" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oh oh uh uh eh eh</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/Bqgz3fDoKms" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-63951536313804413492012-12-08T14:07:00.002+01:002012-12-08T14:32:48.436+01:00Shuffle Rewind 03-07 Dec " Only When I Sleep " (The Corrs, 1997)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Shuffle Rewind 03-07 Dec
" Only When I Sleep " (The Corrs, 1997)</span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/2CjLQ-_DQPA" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">MusicLink</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">This week in review (compared to Fri 30
Nov COB):</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
on <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">day</b> for related post, on <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">title</b> for song.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Following volatile and versatile weeks of
Awakening (to the Fiscal Cliff), followed by direction-less trading (in –
temporary - absence of Fiscal Cliff discussions) and then a huge rebound (All
is good!), <a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/12/shuffle-rewind-26-30-nov-somewhere-over.html" target="_blank"><b>the last week of November</b></a> had been Cuddle Time. Nice and easy. A big
Hug for everyone: Bonds, Equities, Periphery, ah, Periphery bonds! Greece…</span></span><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> Didn’t Super Mario himself say, albeit in a
different context: “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">We were living in a
Fairy World</i>”. Fairies, rainbows, wonderful world…<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>We had to put IZ on the case, for a BIG
cuddle!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"</span></b><a href="http://youtu.be/wZFkXQKCuBc" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Somewhere Over The Rainbow</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"
(Bunds 1,38% -6; Spain
5,30% -30; Stoxx 2580 +1,1%; EUR 1,301 +50)</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Europe</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> ended
that week direction-less on its own on </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/11/30-nov-2012-whats-up-4-non-blondes-1992.html" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Friday</span></b></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">30 Nov</b> with Risk still rather firmer
than not, but with equally ok bonds. Macro data remained bleak, although
expectations have been put so low lately that anything about palatable would
do. Not much in terms of FCDRE. The week ended drifting, chatting or checking. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/bwbUeg3W10I" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">What's Up?</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"
(Bunds 1,38% +1; Spain
5,3% -2; Stoxx 2580 unch; EUR 1,301 +30)</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Peace & Love.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">As we ended November, we started December.
Quietly. </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/12/03-dec-2012-out-of-touch-hall-oates-1984.html" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Monday</span></b></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">03 Dec</b> had some </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fiscal Cliff Discussion Risk Event, some Spanish
budget math. Questions on others. Bah… Things felt a bit out of touch with
reality here (equities vs. bonds). And that Greek buy-back prices looked
really, really<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>generous. Outwordly. Then
again, best way to get rid of private ownership. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">After the OMT, the OPM… Obviously, other people’s money.</i> Manufacturing
PMI painted a slightly less bleak picture, but on rock bottom levels. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/ig0NVMVdmoA" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Out Of Touch</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">" (Bunds 1,41% +3; Spain 5,24% -6; Stoxx 2580 unch; EUR 1,306 +50)</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">. Same treatment for </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/12/04-dec-2012-11-oclock-tick-tock-u2-1980.html" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Tuesday</span></b></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Lather.
Rinse. Repeat.</span></i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> Europe still doing about fine on its own and with an urge
to test higher risk levels, in absence of negative news. US remained more
fickle on <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">FCDRE</i>. If it wasn’t for a
bit of FCDRE… Tick. By. Tick. Movements. Equities high. Soft Core closing on
historic lows. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/ajhOjFwuddQ" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">11 O’Clock Tick Tock</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
" (Bunds 1,39% -2; Spain 5,23% -1; Stoxx
2587 +0,3%; EUR 1,308 +20)</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.
And a further sleepy sequel on </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/12/05-dec-2012-furry-happy-monsters-rem.html" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Wednesday</span></b></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">:</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Over and over. Europe still doing rather fine on its own and with an
urge to test higher risk levels, in absence of negative news. However, Spanish
BONOs ended feeling sad… after a botched auction. EGBs basked on a bit of
uncertainty, a repeat of <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">reaaally</i>
low, but better Service PMI numbers and that Spanish weakness with the Soft Core compressing
further. The US remained more nervous and
Apple got trashed. Question of Muppets getting nervous out of boredom, or what?
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/aoc8_aJLpes" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Furry Happy Monsters</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"
(Bunds 1,35% -4; Spain 5,38% +15; Stoxx 2589
+0,1%; EUR 1,307 -10) </span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.
Of course, </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/12/06-dec-2012-magic-carpet-ride.html" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Thursday</span></b></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> had once more a </span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">strong start in Risk to
take out new 2012 highs in Equities and trying to retrade 2012 Credit
lows, too. Core EGBs remained cool, but eventually <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bunga Square</i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">’s</i> rug pulling on Monti scuttled all
that easy living by noon, weighting heavily on the Periphery and boosting Core
EGBs. Super-Mario was gloomy at his show. The equity–bond divergence was not
yet a flyer, though… The US went sideways and
Risk Watchers back to scanning European politics. The EUR fell heavily off the
carpet. </span><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/WwLdyIdY6U8" target="_blank">"Magic Carpet Ride"</a> (Bunds 1,29% -6; Spain 5,46% +8; Stoxx 2605 +0,6%; EUR 1,297-100)</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> . We closed <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/12/06-dec-2012-bruttosozialprodukt-geier.html" target="_blank">Friday</a></b>
musing about the need to find other ways to kill time until Year End. Morning
highs, lunch time lows and then trailing the US. EGBs remained on the stronger
side with augurs seeing a weakening Germany and calls for lower rates putting
the EUR under pressure. Ok, Germans: Now work! Somebody has to pay the bills! <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><a href="http://youtu.be/GJXBUnoJT4Y" target="_blank">"Bruttosozialprodukt"</a></b>
(Bunds 1,3% +1; Spain 5,45% -1; Stoxx 2597 -0,3%; EUR 1,295 -20). NFP were
strong, hitting USTs, but not enough to persuade US equities to do more than
trade sideways.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Eventually, this was a very quiet week,
after all. If it hadn’t been for the EUR volatility, a rather botched Spanish
auction, Apple getting peeled and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bunga
Bunga</i> politics, we would probably have trailed mostly sideways, trying to
sleepwalk into the year-end. And still, if you want to sleep tight, you seem in
need to remain long Risk AND long bonds.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="http://youtu.be/2CjLQ-_DQPA" target="_blank"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"Only When I Sleep" (Bunds 1,30%-8; Spain 5,51% +21; Stoxx 2599 +0,7%; EUR 1,293 -80)</span></b></span></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Slapped
by 12 bp the week France got downgraded
(caught together, hung together) and when Risk went soaring, Bunds had already
recouped 6 bp last week and added a further 8 this week. Summer 2012 levels,
when the living was easy. Or simply back to mid-November… By and large,
range-bound and now rather at the lower end (1.13% - 2.07%, retracements at
1.35%, 1.49% and 1.60% on the upside).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Monday
+3 on Risk On to close at the week’s high of 1.41%, tightening by 2 on Tuesday,
4 on Wednesday after the Spanish auction, snapping 6 tighter on <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bunga</i> Thursday to close at 1.29% before
closing the week at 1.30%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Note
that Schätze moved back strongly into negative territory (-9 to end at -0.080%)
with 5 YRS OBLs outperforming the wings (-11 to 0.29%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">NB:
End of July closing lows in sight for 2 YRS -0.095%, 5 YRS 0.24% and 10 YRS a
little further away at 1.17%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Last
week was Soft Core week, this week Agency bonds were flavour of the day: EU 12 tighter,
EIB 11 tighter, EFSF 13 tighter. Welcome to the compression movement cum flight
into bonds, guys!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Soft
Core still doing ok, though, but caught between the bullets. Still, France, too, was allowed to have an auction right on
historic lows on Thursday and managed to sneak below 2% in 10 YRS. Belgium is piggy-backing, but already expensive enough
compared to France, can’t push much more on
its own. Austria overtaken by both, having had a solo escape from its Soft Core
brethren earlier. Historic lows hit on Friday close in the Soft Core and Agency
bonds. Hard Core lows were in June.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Things
were certainly less straight-line for Periphery bonds than during the previous
week, where Italy had tightened 26bp and Spain 30bp. While Monday saw a brush with 2-year yield
lows with 10 YRS hitting respectively 4.37% and 5.15%, it was difficult to
maintain that drive and while Tuesday was still about ok, although off these
lows, Wednesday’s rather unimpressive Spanish auction (less than target-size
and pretty poor prices) sent BONOs spinning 15bp wider. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bunga Bunga’s</i> rug pulling exercise on Thursday sent Italy and Spain
spinning big time over lunch, some 15 bp higher, before recovering somewhat.
Still, damage done: Italy wider by 4 on the week (-5, -2, +3, +13 &<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>eventually -5, after widening in the morning)
and closing 323 to Bunds (+12) and Spain wider by a quarter for a while, closing
+15 (-6, -1, +15, +8 & -2), ending at 415 to Bunds (from 392).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian
2s softer by 4 on the week (1.84% after 1.80%) and Spain +10 at 2.93% (from
2.83%), both closing 10 better than Friday morning wides. 2-10s flattening for
a while in Italy, before closing unchanged at 26 and steepening somewhat in
Spain (252 after 247).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The Greek bond-buy back prices were finally
disclosed on Monday. And what prices they were! The bonds went through the roof
to hit the buy-back / exchange levels. Obviously other people’s money… These
bonds closed – on a price basis – about 34.3% and 25.7% on Friday 23 Nov and
about 35.60% and 28.50% on Friday 30 Nov. Rather the bid side (then), so put
the offer maybe 1 point higher, but these prices really seem generous. And somehow
5% above the levels only 10 days earlier. No small change…. Obviously, other
people’s money… After the OMT, the OPM… Some corrections thereafter. -0.25% on
Tue (price-wise), split Wednesday (-0.75% / +0.25%). Ending the week with 2023s
at 40.75 (14.15%) and 2042s at 31.0 (11.71%), which is a nice end of the year
give-away to some astute buyers.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Buy-back price proposal: 38.1-40.1% &
30.2-32.2%</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Another historic weekly low in Swaps (up to
11 YRS). 2-10s unchanged at 126, with 2-5s at 44 from 45 and 5-10s adding 1 to 82.
10-30 YRS still steepening, which strikes me as odd, again, ending at 70 (from
63). As last week (+2 to 63), I would expect X-longs to tighten in increased an
increased low-inflation cum <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Risk On
scenario.</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS 0.310% 5 YRS 0.750% 10 YRS 1.580% 30
YRS 2.280% (all-time low was 1.81% in June on a much flatter curve).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Having
tightened up to 14% two weeks ago and drifted about unchanged last week, Credit
tried to push tighter, in line with upbeat equities.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Credit indices still seem to attempt taking
out new lows for the year (Main 112 in March, today 115 before bounce back;
Financials hitting 146 past the Oct 153 point; Cross low 462 mid Sep, 468
today). Closing another 3.5% tighter this week, on average.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Highs were respectively 208 &184 in Nov
2011 and then May 2012 in the Main, 355 & 309 for Financials and 842 &
753 for the Crossover. So we’ve come some way here, too.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European
Risk was definitively on a ramp, following the prior week’s 1.1% equity rise in
cuddly surrounding, but totally held back by US <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">FCDRE </i>(and some, but not much, Periphery jitters). Repeated attempt
to open higher and take out new 2012 highs have repeatedly been scuttled by
less supportive US markets and the week see-sawed higher, tick by tick, with
Monday unchanged, Tuesday up 0.3%, Wednesday 0.1% and Thursday’s winning push
to new highs (2618) and ending up 0.6%. Closing Friday down 0.3%, mainly on a weak
German outlook and especially on lacklustre US.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Volatility
rising somewhat in the US.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European
50 & 100d averages: EStoxx 2514/2476, DAX 7279/7147, CAC 3457/3437, MIB
15569/15232, IBEX 7813/7575.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US
50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU 13153/13152/12998, S&P 1418/1412/1386,
NASDAQ 3009/3023/2988 with AAPL at 602/623/601.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Uhh…
Apple… Getting peeled in Wednesday’s session. Performance over the last year has
been that outrageous that we need to crawl back in time to find some chart
points. $525-530 and then 506 (that was 3 weeks ago, thinking of it…). If we
take the low of the latest (relative) weak patch in Nov 2011 at 364 as base and
21 Sep 2012 705 high, we end with a 50% retracement at 534, a level where we
are around nowadays, then 494 and 444. 50g average at 605 catching up on 200d
at 601. Suit yourself. Rebounced from 520 at Wed's open to 569 at Fri's open, just close over $30 lower back to... that very 533.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Pogo
time in EUR/USD… Having shaken off its Risk Off banner role with the Fiscal
Cliff discussion putting event risk back into the US camp, the EUR had rocketed
260 pips two weeks ago, ending at 1.296 (from 1.27), and added another 50 pips
last week to 1.301. Chart-wise, things were pointing to mid-1.31, which was
eventually nearly, but only nearly, reached on Wednesday at 1.313, before losing
steam back to mid-1.30 and getting <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bunga</i>’ed
on Thursday (-100), falling off the Magical Carpet Ride, and further depressed by the German eco outlook and rate cut discussions at the end of the week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Mon
+50, Tue +20, Wed -10, Thu -100, Fri -20.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Resistance
1.315-1.317 area. EUR: 50d 1.291, 100d 1.270 & 200d 1.279. Fibo retracement
(of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273& 1.315, then
1.349 (50%).Jul 2012 to Sep rebound levels: 1.231 – 1.247 – 1.261 – 1.274 –
1.291 -1.317 .</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Commodities
range-bound to softer: Oil -3% with WTI drifting to the low of a 86-89 range,
Brent 111-107. Gold, unable to break over 1750 last week, fell from 1720 down
to 1685, before rebounding past 1700 and settling there. Copper would rather
have traded the upside, especially driven by China’s rebound in the middle-of
the week, but weighted lower by its peers (+1%). CRB (-1%) representative and
ranging below the 300-mark.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">After last week’s furious EUR 27.7bn (of which EUR 7bn
for an EFSF 1-year deal) in 30 deals, December started in quieter manner with
19 deals totalling EUR 14bn. Again, mixed ware, but tending rather to the safe
side with EUR 3.75bn issued in covered bond format (KBC, NAB, SG) and EUR 1.6bn
issued for German SSA names (LBank, Hessen and Schleswig-Holstein). EUR 4bn in
mainstream / household name corporates (Deutsche Post, Rio Tinto, Metro,
Auchan, Air France). Two Italian issuers, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">pre-Bunga
return</i>, with Unicredit issuing 750m in senior debt and Generali EUR 1.25bn
in Tier 2 bonds. Credit Agricole adding to the 2 YRS senior FRN round (as BNPP
and BPCE in the previous week).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook:
</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Same
on the menu: Broadly sideways, unless a shoe drops. If the sun shines, test the
upside. Fiscal Cliff uncertainty remains on the menu. Italy becoming again a
wobbly candidate for some Periphery stress. Need to see if the Greek buy-back
will take Greece off the radar screens (for a while).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Lots of sentiment data with especially the
flash PMI round on Friday to be scrutinized.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs, and now all of them, very strong
alongside very tight Risk. Seems a little odd and decorrelated. Compression
movement still on-going with the Soft Core (and the Periphery, unless <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bunga’</i>ed) tightening in on Germany. Core
short end taking clues from the rate cute / negative rates discussions with
Schätze back near historic, negative lows.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">On the week (compared to Fri 30 Nov
COB):</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,30% (-8);
Luxembourg 1,38% (-11); Netherlands 1,52% (-9); Finland 1,55% (-7); EU 1,58%
(-12); Swaps 1,58% (-9); Austria 1,69% (-5); EIB 1,75% (-11); EFSF 1,86% (-13);
France 1,95% (-9); Belgium 2,09% (-7); Italy 4,53% (+4); Spain 5,45% (+15).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 8bp (-3);
Netherlands 22bp (-1); Finland 25bp (+1); EU 28bp (-4); Swaps 28bp (-1); Austria
39bp (+3); EIB 45bp (-3); EFSF 56bp (-5); France 65bp (-1); Belgium 79bp (+1);
Italy 323bp (+12); Spain 415bp (+23).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 44bp (-1,0); 5-10
YRS 82bp (+1,0) 10-30 YRS 70bp (+7,0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2
YRS German BKOs closed -0,080% (-9) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,29% (-11), on the week.
with UST at 1,62% (+1). Swiss 2 YRS down to -0.295%, after an about unchanged prior
week at -0.230%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main at 119 from 123 (-3,3% tighter);
Financials at 153 after 160 (-4,4% tighter); Cross at 480 from 497 (-3,4%
tighter).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2597 / +0,7% from 2580
with S&P minis at 1413 / +0,1% from 1412, at European COB last week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 16,5 after 15,8 last week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 86,2/107,0 (WTI/Brent) from 88,5/110,9
(-2,7%/-3,6%). Gold at 1701 after 1712 (-0,6%). Copper at 365 from 361 (+1,1%)
. CRB closes 296 from 299 (-1,0%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Another
down week for the BDIY, and back through the 1000-mark, at 966 from 1086 last
week (-11%) and from the last 1104-peak 2 weeks ago.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Xmas
shipping really, really, really over? Upcoming Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)
an excuse? Still, one to watch for the real economy.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Intermediate
2012 high(post-Chinese New Year) was at 1165 early May after a 10-year low at
647 early Feb, before dipping to 872 in June, rising back to 1162, retesting
lows at 661 mid-Sep, re-testing highs at 1109 before sliding back to 916 in the
last down-leg</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,295 after 1,301 last Friday</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">guesstimate</i>:
Ending the week with 2023s at 40.75 (14.15% yield) and 2042s at 31.0 (11.71%
yield), which is a nice end of the year give-away to some astute buyers.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">They closed about 34.3 and 25.7 on Friday
23 Nov and about 35.60 (16% yield) and 28.50 (12.5% yield) on Friday 30 Nov. Buy-back
price proposal: 38.1-40.1% & 30.2-32.2%. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Other People’s Money…</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels Friday COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">German Exports on Mon (somebody has to
grow!), ZEW Sentiment on Tue, especially flash PMI releases on Fri 14
everywhere. For the US, FOMC on Wednesday, Retail Sales and IP next Friday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not much pencilled in government
supply-wise, mostly bills (EUR 4bn Dutch 3 & 6m and EUR 6bn French 3, 6 and
12m on Monday; Belgium, Greece, Spain on Tuesday). Italian 12m bills on Wed. Spanish
3 YRS, off-the-run 5 YRS and, ballsy, given this week’s lukewarm auction, 2040
bonds on Thursday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US going for USD 32bn 3 YRS on Tue, USD
21bn 10 YRS on Wed and USD 13bn 30 YRS on Thu.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Mon 10 Sentix Sentiment fcst -18 after
-18.8; Tue ZEW Sentiment, Wed IP fcst +0.3% after -2.5% MoM sa; Fri flash PMI
Comp fcst 46.9 after 46.5</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Friday Industrial Production fcst flat
/ -1.5% from last -1.8% MoM/-1.2% YoY; Mon Exports fcst -0.6% after -2.4%, Tue
ZEW Sentiment fcst 6 after 5.4; Wed 12 CPI; Fri flash PMI MfG fcst 47.1 after
46.8 and Services fcst 50.3 after 49.7</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Mon Biz Sentiment, IP fcst +0.1% after
-2.7% MoM, Wed 12 CPI, Fri flash PMI MfG last 44.5% and Services last 45.8</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Mon IP fcst -0.3% after -1.5%, Wed
final Q3 GDP; Thu CPI; Fri Government Debt</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Wed Housing transactions; Thu CPI,
Fri 14 Q3 House Prices & Labour Costs</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Mon nothing; Tue Small Biz Optimism
last 93.1, Wholesale Inventories fcst +0.4% after 1.1; Wed FOMC; Thu Retail
Sales fcst +0.3% after -0.3%, PPI, Claims; Fri CPI, PMI last 52.4, Industrial
Production fcst +0.2% after -0.4%, Capacity Utilization.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click link under title or below for
today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">You're only just a dreamboat / Sailing
in my head</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Are
you meaning <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">“Risk awareness”</i>???</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/2CjLQ-_DQPA" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">MusicLink</span></b></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-62804677329583230192012-12-07T18:02:00.001+01:002012-12-07T18:08:48.978+01:0007 Dec 2012 – “ Bruttosozialprodukt ” (Geier Sturzflug, 1982)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="DE" style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">07 Dec 2012 – “ Bruttosozialprodukt
” (Geier Sturzflug, 1982)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/GJXBUnoJT4Y" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Hmmm… Need to find another way to kill time
until Year End. Morning highs, lunch time lows and then trailing the US. EGBs
on the stronger side with augurs seeing a weakening Germany and calls for lower
rates putting the EUR under pressure. Ok, Germans: now work! Somebody has to
pay the bills!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="DE" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"Bruttosozialprodukt
" (Bunds 1,3% +1; Spain 5,45% -1; Stoxx 2597 -0,3%; EUR 1,295 -20)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The US performance after European close
was fairly uneventful and essentially moving sideways below HOD for most of the
session. As nothing was dropping, the 0.3% uptick back to HOD in the last 30
minutes then finalized the day.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Asia mostly flat with exception of Oz, up a
small 1% and especially China still ripping, shaking off the last weeks’
depressed mood, closing about 2% higher, extending the gains from Tuesday’s
yearlong low to 7% - and incidentally <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">riiiiiiight</i>
back to the 50d average.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not much more in overnight news. Monti’s
government made it through the latest confidence vote in the lower house, but <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bunga Bunga is back in da House</i>.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">If the ECB yesterday sounded only cautious
to gloomy, it’s because they hadn’t yet seen the Bundesbank forecast, otherwise
they would have been less sanguine (unless they really think that the Periphery
will propel things): 2013 GDP outlook slashed by four to 0.4% from 1.6%,
Q4/2012 to be bleak and GDP expectations lowered to +0.7% from 1%, while saying
that the German economy was still “in good shape” and that employment shouldn’t
be impacted too much. 2014 GDP is seen at 1.9%, subject to resolution of the
debt crisis. Inflation to remain subdued. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Well,
if that’s not a reason to plough into equities…</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Ending the week with umpteenth, accustomed
slight Risk On. why kick the habit?</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds up 1bp to 1.30% (UST +1 to 1.58%).
Hard Core same. Soft Core 1bp firmer, but the Periphery drifting a little wider
with Spanish 2s right at 3% (+5) and 10s just below 5.50% (+3). Italian 2s
still below 2% at 1.94% (+3) and 10s shifting away from 4.50% at 4.60% (+2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunga,
why did you spoil the party?</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities about unchanged half an hour into
the cash session, but 0.50% lower than opening future quotes.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR still drifting lower at 1.294 (that’s
about 200 pips below Wednesday’s highs) and Commodities mostly unchanged with
Gold sluggishly resting on the 1700-handle.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No government supply today; only EUR 4bn 3
and 6m bills on Monday, next to the weekly French auction for EUR 6bn 3,6 an
12m bills.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain going ballsy next week with among the bonds to
be issued, next to 3 and off-the-run 5 YRS, a retap of the 4.90% 2040 (6.07% at
COB) announced for next Thursday (with Wednesday’s auctioned paper still about 15bp
under water in the close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues supply limited to Crédit
Agricole going 2 YRS FRN route for EUR 1.25bn at 3mE +45.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Markets then en route to take a serious nap
before NFP, hoping to then rush into the weekend unharmed. Getting a bit of a
slide in Risk appreciation with Spain still adrift and equities pushing lower
and slightly negative by lunchtime with the German IP not exactly helpful.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">German Oct Industrial Production a downer,
but then the Bundesbank said so much this morning, falling 2.6% MoM sa (fcst was 0%
after -1.8%, rev. -1.3%). Sharp drop on YoY nsa wda basis, down -3.7% after
-0.8%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greece</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
final Q3 GDP revised to -6.9% (from -7.2%), the seventeenth negative quarter,
while Portugal’s
was revised a tick lower to -0.9% QoQ (after -1% in Q2) / -3.5% YoY, for an
eighth quarter of contraction.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Midday levels, a witness of fairly
uninspired markets. EGBs +/- 1 bp, rather -1 actually, catching up on
yesterday’s Bund sprint, and with the Soft Core ticking tighter still.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities down -0.4%, after having gapped up
about 0.50% in pre-cash trading, to retest yesterday’s new 2012 highs, and then
sliding gradually 1% from there. Credit 1-2 ticks / 1% wider, in line.
Periphery still wobbly and probably okay given the softer tone.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not soft at all were Hellenic bonds, rising
Icarus-like, to 40.5 (+100) and 31.25 (+75) and bringing yields crashing down
to 14.24% (from 14.75%) and 11.63% (from 11.85%). Buy-back supposed to end
today, but this being a Greek deal…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,30% (+1), OBLs 0,30% (unch), BKOs
-0,065% (-1,4). UST 1,58% (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,99% (+4), 10s at 5,50% (+4).
2-10 YRS spread 252bp (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,95% (+4), 10s at 4,59%
(+1). 2-10 YRS spread 263bp (-5).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1.293 in
the tightest of 20-40 range. Commodities unchanged.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Slovak ECB member Makuch revealing that the
rate cut debate had been serious yesterday, as well negative rates discussions.
Separate rumours at the same time spoke of a majority having been in favour.
Add that to weaker German figures and there you go; enough to dip the EUR to
test the 29-figure.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Looks like the “bosses” (Draghi, Coeuré,
Asmussen & Weidman) drowned that rate cut thing. But now, it’s out there…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">NFP a flyer with 146k jobs added (fcst 85k
after 171k, albeit revised to 138k). Private Payrolls strong at +147k (fcst 90k
after 184k, even revised up to 189k). Manufacturing remains weak, though, at
-7k (fcst -4 after +13k, rev. +10). Unemployment headline rate now down to 7.7%
(fcst was unchanged at +7.9%). Hourly earnings in line with expectations at
+0.2% MoM / 1.7% YoY (up from 0% / 1.6%). Household employment at -122 after
+410. All is good!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Good for a 0.6% push back up in equities,
slightly above Thursday’s closing levels.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">UST sliding a further 4bp to 1.62%. 20
ticks impact on Bund futures, adding 1bp in cash.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US cash open ok at +0.25-0.4%, but not
outrageous either (All lot of good news are already priced in at these levels
and markets want that Fiscal Cliff discussions behind, before getting too
excited), so European Risk rapidly ticked back to closing levels again, leaving
Bunds still hurting a little (with UST still out by 5) and the rest of the EGB
gang test (yet again) new lows. Michigan Confidence a spoiler, too, falling to
74.5 (forecast was a slight correction to 82 from 82.7).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All the more a reason not to get
over-excited.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">NFP second thoughts involve Thanksgiving
& Black Friday / weekend hiring, as well as drop-outs on the job seeker
front. Whatever… Best is not to move.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian BTPs snapping tighter in the course
of the afternoon with Bunga supporters asking for an “orderly” end to Monti’s
government, interpreted as a (longer) (<a href="http://youtu.be/FGy0N9SW82c" target="_blank">haggle</a>)
process that might not be immediate.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Good for Spain and especially good for the FR
/ BE pair, propelled yet a little tighter to close the week on record lows.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European equities retesting lunchtime lows nearing
the close (-0.5%), which ends the week at +0.7%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Credit eventually ticking 2 wider (1.5%).
Apple still shaking its cart.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Hard Core faring about alright (-1), Soft
Core dancing with France at 1.95% in 10s, 0.635% in 5s and 0.030% in 2s.
Belgium nearing the 2%-mark as well.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,30% (+1), OBLs at 0,29%
(-1) and very strong BKOs at -0,080% (-2,9). UST at 1,62% (+5) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,93% (-2), 10s at 5,45% (-1).
2-10 YRS spread 252bp (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,84% (-7), 10s at 4,53%
(-5). 2-10 YRS spread 269bp (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds closing the 2023s at 40.75
(14.15%) and 2042s at 31.0 (11.71%)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR eventually balancing out, lacking
follow-up pressure. Commodities trading about flat to yesterday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Hmmm… Need to find another way
to kill time until Year End. Morning highs, lunch time lows and then trailing
the US. EGBs on the stronger side with augurs seeing a weakening Germany and
calls for lower rates putting the EUR under pressure. Ok, Germans: now work!
Somebody has to pay the bills!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Same on the menu. Broadly
sideways, unless a shoe drops. If the sun shines, test the upside. Fiscal Cliff
uncertainty remains on the menu. Italy becoming again a wobbly candidate for
some Periphery stress. Need to see if the Greek buy-back will take Greece off
the radars (for a while).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Lot of sentiment data new week with the flash
PMI round on Friday to be scrutinized.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2514/2476, DAX 7279/7147, CAC 3457/3437, MIB 15569/15232, IBEX 7813/7575.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13153/13152/12998, S&P 1418/1412/1386, NASDAQ 3009/3023/2988 with AAPL at
602/623/601.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.292, 100d 1.274& 200d 1.279.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at
1.273& 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t miss the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Shuffle Rewind</b> over the weekend.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,30% (+1);
Luxembourg 1,38% (-1); Netherlands 1,52% (-1); Finland 1,55% (+1); EU 1,58%
(-1); Swaps 1,58% (-1), Austria 1,69% (-3); EIB 1,75% (unch); EFSF 1,86% (-1);
France 1,95% (-4); Belgium 2,09% (-3); Italy 4,53% (-5); Spain 5,45% (-1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 8bp (-2);
Netherlands 22bp (-2); Finland 25bp (unch); EU 28bp (-2); Swaps 28bp (-2);
Austria 39bp (-4); EIB 45bp (-1); EFSF 56bp (-2); France 65bp (-5); Belgium
79bp (-4); Italy 323bp (-6); Spain 415bp (-2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 44bp (unch); 5-10
YRS 82bp (+1,0) 10-30 YRS 70bp (+3,0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,080% (-2,9) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,29% (-1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main +2 to 119 (1,7% wider); Financials +2
to 153 (1,3% wider); Cross +5 to 480 (1,1% wider).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2597 / -0,3% (from 2605)
with S&P minis at 1413 (+0,1% from 1411, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 16,5 after 16,5 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 86,2/107,0 (WTI/Brent) from 85,9/107,0
(+0,3%/unch). Gold at 1701 after 1700 (+0,1%). Copper at 365 from 364 (+0,3%).
CRB at EU COB 296,0 from 298,0 (-0,7%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">BDIY remains on the slide, down to 966 from
990 (down 11% from last week).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Xmas
shipping really, really, really over? Upcoming Chinese New Year (10 Feb 2013)?</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Still,
one to watch for the real economy.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,295 from 1,297</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek <i>guesstimate</i>: Through the roof, especially in 10s… 2023
40.75 / 14.15% (+175 / -60bp to yesterday) and 2042 31.0 / 11.71% (+50 / -4bp).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Buy-back price proposal: 38.1-40.1% &
30.2-32.2%</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">German Exports on Mon (somebody has to
grow!), ZEW Sentiment on Tue, especially flash PMI releases on Fri 14
everywhere. For the US, FOMC on Wednesday, Retail Sales and IP next Friday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not much pencilled in government
supply-wise, mostly bills (EUR 4bn Dutch 3 & 6m and EUR 6bn French 3, 6 and
12m on Monday; Belgium, Greece, Spain on Tuesday). Some Periphery bonds next
Thu.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Mon 10 Sentix Sentiment fcst -18 after
-18.8; Tue ZEW Sentiment, Wed IP fcst +0.3% after -2.5% MoM sa; Fri flash PMI
Comp fcst 46.9 after 46.5</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Mon Exports fcst -0.6% after -2.4%, Tue
ZEW Sentiment fcst 6 after 5.4; Wed 12 CPI; Fri flash PMI MfG fcst 47.1 after
46.8 and Services fcst 50.3 after 49.7</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Mon Biz Sentiment, IP fcst +0.1% after
-2.7% MoM, Wed 12 CPI, Fri flash PMI MfG last 44.5% and Services last 45.8</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Mon IP fcst -0.3% after -1.5%, Wed
final Q3 GDP; Thu CPI; Fri Government Debt</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Wed Housing transactions; Thu CPI,
Fri 14 Q3 House Prices & Labour Costs</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Mon nothing; Tue Small Biz Optimism
last 93.1, Wholesale Inventories fcst +0.4% after 1.1; Wed FOMC; Thu Retail
Sales fcst +0.3% after -0.3%, PPI, Claims; Fri CPI, PMI last 52.4, Industrial
Production fcst +0.2% after -0.4%, Capacity Utilization.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Lacking
further inspiration a song about increasing “Bruttosozialprodukt” (German for
GDP) might seem fitting.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">For
non-German speaker, English lyrics <a href="http://home.wlu.edu/~smitkam/102/brutt.html" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/GJXBUnoJT4Y" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-23231590979995070282012-12-06T17:53:00.001+01:002012-12-06T19:01:05.579+01:0006 Dec 2012 – “ Magic Carpet Ride ” (Steppenwolf, 1968)<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">06 Dec 2012 – “ Magic Carpet Ride ” (Steppenwolf, 1968)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/WwLdyIdY6U8" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Strong start in Risk to take out
new 2012 highs in Equities and trying to retrace near 2012 Credit lows, too. Core
EGBs cool. Bunga Square’s rug pulling scuttled all that easy living by noon,
weighting on the Periphery and boosting Core EGBs. ECB gloomy. Equity – bond divergence
not a flyer yet, though… US sideways and Risk Watchers back to scanning
European politics. EUR falling off the carpet.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"Magic Carpet Ride" (Bunds 1,29%
-6; Spain 5,46% +8; Stoxx 2605 +0,6%; EUR 1,297 -100)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Lather.
Rinse. Repeat. Bla bla bla. Snore. </span></i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US had a split close, mostly
due to Apple’s biggest slide in 4 years (down $37 or 6.4%), for which no one
seems to be able to pinpoint a definite reason, outside definitively more
sellers than buyers (and that is in good volumes and a final 2.5% dunk in the
closing hour).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Performance has been that outrageous that
we need to crawl back in time to find some chart points. $525-530 and then 506
(that was 3 weeks ago, thinking of it…). If we take the low of the latest
(relative) weak patch in Nov 2011 at 364 as base and 21 Sep 2012 705 high, we
end with a 50% retracement at 534, pretty much where we are now, then 494 and
444. 50g average at 605 catching up on 200d at 601. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Suit yourself.</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Rather uneventful Asian session, mostly up,
but for China,
paring a little bit of Wednesday morning’s surge.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Note, anecdotally, or not, that despite promises of
5% GDP growth (and tons of inflation), 10 JGBs closed on a historic low (as so
many) of 0.69%, which shows how much trust there is in the promised reflation
attempt.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Note, too, that S&P considers the Greek
buy-back as a Selective Default and downgraded it to SD from CCC. But with next
to no private ownership in the future and the OSI obviously intending to
mark-to-market Greece
at 100 (until it stops to do so), who should still care?</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Now usual (slight) European <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Risk On</i> start with European equities
catching up on the US
close (+0.3%). Credit the usual 1-2 tighter open.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs flattish to a tick softer, after
yesterday’s strong close. Bunds unchanged at 1.34% (UST 1.59%). Curve
unchanged. Periphery bonds open a bit stronger (after yesterday’s 15bp widening
in BONOs, given the rather botched auction).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR a tick softer at 1.305 with Commodities
trading sideways, having slid from 1.308 in Asian trading. Gold unchanged, caught
below 1700.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Waiting
for Super-Mario show after lunch. Then for the NSF. Then for the weekend. Then
for Xmas. Then for Year End. Mayan calendar permitting…</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">French Q3 unemployment better than expected
at 10.3% after 10.2% (fcst 10.5%) with Mainland staying below the (expected) 10%-mark
at 9.9% (up from 9.7%, rev. 9.8%). 29k added (after 65k). Then again, a lot of
firings have been postponed from the election period, past the summer, but are
on-going in Q4. So that 10% will eventually be flashed.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bit of a sportive sprint to hit once more
the +1%-mark in equities, taking out yesterday’s highs and printing a new 2012
high at 2618. As pointed out yesterday, the Sep intra-day high was first taken out at
2608 to hit 2610 in
EStoxx. 2611 was the 2012 intraday high of 16 Mar, broken to the downside in
Aug 2011. 3068 remains the post-Lehman high of Feb 2011), so there still is a bit
of room there (some 18%)…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Credit overdoing the move with Main 2.5%
tighter by mid-morning and financials even 4.5% tighter (passing the mid Oct
low at 153 and now back May 2011 levels).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Q3 GDP confirmed -0.1% QoQ / -0.6% YoY, as
expected. EZ Household consumption in Q3 actually holding better than expected
at flat QoQ (fcst -0.2% after -0.2%, albeit with Q2 revised to -0.4%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek Unemployment hitting 26% in September
from 25.3%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">German Factory orders hopping above
consensus with +3.9% MoM (fcst +1% after -3.3%, rev. -2.4%). YoY nsa still down
2.4%, but better, too (fcst -5.6% after -4.7%, rev. -3.9%). At least this still
works in Europe…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The modestly-sized EUR 4bn French OAT
auction to end French long end supply for the year went through in style with EUR
1.4bn at 1.010% for the 4.25% Oct 2018 (COB 1.015%), EUR 1.7bn at 1.270% for
the 3.75% Oct 2019 (COB 1.285%, last auctioned at 1.39% one month ago) and EUR
900m at 2.560% for the 2.75% Oct 2027 (COB 2.565%). No real comparable past
auctions. Suffice to say that this auction was dealt at historical lows. In
comparison, last month’s 10 YRS auction was at 2.22% (closing again at 1.99%
today).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues in covered bond format from
Australian NAB for EUR 1bn 10 YRS at MS+ 37 and Société Générale for a big EUR
1.5bn 5 YRS at MS +25. Unrated Air France issued EUR 500m at 6.375% in
long 5 YRS (ca. MS +557). </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Hypo Alpe Adria issued EUR 1bn Tier 2, guaranteed
by Austria,
at MS +82 / +70 over the RAGB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Periphery getting a big hit by late morning
with 2 YRS Italians over 10 wider to 1.88% and both 10 YRS suddenly widening
5bp to the symbolic 4.50% for Italy
and 5.43% for Spain.
Trigger being <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Il Cavaliere</i>’s
intention to scuttle a non-confidence vote in Parliament with his party
unwilling to support Monti’s growth plan. <i>Bunga Square pulling the rug…</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Ah. Periphery headline risk in a quiet
market. Hadn’t had that for a while. Too much complacency out there of late…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Thought everything was fine, now, and that
we had left the Crisis behind us.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Whoa!</span></i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
Violent movement, scuttling <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROn</i> by
midday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities back to up a quarter (down 0.75%
from the top), Credit snapping back to unchanged.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds a tick tighter, Hard Core flat, Soft
Core +3 (There goes the sub-2% for France again). Periphery getting a
huge slap with Italians soaring 20bp (nearing the symbolic 2%-level), pushing Spain
past 3 in
2s and past 5.50% in 10s.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,33% (-1), OBLs 0,35% (-1), BKOs
-0,012% (-0,7). UST 1,58% (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 3,02% (+11), 10s at 5,51% (+13).
2-10 YRS spread 249bp (+2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,97% (+20), 10s at 4,57%
(+12). 2-10 YRS spread 260bp (-7).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR and Commodities barely changed.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">BoE unchanged. ECB unchanged. Periphery
getting a little calmer, but will remain cautious on <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Bunga Square Scare</i> (BSS).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US Claims to kick-start the afternoon in a
more positive spin at 370k (fcst 380k after 393k, revised 395k) and Continuous
Claims at 3205k (fcst 3275k after 3287K, rev. 3305).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Ok, en route for tomorrow’s NFP (fcst +86k
after +171k) with Unemployment expected to remain stable at 7.9%. Will need to
check Household employment and government jobs, the late engines for the
improved situation.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Super-Mario show a bit tired with not much
in terms of crisp news (and, then, where from?). Inflation to fall below 2% next
year. Growth <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">beurgh</i> until the end of 2013. A rate cut has been
discussed – and shelved (Always <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">keep the
Hope alive</i>). Negative rates? Bof, to be seen (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Never say never</i>). Oh, and someone even asked about the OMT? Yeah, do
you remember? Conditionality & Support. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Anyone
seen the Loch Ness monster lately?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Whatever, the whole thing didn’t have much
of an impact with levels before and after the press conference by and large the
same and markets readying up for the US open – and the now-accustomed FCDRE and
Apple-jelly movements.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Periphery bonds recovering from their
initial shock, step by step. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">BSS</i>
looming, though…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US cash open on the flatter side. Like flat
flat flat. Like a carpet flat.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs maintaining their momentum on the
gloomy ECB outlook (not a surprise, though), fickle equities on their highs and
fickle Periphery.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Still, equities managing to shake off the
Periphery stress and arcane Italian politics and concentrating on trailing US
stocks tick for tick, yet again in total sync compared to yesterday’s close.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Strong tightening move in agency paper,
which had lagged EGBs a little, flat to, or even outperforming Bunds, and definitively
leaving the Soft Core behind today. EIB zooming in on Austria. Soft Core caught
in-between and eventually unchanged, or just a tick better. Then aagin, new
lows everyday…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Periphery damage about under control with
Spain closing well off-wides, but Italy shaken (not stirred).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,29% (-5), OBLs at 0,30%
(-6) and BKOs -0,051% (-4,6). UST at 1,57% (-1) COB. Short end of both back
below 2%, respectively 3%-mark.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,95% (+4), 10s at 5,46% (+8).
2-10 YRS spread 251bp (+4).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,91% (+14), 10s at 4,58%
(+13). 2-10 YRS spread 268bp (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds balancing out near buy-back mid
prices at 39.00 (+50 ticks) and 30.50 (flat).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The EUR didn’t like the Magic Carpet Ride
and the return of political instability in Italy, as well as the 1.28 2013 ECB
outlook, as well as the failed attempt to break 1.315 yesterday and took a dive
from noon on. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Magic Carpet stalling</i>.
Oil is down 2%, Gold back to 1700 (+0.7%) and the rest trailing sideways.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Credit indices still seem to attempt taking
out new lows for the year (Main 112 in March, today 115 before bounce back;
Financials hitting 146 past the Oct 153 point; Cross low 462 mid Sep, 468
today).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Highs were respectively 208 & 184 in Nov 2011 and then May 2012 in the Main,
355 & 309 for Financials and 842 & 753 for the Crossover. So we’ve come
some way here, too.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Strong start in Risk to take out
new 2012 highs in Equities and trying to retrace near 2012 Credit lows, too. Core
EGBs cool. Bunga Square’s rug pulling scuttled all that easy living by noon,
weighting on the Periphery and boosting Core EGBs. ECB gloomy. Equity – bond divergence
not a flyer yet, though… US sideways and Risk Watchers back to scanning
European politics. EUR falling off the carpet.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Periphery. Fiscal Cliff. Apple.
Etc. Ok, en route for tomorrow’s NFP (fcst +86k after +171k) with Unemployment
expected to remain stable at 7.9%. Need to check Household employment and
government jobs, the late engines for the improved situation. Michigan Confidence
fcst 82 after 82.7.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2512/2473, DAX 7274/7140, CAC 3454/3434, MIB 15561/15210, IBEX 7811/7562.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13162/13149/12997, S&P 1418/1411/1386, NASDAQ 3012/3022/2988 with AAPL at
605/624/601.</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.292, 100d 1.273 & 200d
1.279. Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,29% (-5);
Luxembourg 1,39% (-6); Netherlands 1,53% (-3); Finland 1,54% (-4); EU 1,59%
(-5); Swaps 1,59% (-4), Austria 1,72% (-1); EIB 1,75% (-5); EFSF 1,87% (-6);
France 1,99% (unch); Belgium 2,12% (-1); Italy 4,58% (+13); Spain 5,46% (+8).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 10bp (-1);
Netherlands 24bp (+2); Finland 25bp (+1); EU 30bp (unch); Swaps 30bp (+1);
Austria 43bp (+4); EIB 46bp (unch); EFSF 58bp (-1); France 70bp (+5); Belgium
83bp (+4); Italy 329bp (+18); Spain 417bp (+13).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 44bp (-1,0); 5-10
YRS 81bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 67bp (+3,0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,051% (-4,6) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,30% (-6).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main -1 to 117 (-0,8% tighter); Financials
-2 to 151 (-1,3% tighter); Cross -7 to 475 (-1,5% tighter).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2605 / +0,6% (from 2589)
with S&P minis at 1411 (+0,7% from 1401, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 16,5 after 17,2 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 85,9/107,0 (WTI/Brent) from 87,9/109,0
(-2,3%/-1,9%). Gold at 1700 after 1687 (+0,8%). Copper at 364 from 365 (-0,3%).
CRB at EU COB 298,0 from 297,0 (+0,3%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">BDIY sliding back through the 1000-mark,
down 3% to 990 (down over 10% in one week).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Xmas
shipping really, really over? When will come the excuse of the upcoming Chinese
New Year (10 Feb 2013).</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,297 from 1,307</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">guesstimate</i>:
2023s up 50 ticks to 39 (14.75%) and 2042s unchanged at 30.50 (11.85%). Highs
were Monday with 39% high (14.75% yield) for the 2023s and 30.75% (11.77%) for
2042s. Buy-back price proposal: 38.1-40.1% & 30.2-32.2%</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Looking forward to new week: German Exports
on Mon (somebody has to grow!), ZEW Sentiment on Tue, especially flash PMI on
Fri 14.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not much pencilled in in exciting
government supply, mostly bills. Some Periphery bonds next Thu.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Tue 11 ZEW Sentiment, Wed 12 IP; Fri
flash PMI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Thu Factory Orders fcst +1% MoM sa /
-5.6% YoY nsa (fro -33% / -4.7%); Friday Industrial Production fcst flat /
-1.5% from last -1.8% MoM/-1.2% YoY; Mon 10 Exports, Tue 11 ZEW Sentiment; Wed
12 CPI; Fri 14 flash PMI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Thu Q3 unemployment fcst 10% after
9.7%; Mon 10 Biz Sentiment, IP, Wed 12 CPI, Fri flash PMI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Mon 10 IP, Wed 12 final Q3 GDP; Thu
13 CPI; Fri 14 Government Debt</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Wed 12 Housing transactions; Thu 13
CPI, Fri 14 House Prices</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Fri NFP</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Last
night I hold Aladdin's lamp / So I wished that I could stay / Before the thing
could answer me / Well, someone came and took the lamp away.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/UtkP5gTX6Hc" target="_blank">More recent version, better sound. Probablyless illicit substances, too…</a></span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/WwLdyIdY6U8" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
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<![endif]-->A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-10820392539966211522012-12-05T17:56:00.001+01:002012-12-05T18:01:57.425+01:0005 Dec 2012 – “ Furry Happy Monsters ” (R.E.M., 1999)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">05 Dec 2012 – “ Furry Happy Monsters ” (R.E.M., 1999)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/aoc8_aJLpes" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Lather.
Rinse. Repeat. Over and over. </span></i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Europe doing about fine on
its own and with an urge to test higher risk levels, in absence of negative news.
Spanish BONOs feeling sad… US look more fickle. Is the fruit getting bad? Question
of Muppets getting nervous out of boredom, or what?</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"Furry Happy Monsters" (Bunds
1,35% -4; Spain 5,38% +15; Stoxx 2589 +0,1%; EUR 1,307 -10) </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Lather.
Rinse. Repeat.</span></i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> US had a weaker close, this time, on FCDRE,
but in measured manner (less than -0.2%). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Yawn!</i>
Markets have limited any possible sweat by simply moving in the tightest of
ranges around closing levels.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">China HSBC Services PMI slipped to 52.1 (prior
53.5) on soft new orders, but that went under as some stimulus hopes were seeded
on “Urbanization Development”, which sent Chinese stocks ripping (CSI +3.60%,
Shanghai back over that fatal 2000-level).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Asia mostly positive on the back of China, but
having outperformed the latter lately, there wasn’t much to piggy-back on.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Risk On</i> start with equities up nearly 1%, Credit snapping 2.5%
tighter (-3/4 points).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR firmer on the 31-handle at 1.312.
Commodities following sluggishly up half a percentage point, but just so. Odd
not to see Copper ripping, following the China lead.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs surprisingly stable, being about 1bp
softer, in order to mark the <i>ROn </i>movement out there, but quite decorrelated. Spain a touch
softer, ahead of the auction.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1.40% (+1), UST 1.62% (+2).OBL 0.42%
(+1). Schätze flat at +0.015%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Final Service PMI data mixed with the
EZ-wide number revised higher to 46.7 from flash 45.8 and prior (Composite
hence 46.5 from 45.7 flash and prior 48.4), which overshadows the fact that
Germany has been doing fine (Services 49.7, flash 48, prior), while France’s
and Italy’s numbers were revised lower from first estimates to respectively 45.8 (flash 46.1, prior
44.6) and 44.6 (flash 46, prior).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish Industrial Output faring better
than expected, “solely” down -3.3% YoY (wda). Forecast had been -6.4% after
-7%, revised even lower to -7.5%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Minimum service on the Spanish auction,
totalling only EUR 4.25bn (target was EUR 4.5bn) with EUR 2.1bn sold in 3.75%
Oct 2015 at 3.39% (COB 3.415%), EUR 1bn in 4.60% Jul 2019 at 4.67% (COB 4.610%)
and EUR 1.1bn in the “on-the-run” 10 YRS 5.85% Jan 2022 at 5.29% (COB 5.235%).
Bid to covers alright – on paper, as skewed to the allocations. Tails of 22cts
(7bp) in 3s, 33cts (6bp) in the 7-year and 23cts (3bp) in 10s. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Less than impressive. </i>Ok, levels about /
near the lowest in ages. Yada yada yada…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Trading already 5 bp wider before the
auction, the results added 4bp right away.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The additional EUR 4bn in Schätze were sold
at -0.01% (COB 0.015%, last -0.02% 2 weeks ago, +0.07% mid-Oct), of which some
EUR 700 were retained for market intervention. Already boosted by the Spanish
results, this took Schätze back into negative territory for good.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">We will see a rather modestly-sized EUR 4bn
French auction tomorrow for the 4.25% Oct 2018 (COB 1.015%), 3.75% Oct 2019 (COB
1.285%) and 2.75% Oct 2027 (COB 2.565%) at historic lows.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">While not qualifying as supply as such the
ESM issued EUR 39.5bn today to back the FROB / Spanish bank bail-out (EUR 12bn
3 YRS FRN, EUR 12bn 2 YRS FRN, EUR 6.5bn 18m FRN, EUR 6.5bn 10m bills and
finally EYR 2.5bn 2m bills, the last tranche for the SAREB, the Spanish bad
bank). So that's on track.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Lesser active, albeit well-mixed New Issue
activity with German agency L-Bank in for EUR 1bn 5 YRS at MS -7, French
retailer Auchan with EUR 750m 10 YRS at MS +78 and Generali with a
well-received EUR 1.25bn 30nc10 Tier 2 deal at 7.75%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Note the chunky Intel 4-trancher in USD
yesterday (USD 3bn 5s at T+75, USD 1.5bn 10s at +115, USD 750m in 20s at +130
and 30s at +150).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EZ Retail Sales a huge miss, declining 3.6% YoY (fcst -0.8% after 0.8%, revised double down to -1.6%). MoM
-1.2%, fcst -0.2% after rev. -0.6%. So, no, it’s definitively not the European
consumer who’ll save the day… So, who will, then? <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">German Mittelstand: All hopes are on you!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not that these figures would have any major
impact, as the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROn</i> was already
divided by 2 on the Spanish auction disappointment (Equities +0.5%, Bunds -2 to
1.37%, Spain
+10 to 5.33%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Risk moving back to closing levels, having
just traded out the Sep intra-day high at 2608 to hit 2610 in
EStoxx. For chart historians: 2611 remains the 2012 intraday high of 16 Mar,
broken to the downside in Aug 2011. 3068 remains the post-Lehman high of Feb
2011).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Midday levels confirming Risk levelling out
– ahead of what US players might feel of all of this, or in advance dodging of
FCDRE. Equities still up 0.3% and Credit 1-2 ticks tighter.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,37% (-2), OBLs 0,39% (-3), BKOs
-0,002% (-1,7). UST 1,60%, unchanged to EU closing levels. Spain slammed
on bad auction results. Italy
taken along.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs matching Bunds across the spectrum
with France
trying to take out the 2%-mark in 10 YRS.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,90% (+8), 10s at 5,35% (+12).
2-10 YRS spread 245bp (+4).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,78% (+2), 10s at 4,46% (+4).
2-10 YRS spread 267bp (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">ADP figures showing 118k jobs (fcst 125k
after rev. 157k).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US cash open exactly in line with Europe at
+0.3%, although one would note the divergence between UST at 1.59 (-1) and EGBs
at -3 to -4 with Bunds down to level left after the French downgrade on 20 Nov, which triggered the upside correction in EGB yields.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Further US figures on the positive side,
too. Q3 Productivity rising 2.9% (fcst 2.8% after 1.9%), Labour Costs low,
though, falling 1.9% (fcst -1% after -0.1%). Factory Orders beating flat
estimates at +0.8% (from rev. +4.5%), as was Non Mfg ISM ay 54.7 (fcst 53.5
after 54.2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Still, $25/4%-plus slide in Apple shares
weighting on the mood (but the seedless Dow). NASDAQ back through 200d average
and S&P on the 1400-line.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European equities retreating for good to
yesterday’s closing levels, but with not much of follow-up harm (for the
moment), giving EGBs additional 1-2 basis points.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain looking sad with 10s out by 15bp on
the day and the auction well under water (2015 at 3.525% from auction 3.415%,
2019 at 4.745% from 4.67% and those 2022s at 5.38% from 5.29%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,34% (-5), OBLs at 0,36%
(-5) and BKOs -0,005% (-2). UST at 1,58% (-2) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">France closing on historic levels with 10s
at 1.99%, 5 YRS at 0.71% and 2s at 0.10%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,91% (+9), 10s at 5,38%
(+15). 2-10 YRS spread 247bp (+6). Italian 2s at 1,77% (+1), 10s at 4,45% (+3).
2-10 YRS spread 267bp (+1). </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds balancing out, 2023s down to
38% (from 38.75%), 2042s up to 30.50% (from 30.25%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR couldn’t hold its 1.3125 late morning
levels with equities trailing lower and ends at 1.307. Commodities listless
with Oil down 0.5% and Gold, too, but symbolically through the 1700-mark.
Copper flat (China hopes?).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Over and over. </i>Europe doing about fine on
its own and with an urge to test higher risk levels, in absence of negative news.
Spanish BONOs feeling sad… US look more fickle. Is the fruit getting bad? Question
of Muppets getting nervous out of boredom, or what?</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: More of the same. Lather, Rinse,
Repeat. Stand still. Fiscal Cliff Discussion Risk Event still live. Anybody’s
budget maths. Super Mario-show, but rate cut probably unnecessary at this stage
of the normalization of the monetary transmission.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EZ Q3 GDP flash was -0.1 QoQ / -0.6% YoY,
Consumption. German Factory Orders fcst +1% MoM sa / -5.6% YoY nsa (fro -33% /
-4.7%). US Claims fcst +380k after +393k.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European
50 & 100d averages: EStoxx 2510/2470, DAX 7271/7132, CAC 3451/3430, MIB
15550/15186, IBEX 7811/7549.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US
50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU 13173/13144/12997, S&P 1420/1411/1385,
NASDAQ 3017/3021/2988 with AAPL at 608/625/601. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.291, 100d 1.273& 200d 1.279.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at
1.273& 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,34% (-5);
Luxembourg 1,45% (-4); Netherlands 1,56% (-4); Finland 1,58% (-5); Swaps 1,63%
(-5); EU 1,64% (-5), Austria 1,73% (-3); EIB 1,80% (-6); EFSF 1,93% (-5);
France 1,99% (-4); Belgium 2,13% (-2); Italy 4,45% (+3); Spain 5,38% (+15).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 11bp (+1);
Netherlands 22bp (+1); Finland 24bp (unch); Swaps 29bp (unch); EU 30bp (unch);
Austria 39bp (+2); EIB 46bp (-1); EFSF 59bp (unch); France 65bp (+1); Belgium
79bp (+3); Italy 311bp (+8); Spain 404bp (+20).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 45bp (-1,0); 5-10
YRS 81bp (-1,0) 10-30 YRS 64bp (+1,0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,005% (-2) and 5
YRS OBLs 0,36% (-5).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main -2 to 118 (-1,7% tighter); Financials
unchanged at 153; Cross -5 to 482 (-1,0% tighter).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2589 / +0,1% (from 2587)
with S&P minis at 1401 (-0,3% from 1405, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 17,2 after 16,9 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 87,9/109,0 (WTI/Brent) from 88,4/109,6
(-0,6%/-0,6%). Gold at 1687 after 1696 (-0,5%). Copper unchanged at 365. CRB at
EU COB 297,0 from 300,0 (-1,0%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">BDIY slide accelerating further with 32 ticks
(3%) down to 1022. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Xmas shipping really,
really over?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,307 from 1,308</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">guesstimate</i>:
Greek bonds sliding to 38.00% (15.11%) from <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>38.75% (14.83% yield) for the 2023s, but
ticking back up to 30.50% (11.83%) after 30.25% (yield 11.92%) in 2042s.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Highs were on Monday with 39% high (14.75%
yield) for the 2023s and 30.75% (11.77%) for 2042s.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Factory Orders in Germany on Thu. Fri NFP
in the US.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Thursday ECB& BOE (FED on 12 Dec)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Looking forward to new week: German Exports
on Mon (somebody has to grow!), ZEW Sentiment on Tue, especially flash PMI on
Fri 14.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: EZ Q3 GDP flash was -0.1 QoQ / -0.6%
YoY, Consumption; Tue 11 ZEW Sentiment, Wed 12 IP; Fri flash PMI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Thu Factory Orders fcst +1% MoM sa /
-5.6% YoY nsa (fro -33% / -4.7%); Friday Industrial Production fcst flat /
-1.5% from last -1.8% MoM/-1.2% YoY; Mon 10 Exports, Tue 11 ZEW Sentiment; Wed
12 CPI; Fri 14 flash PMI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Thu Q3 unemployment fcst 10% after
9.7%; Mon 10 Biz Sentiment, IP, Wed 12 CPI, Fri flash PMI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Mon 10 IP, Wed 12 final Q3 GDP; Thu
13 CPI; Fri 14 Government Debt</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Wed 12 Housing transactions; Thu 13
CPI, Fri 14 House Prices</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Thu Claims fcst +380k after +393k; Fri
NFP</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Who
can’t but love the Muppets? And R.E.M. had cool songs, too. Good Crossover.
Really. Cute.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/aoc8_aJLpes" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
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A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-88657735211156422322012-12-04T18:02:00.001+01:002012-12-04T18:25:14.681+01:0004 Dec 2012 – “ 11 O'Clock Tick Tock ” (U2, 1980)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">04 Dec 2012 – “ 11 O'Clock Tick Tock ” (U2, 1980)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/ajhOjFwuddQ" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Lather. Rinse. Repeat. Europe doing about
fine on its own and with an urge to test higher risk levels, in absence of
negative news. US more fickle on FCDRE. If this goes on until year-end… If it
wasn’t for a bit of FCDRE… Tick. By. Tick. Movements. Equities high. Soft Core
closing on historic lows.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"11 O’Clock Tick Tock " (Bunds
1,39% -2; Spain 5,23% -1; Stoxx 2587 +0,3%; EUR 1,308 +20)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Just more of the same overnight. US had a
weaker close, this time, on FCDRE, but in measured manner (-0.4%), taking us
back to the levels where the index reshuffling started on Friday and then down
0.3% in the close.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Asian risk trailed the US, down a quarter with, tataa, the notable
exception of China,
closing up 1%, but after having hit new lows (Shanghai down to 1950, before
rebounding 1.5% in the afternoon session).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The RBA graced the world with a quarter
point cut to 3% (its post-Lehman low) on, <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">duh!</i>,
a weaker global outlook.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">In for another probably quieter session
until the US
come in: Open about in line with yesterday. Equities flat to the tick compared
to Monday’s close. EGBs again a tick better bid with Bunds paring yesterday’s
afternoon softer patch and quoted 1.39% (-2) with UST 1.61% (-2). Hard Core in
line. Soft Core 1bp firmer and Periphery flat to a tick better. Curves
unchanged. Credit 1-2 ticks wider.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR unchanged. Commodities about 0.5% off
with Gold back down above the 1700-handle.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">As for yesterday’s PMI data, Spanish
unemployment numbers were less bleak than expected +90k with 74k added (from
prior +128k).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Again bills on today’s menu: EUR 1bn of
Belgian bills in 3m at -0.029% and 6m at -0.01% (from -0.004% and +0.021%) and the
EFSF for EUR 1.4bn 3m at -0.047% (from -0.029%). Note that Belgian bills come
now inside France in 3m (yesterday -0.022% and -0.008%), but then again, France
is a weekly visitor…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not a huge week in terms of govie supply:
The Spanish auction (exceptionally held tomorrow with Thursday a holiday in
Spain) will be for up to EUR 4.5bn in 3.75% Oct 2015 (COB 3.415%),4.60% Jul 2019
(COB 4.610%) and the “on-the-run” 10 YRS 5.85% Jan 2022 (COB 5.235%). We’ll have
as well additional EUR 4bn in Schätze (COB 0.015%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Thursday will see a rather modestly-sized
EUR 4bn French auction for the 4.25% Oct 2018, 3.75% Oct 2019 and 2.75% Oct 2027
OATs.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Again some good and diversified New Issues
supply with Rio Tinto (in longer duration than Xstrata 2 weeks ago) raising EUR
750m May 2020 at MS+80, next to EUR 500m 12 YRS at MS +110 (and GBP 500m 2029
at G +165), Deutsche Post with another 2-trancher of EUR 300m 8 YRS at MS +60
and EUR 700m 12 YRS at MS +100. Further German issuers with Metro EUR 500m May 2018 at MS +140 (Not bad for a
BBB- rating) and, on the other end of the credit spectrum, Land Hessen with a
EUR 350m increase of a June 2020 line at MS +3. Unicredit raised with EUR 750m
5 YRS senior debt at MS +255. Finally, there was a late-closing deal yesterday
for a Spnaish region with Junta de Castilla y Leon closing EUR 200m 2 YRS at a
yield of 5.500% (about MS +508).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EZ PPI etching up 0.1% MoM in Oct (fcst
flat after +0.2%), +2.6% YoY (fcst +2.5% after +2.7%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No follow-up weakness, hence some <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROn</i>. Equities climbing 0.75% in a quiet
market. EGBs moving back to unchanged. Periphery tightening a tick or two.
Credit back a tick or two tighter. Bit of an upside test in the EUR with a
1.3085 high. Commodities flattish to a tick firmer.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek rocket stalling at yesterday’s
prices.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">It’s all a story of a tick - or two. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tick. Two. Tick. Tock. Already 11’ o clock???</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Lunchtime levels, as mentioned.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,41% (unch), OBLs 0,43% (unch), BKOs
0,015% (-0,7). UST 1,63% (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s 2,81% (+2), 10s 5,23% (-1). 2-10
YRS spread 242bp (-2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s 1,76% (-1), 10s at 4,41% (-3).
2-10 YRS spread 265bp (-3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Banking Supervision talks once more put on
the longue table. SMP obviously nothing for immediate use. Lack of “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">clear and immediate danger</i>” obviously a
brake on going forward. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tick. Tick. Tock.
Tock</i>. To be revisited on 12 Dec, but realistically a 2013 subject (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">if we make it past the Mayan End of The
World</i>)(11 o’clock).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Yet again Franco-German divergences…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">And Juncker, who wants to ditch his
Head of Eurogroup job… Too bad. Someone has to do it. French and Germans are too oppressing
in that position and it would be nice to have someone more charismatic than HvR,
as the uninteresting consensus choice <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">par
excellence</i>, and someone that does NOT come from the South.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">What can we get out of Finland (although
too stern) and best of all out of the Netherlands? Too bad Wim Duisenberg is
gone, thinking of it.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No US figures to kick-start the
afternoon, but with a bit of softness spreading after lunch. US cash open close
to home, leaving European Risk outperforming by about 0.5% to the US.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">UST back to 1.61% (-2), as most EGBs,
including the Periphery.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">juuuuuuust</i>
made it slightly over the 31-hande. To have it flashed. Matter of principle.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Gold hit below the 17-handle (-1%), as is
Oil at American open (-1.5%). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">On EUR
strength???</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">With US equities eventually soon in
slightly positive territory, markets chilled out rapidly (US flat, Europe +0.5%. Bonds 1 to 2bp tighter).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Tick.
Tock.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Sole data set of the day with the NY ISM at
52.5 after 45.9 (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Sandy-ed</i>) in Oct.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Yawning the rest of the afternoon with
ticking sounds in my head.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Aaaand</span></i><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">….
finally hitting F9 for yet another rather quiet session (to say the least).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds and EGBs all a tick firmer. Soft Core
closing on historic lows.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European equities about a quarter positive.
Credit about flat. EUR a tick firmer. Oil and Gold 1% softer.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain not moving much ahead of tomorrow’s auction.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds 0.25% lower in price than yesterday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,39% (-2), OBLs at 0,42%
(-2) and BKOs 0,015% (-0,7). UST at 1,60% (-3) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,82% (+3), 10s at 5,23% (-1).
2-10 YRS spread 241bp (-3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,76% (-1), 10s at 4,42%
(-2). 2-10 YRS spread 266bp (-2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Lather. Rinse. Repeat.</i> Europe
doing about fine on its own and with an urge to test higher risk levels, in
absence of negative news. US more fickle on FCDRE. If this goes on until
year-end…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: More of the same. Lather, Rinse,
Repeat. Stand still. Fiscal Cliff Discussion Risk Event still live. Spain maths on
budget. Italian maths, French… Bah… etc. etc. etc. Need to see whether Final
Service PMIs confirm yesterday picture (Rebound from lowest levels : Half
full glass, rebound ; half empty, low base). Spanish auction at late
tightest levels.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EZ Composite 45.8 and Services 45.7. EZ
Retail Sales fcst -0.2% MoM. German Services PMI 48, France 46.1. Final US Productivity
for Q3 (fcst 2.8% after 1.9%), ADP +125k after 158k, Factory Orders for Oct
(fcst flat after +4.8%), Non-Mfg Composite ISM (fcst +53.5 after 54.2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2510/2466, DAX 7270/7123, CAC 3449/3426, MIB 15548/15162, IBEX 7816/7536.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13186/13141/12996, S&P 1421/1410/1385, NASDAQ 3020/3020/2987 with AAPL at
611/625/601.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.291, 100d 1.271& 200d 1.279.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at
1.273& 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,39% (-2);
Luxembourg 1,49% (-2); Netherlands 1,60% (-3); Finland 1,63% (-2); Swaps 1,68%
(-2); EU 1,69% (-3), Austria 1,76% (unch); EIB 1,86% (-2); EFSF 1,98% (-3);
France 2,03% (-2); Belgium 2,15% (-1); Italy 4,42% (-2); Spain 5,23% (-1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 10bp (unch);
Netherlands 21bp (-1); Finland 24bp (unch); Swaps 29bp (unch); EU 30bp (-1);
Austria 37bp (+2); EIB 47bp (unch); EFSF 59bp (-1); France 64bp (unch); Belgium
76bp (+1); Italy 303bp (unch); Spain 384bp (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 46bp (unch); 5-10
YRS 82bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 63bp (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,015% (-0,7) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,42% (-2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main unchanged at 120; Financials -2 to 153
(-1,3% tighter); Cross +1 to 487 (0,2% wider).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2587 / +0,3% (from 2580)
with S&P minis at 1405 (-0,6% from 1414, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 16,9 after 16,3 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 88,4/109,6 (WTI/Brent) from 89,1/111,0
(-0,8%/-1,2%). Gold at 1696 after 1715 (-1,1%). Copper at 365 from 363 (+0,6%).
CRB at EU COB 300,0 from 299,0 (+0,3%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">BDIY accelerating down again: today 1054
after 1077 (-2.1%). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Xmas shipping already
over?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,308 from 1,306</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">guesstimate</i>:
Greek bonds balancing out at 38.75% (14.83% yield) after 39% (14.75% yield) for
the 2023s and 30.25% (yield 11.92%) after 30.75% (11.77%) for 2042s. Ticking a
little lower. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Hey, they’re still all-time
high... Euh... Somehow. Obviously, that is a post-PSI high…</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Hmm…Only bits and pieces on the macro
front.Service PMIs on Wednesday Industrial output in Spain on Wed. Factory
Orders in Germany on Thu. Fri NFP in the US.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Thursday ECB& BOE (FED on 12 Dec)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Additional EUR 4bn German 2 YRS on
Wednesday. Spain will hold an auction of up to EUR 4.5bn in 3, 7 and (short) 10
YRS on Wednesday as well (as Thursday will be closed), while France will supply
its monthly OAT auction on Thursday, albeit for only up to EUR 4bn and without
10 YRS (2018, 2019 & 2027).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Wed Final Comp PMI, Retail Sales; Thu
EZ GDP and ECB</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Wed Final Serv PMI; Thu Factory Orders
last -3.3 MoM, Friday Industrial Production last -1.8% MoM/-1.2% YoY</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Wed Final Serv PMI; Thu Q3 unemployment</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Wed Final Serv PMI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Wed Industrial Output (last 7% wda).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Wed Factory Orders, Productivity and
Labour Costs; Thu Claims; Fri NFP</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">We
thought that we had the answers</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">It
was the questions we had wrong</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">(Man,
I can’t remember the last time I had seen The Edge’s hairline before screening
this clip…)(And that Gibson Explorer looks cool, too. After all…)</span></i></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/ajhOjFwuddQ" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a></span><br />
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">For even younger looking U2</span></i></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IS8Ze8Ennho&t=1m30s" target="_blank">http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IS8Ze8Ennho&t=1m30s </a></span></i></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-54459000591073754562012-12-03T17:49:00.002+01:002012-12-03T17:49:50.951+01:0003 Dec 2012 – “ Out Of Touch ” (Hall & Oates, 1984)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="color: red; line-height: 115%;">03 Dec 2012 – “ Out Of Touch ” (Hall & Oates, 1984)</span></b></span></span></div>
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span></span></span></span>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/ig0NVMVdmoA" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Fiscal Cliff Discussion Risk Event still very
much alive. Spain maths on budget. Italian maths, French… Bah… Still feels like
things are a bit out of touch with reality here (equities vs. bonds). And that
Greek buy-back looks really, really<span>
</span>generous. Outwordly. Then again, best way to get rid of private
ownership. After the OMT, the OPM… Obviously, other people’s money. PMI paint a
slightly less bleak picture, but on rock bottom levels.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">"Out Of Touch" (Bunds 1,41% +3; Spain
5,24% -6; Stoxx 2580 unch; EUR 1,306 +50)</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Fiscal
Ping-Pong, Part IV on Friday evening, but eventually everyone remained cool and
US indices closed about flat with a last hour +0.5% spike and then a -0.25%
correction into the close on index rebalancing. Fiscal Cliff Discussion Risk
Event (FCDRE) live over the weekend with both parties trading blows and menaces.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Me</span><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">rkel quite realistic that some kind of haircut on Greece will
materialize at some stage in time. Obviously, the can-kicking exercise will end
up with the totality of the Greek debt held by the official sector and the idea
seems to be to bury or postpone any reckoning to whenever it suits all parties
(like not before elections, for instance).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">ESM
& EFSF rating taken down to Aa1 by Moody’s, after the latest move on
France, but this is hardly a surprise.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">The
question of an equally lenient treatment of Ireland
and Portugal, in line with
the latest conditions reached on supporting Greece, remains open at this stage.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Asian
close pretty even, but for China… in red. <i>Talk
about a change, here… </i>Charts look terrible.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Not
much around at open.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Opening
levels close to home: Equities about unchanged to a tick firmer (matching the
slightly better US close), but with EGBs better bid. Bunds 1.36% (-2) / UST
1.61%. Periphery unchanged with Spain
at 5.30% in 10s. Credit a tick better, too.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">EUR
over the 30-handle at 1.303 with Commodities up half a point.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Odd.
Everything is shining. <i>Rise and Shine!</i></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Chewing
on the </span><a href="http://www.pdma.gr/attachments/article/248/Press%20Release%20-%20December%2003.pdf" target="_blank"><b><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Greekbuy-back proposal</span></b></a><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">,
which ended up being an exchange into EFSF 6m bills (up to EUR 10bn, 2023 price
range 38.1-40.1% of par, 15.095% - 14.389% in yield, value 17 Dec, 2042
30.2-32.2% in price, 11.951% - 11.372 in
yield). Ok. No cash, but well over Friday’s closing levels of 16%, respectively
12.5% in yield (bid). Leading to an instant jump in Greek bonds.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Final
Manufacturing PMIs for November with the EZ confirming flash estimates of 46.2
(after 45.4 in Oct). Output
revised higher to 46.1 (after 44.8 flash and 45 in
Oct) and New Exports at 46.4 (after 45.9 flash and 45.3 prior). German numbers
confirming flash estimates of 46.8 from 46, but France
slipping to 44.5 (flash 44.7 after 43.7), as for Italy at 45.1 (after 45.5). Spain
doing better at 45.3 after 43.5</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Bills-only
day: Germany with EUR 3bn 6m at -0.0168% (after -0.012%), Dutch combined about
EUR 2.4bn of 3 and 6m at -0.34% and -0.016% (after -0.029% and -0.02%), France
with short of EUR 6.8bn in 3m at -0.022%, 6m at -0.008% and 12m at +0.016
(after last week-0.020%, -0.008%, +0.019%).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Belgian
and EFSF bills tomorrow.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Not
a huge week in terms of govie supply: The Spanish auction (exceptionally on
Wed) will be for up to EUR 4.5bn in 2015, 2019 and 2022s. On Wed as well EUR
4bn Schätze out of Germany. Thursday will see a rather modest EUR 4bn French auction
for 2018, 2019 and 2027 OATs.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Good
<i>Risk On </i>developing in the course of the late morning and during lunchtime.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Equities
up a good 0.75%. Credit snapping tighter by 3% (-4- ticks). Hard Core EGBs
slammed, Soft Core soft, Periphery on the Ramp and revisiting Thursday’s late
morning tightest levels in 10 YRS (before snap-back) at 4.45% and 5.15%</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Bunds
1,42% (+4), OBLs at 0,44% (+4) and BKOs 0,025% (+1,7). UST at 1,64% (+3) COB.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Spanish
2s at 2,79% (-4), 10s at 5,17% (-13). 2-10 YRS spread 237bp (-10).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Italian
2s at 1,77% (-3), 10s at 4,39% (-10). 2-10 YRS spread 263bp (-6).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">Greek
bonds going through the roof to hit the buy-back / exchange levels (Obviously
other people’s money… These bonds closed – on a price basis – about 34.3% and
25.7% on Friday 23 Nov and about 35.60% and 28.50% last Friday. Rather the bid
side (then), so put the offer 1 point higher, but these prices really seem
generous. And somehow 5% above the levels 10 days ago. EUR 5bn difference. No
small change…. Obviously, other people’s money… <i>After the OMT, the OPM…</i></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Final US PMI at 52.8 (from 52.4). ISM
figures were a miss at 49.5 for Manufacturing and 52.5 for Prices Paid (fcst
51.4 after 51.7 and 53.3 after 55). Put the blame on Sandy. Construction
Spending, on the other hand, rose 1.4% in Oct (fcst +0.5% after rev. +0.6%),
confirming the latest batch of healthy housing figures.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">US cash open rather less eventful.
Initially firmer, but holding near / just above Friday’s levels. <i>FCDRE</i>…</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Putting a bit of a dampener on European risk
appetite, too.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Europe running out of steam with the US
flashing red. But, but, but… It felt so good this morning, still.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Bah.. Equities closing barely changed, but
some damage done to EGBs, still reeling from any further attempt to get debt mutualisation
through the back-door. Credit still squeezing, 2.5-3% tighter.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,41% (+3), OBLs at 0,43%
(+3) and BKOs 0,022% (+1,5). UST at 1,63% (+2) COB.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Periphery doing well, but, as for the rest
of Risk, off late morning tightest levels.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Greek bonds went on the ramp, closing at
39% (14.75% yield) for the 2023s and 30.75% (11.77%) for 2042s, down 125bp,
respectively 75bp from last Friday.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,80% (-3), 10s at 5,24%
(-6). 2-10 YRS spread 244bp (-3). Italian 2s at 1,77% (-3), 10s at 4,44% (-5).
2-10 YRS spread 267bp (-2).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EUR 1.306, healthy. Commodities about
unchanged to a little tick better.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Fiscal Cliff Discussion Risk
Event still very much alive. Spain maths on budget. Italian maths, French… Bah…
Still feels like things are a bit out of touch with reality here (equities vs.
bonds). And that Greek buy-back looks really, really<span> </span>generous. Outwordly. Then again, best way to
get rid of private ownership. After the OMT, the OPM… Obviously, other people’s
money. PMI paint a slightly less bleak picture, but on rock bottom levels.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Outlook: More of the same. Fiscal Cliff
Discussion Risk Event still live. Spain maths on budget. Italian maths, French…
Bah… Things are a bit out of touch with reality, here (equities vs. bonds).
Spanish unemployment tomorrow. Service PMIs on Wed.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2509/2463, DAX 7270/7115, CAC 3448/3422, MIB 15548/15140, IBEX 7821/7522.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13199/13137/12995, S&P 1422/1409/1385, NASDAQ 3024/3019/2987 with AAPL at
613/625/600.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.291, 100d 1.271 & 200d
1.279. Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at
1.273& 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).Jul 2012 to Sep rebound levels: 1.231 –
1.247 – 1.261 – 1.274 – 1.291 -1.317 .</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">New Issues starting the week mainly with
EUR 1.25bn 5 YRS Pfandbrieve (Belgian covered bonds) for KBC at MS +30
(compared to Belfius’ inaugural deal 2 weeks ago at MS +45, now trading about
MS +30). Some taps with Unicredit increasing a 10 YRS LT2 by EUR 250m at MS
+498 and French unemployment agency UNEDIC adding EUR 300m to its April 207 benchmark
at OAT +17 (about MS +5).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,41% (+3);
Luxembourg 1,51% (+2); Netherlands 1,63% (+2); Finland 1,65% (+3); Swaps 1,70%
(+3); EU 1,72% (+2), Austria 1,76% (+2); EIB 1,88% (+2); EFSF 2,01% (+2);
France 2,05% (+1); Belgium 2,16% (+0); Italy 4,44% (-5); Spain 5,24% (-6).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 10bp (-1);
Netherlands 22bp (-1); Finland 24bp (unch); Swaps 29bp (unch); EU 31bp (-1);
Austria 35bp (-1); EIB 47bp (-1); EFSF 60bp (-1); France 64bp (-2); Belgium
75bp (-3); Italy 303bp (-8); Spain 383bp (-9).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 46bp (+1,0); 5-10
YRS 81bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 63bp (unch).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,022% (+1,5) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,43% (+3).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Main -3 to 120 (-2,4% tighter); Financials
-5 to 155 (-3,1% tighter); Cross -11 to 486 (-2,2% tighter).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2580 / +0,0% (from 2580)
with S&P minis at 1414 (+0,1% from 1412, at European close).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 16,3 after 15,8 yesterday same
time.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Oil 89,1/111,0 (WTI/Brent) from 88,5/110,9
(+0,7%/+0,1%). Gold at 1715 after 1712 (+0,2%). Copper at 363 from 361 (+0,6%).
CRB at EU COB 299,0 from 299,0 (+0,0%).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">BDIY, down 9 to 1077.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,306 from 1,301</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Greek <i>guesstimate</i>:
<i>Bouh!</i> Greek bonds went on the ramp,
closing at 39% (14.75% yield) for the 2023s and 30.75% (11.77%) for 2042s, down
125bp, respectively 75bp from last Friday. <i>Thanks
for the wrapping, guys!</i></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Hmm… Only bits and pieces on the macro
front. Service PMIs on Wednesday Industrial output in Spain on Wed. Factory
Orders in Germany on Thu. Fri NFP in the US.</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Thursday ECB& BOE (FED on 12 Dec)</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">The start of next week remains full of bills
(Belgium, EFSF on Tue) and see additional EUR 4bn German 2 YRS on Wednesday.
Spain will hold an auction of up to EUR 4.5bn in 3, 7 and (short) 10 YRS on
Wednesday as well (as Thursday will be closed), while France will supply its
monthly OAT auction on Thursday, albeit for only up to EUR 4bn and without 10
YRS (2018, 2019 & 2027).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span lang="EN-US" style="line-height: 115%;">EC:
Tue PPI fcst +2.5% after +2.7% YoY; Wed Final Comp PMI, Retail Sales; Thu EZ
GDP and ECB</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">GE: Wed Final Serv PMI; Thu Factory Orders
last -3.3 MoM, Friday Industrial Production last -1.8% MoM/-1.2% YoY</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">FR: Wed Final Serv PMI; Thu Q3 unemployment</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Italy: Wed Final Serv PMI</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">Spain: Tue Unemployment; Wed Industrial
Output (last 7% wda).</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 115%;">US: Mon Final PMI, MfG ISM &
Construction Spending; Tue ISM NY; Wed Factory Orders, Productivity and Labour
Costs; Thu Claims; Fri NFP</span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><i><span style="line-height: 115%;">Manic
moves and drowsy dreams/ Or living in the middle between the two extremes</span></i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://youtu.be/ig0NVMVdmoA" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b><span style="line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b><span style="line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: small;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-63939848984841394662012-12-01T13:52:00.000+01:002012-12-01T13:52:14.949+01:00Shuffle Rewind 26-30 Nov " Somewhere Over The Rainbow " ("IZ" Kamakawiwoʻole, 1993)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Shuffle Rewind 26-30 Nov
" Somewhere Over The Rainbow " ("IZ" Kamakawiwo</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">ʻ</span></b><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">ole, 1993)</span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/wZFkXQKCuBc" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">MusicLink</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">This week in review (compared to Fri 23
Nov COB):</span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
on <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">day</b> for related post, on <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">title</b> for song.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">After a week of Awakening to Risk, mainly
the Fiscal Cliff, and then a week lacking Direction, the <a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/11/shuffle-rewind-19-23-nov-only-way-is-up.html" target="_blank"><b>week ending 23 Nov</b></a> was
a strong case for “The Only Way is Up!” with Risk assets just soaring, ending a
3-week cleansing process with weak longs as well as weak shorts stopped out and
volatility crushed back.<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/UtKADQnjQmc" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The Only Way Is Up</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"
(Bunds 1,44% +12; Spain 5,60% -26; Stoxx 2552 +4,8%; EUR 1,296 +260)</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">That strong Risk On week closed on </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/11/23-nov-2012-fly-like-eagle-steve-miller.html" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Friday 23 Nov</span></b></a> <span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">with
markets opening unchanged and staying put, despite better German IFO numbers.
Still, that was followed with yet another light <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROn</i> close. Worries were put aside on Greece (and on the Fiscal Cliff),
As sentiment figures were all for the better. And some Thanksgiving turkeys
made it through the day and went to <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/6a6lAwbE1J4" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fly Like An Eagle</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"
(Bunds 1,44% +1; Spain
5,6% -4; Stoxx 2552 +0,7%; EUR 1,296 +80)</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">. US markets kept
the drive and added a quarter point higher than European COB at +1.3% on the
day. UST unchanged at 1.69%.</span></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">One was hard pressed to find anything
remotely exciting on </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/11/26-nov-2012-sailing-rod-stewart-1975.html" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Monday</span></b></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.
Equities were losing a little shine, which was understandable given the prior
week’s 5% rush (and 14% tightening in Credit). Bonds remained stuck in range. The
Fiscal Cliff started hailing back (in yet rather timid manner, though) and
players were waiting for the final sign-off the latest Greek rescue package.
Yawn! <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/Bpbuqh12oj4" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Sailing</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">" (Bunds 1,41% -3; Spain
5,6% unch; Stoxx 2542 -0,4%; EUR 1,296 unch)</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">. </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/11/27-nov-2012-you-aint-seen-nothing-yet.html" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Tuesday</span></b></a><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> morning saw that Greek thing solved (at least for the
next months), but after an initial <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROn</i>
reaction, markets got stuck. Ok. It’s not that the Greek deal was nothing. But
then again, third strike. Eventually expected, or at least hoped for. Hence,
lack of concrete follow-through. So, now it simply was there. And then what?
What was there to see??? Markets in need of some input, something concrete, something
to feed off, something to see! <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/uA05cULpFmk" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"
(Bunds 1,43% +2; Spain
5,51% -9; Stoxx 2538 -0,2%; EUR 1,293 -30)</span></b><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> Once more, </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/11/28-nov-2012-i-thank-you-zz-top-1979.html" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Wednesday</span></b></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
was a day with not much stuff to chew on Europe’s
own. Had some drifting. EGBs were very strong on (relative) (initial) equity
weakness. Periphery bonds started to glow like the ZZ Top Eliminator. In
absence of any strong lead, one felt the urge to start thanking everyone for
input and support (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Mario, Ben, Angie,
Chrissie… Anyone working on the Fiscal Cliff. Mariano & Mario. Wolfie...</i>),
putting a new paradigm into practice: Nothing will ever be weak again, nothing.
And watch out for FC Ping-Pong! <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">And I
Thank You! </i><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/IqYugOLrDL0" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">I Thank You</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"
(Bunds 1,37% -6; Spain
5,31% -20; Stoxx 2547 +0,4%; EUR 1,293 0)</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">. Had once more US lawmakers timing supportive FC pep talk
around the lows of the US
market. </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/11/29-nov-2012-sea-of-love-honeydrippers.html" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Thursday</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> </span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">simply put
Wednesday into practice: Thanking everyone turning around markets, when they
sink (Good timing on Wed). Nothing to break the barn stomp in Periphery bonds
(but themselves), so people might as well side-step going short into strength. Italy
brilliantly stuffed its primary dealer at a 2-year low, but then, they hadn’t
to bid that aggressively. Core EGBs holding quite steady, given <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROn</i> in Risk and Periphery. Strong, but
expected US GDP revision, meeting some yawns. Given the actual level in Risk,
good numbers are seen as given. Nothing weak, no more, never. Swimming in a Sea
of (Risk) Love. Hard Periphery (especially Spain) slap-back in the afternoon,
though. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/_9-026ZCKR8" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Sea Of Love</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"
(Bunds 1,37% unch; Spain
5,32% +1; Stoxx 2579 +1,3%; EUR 1,298 +50)</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">. Still a fickle
market, especially every time the Fiscal Cliff Discussion Event Risk (FCDER)
pops up. And FCDER there was with a rocky US session, once Europe had headed
home. Europe felt again rather direction-less on its own on </span><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/2012/11/30-nov-2012-whats-up-4-non-blondes-1992.html" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Friday</span></b></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
morning (and later, as well). Equities still rather firmer than not; with Bonds
just the same. Macro data generally rather bleak, although expectations have
been put so low lately that anything about palatable will do. Peeking over the
Pond to see whether Fiscal Cliff discussions could scuttle things. Here late
valuations are such that numbers should be really good to get things going. So
ending the week: Drifting. Chatting. Checking. <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">"</b></span><a href="http://youtu.be/bwbUeg3W10I" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">What's Up?</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">" (Bunds 1,38% +1; Spain 5,3% -2;
Stoxx 2580 unch; EUR 1,301 +30)</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">. And guess what? After
yet another round of FCDRE, the US market closed just flat… Peace & Love.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Hey, this was cuddle time-week! A big Hug
for everyone: Bonds, Equities, Periphery, ah, Periphery bonds! Greece…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">As Super Mario said himself on Friday,
albeit in a different context: “<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">We were living in a Fairy World</i></b>”. Cute
way of spelling it out.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fairies,
rainbows, wonderful world… <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Let’s put IZ
on the case!</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"</span></b><a href="http://youtu.be/wZFkXQKCuBc" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Somewhere Over The Rainbow</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"
(Bunds 1,38% -6; Spain 5,30% -30; Stoxx 2580 +1,1%; EUR 1,301 +50)</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Having
been slapped left and right last week, EGBs were back in shape after that poor
previous week that had seen Bunds widen by 12bp to 1.44%, which by and large
remained historically rather tight. Still not sure whether the trigger was
solely the general Risk On sentiment or the realisation that somehow the EZ was
sticking together – and that some spirit of debt mutualisation was eventually
underlying this. Caught together, hung together. Probably both. Overdone maybe,
and in line with Treasuries, the Hard Core crawled back, although the
Compression movement this week remained impressive and the action was rather in
Soft Core and obviously in the Periphery. </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">While
Monday wasn’t the most exciting day, Bunds regained some 3bp, which right away got
lost on some Hard-Soft compression the next day. Wednesday was a good one
(-6), while Thursday was even. With Friday at unchanged to +1, Bunds regained 6
basis points on the week, closing at 1.38%, recouping slightly more than half
of last week’s losses. 10 YRS Bunds remain on the lower end of their range (1.13%
- 2.07% between retracements at 1.35%, where they remained stuck for a week a
fortnight ago, and then 1.49% and 1.60% on the upside).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">As
mentioned, the action was in the Soft Core: Austria now 36 to Bunds (from 40),
France and Belgium closing at about historic absolute lows of 2.04% and 2.16%
with Bund spreads back down to 66 (from 72) and 78 (from 85). Belgium probably
unduly tight to France at +12. Interesting to see that swaps remained about
unchanged to Bunds and that Agency / Supra paper still seems rather stuck to
swaps, hence underperforming a little in the compression movement.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The
Periphery had once more a serious Bull Run, more than simple love, especially Spain,
tighter by 30bp on the week (unch, -9, -20, +1 & -2) and Italy, just
behind, -26bp on the week (unch, -3, -13, -3 &<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>-3). So after last week’s 12bp tightening for
BTPs and 26bp for BONOs, we are closing below symbolic 4.5% for the first and
nearing the low of the former stress highs around 5.25-5.50% for the second.
And all that still without OMT put into practice. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">OMT? What’s that? All but forgotten? </i>Split performance of the short
end (except for Friday) with short Italians at 1.80% (from 1.82%) and Spain at
2.83% (from 2.96%). Quite a curve flattener in Italy, especially on Friday,
with 2-10s closing at 247 (from 292); Spain at 269 (from 266). Not much of news
out of Spain to fundamentally change things, but no stress either.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Good
(too good?) Italian 5 and 10 YRS auction on Thursday – price-wise. However, the
did to cover was <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">reaaaaally</i> modest at
1.2. But then, as in late auctions, great prices, but 25bp tighter in 24 hours…
Who <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">reaaaaally</i> wants to buy that
stuff for real? Honestly?</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10s
back to mid-Dec 2010 levels. 5 YRS through the March 2012 lows and hitting,
too, Dec 2010 levels. We had hit 2.60-lows in Oct 2010 before rapidly drifting
to the 3.75%-4.00% area within 2 months. Likewise in Italian bills: EUR 7.5bn 6m
bills sold at 0.92% (from1.35% late Oct). This was the first time Italian 6m
bills were sold below 1% since Aug 2010.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not
quite there yet for Spain… Slightly over the targeted EUR 4bn were sold in
Spanish 3 & 6m bills at 1.25% and 1.67% (last 1.42% and 2.02% one month
ago). Ok, we’re still miles away from the pre-crisis and pre-pre-crisis lows
(2012 low in 6m was 0.76% in Feb and were in the 0.50% mid 2010), but now more
than halved from the highs.Still, a very good week in the Periphery.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not much to say on Greece, except that new
price highs have been hit on the very long end. Closing at 16.00% (-25 bp) for
2023s and 12.50% (-100).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Need to see how that buy-back story pans
out for real. So give us those buy-back prices now! NOW!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swaps closing on historic lows on
Friday evening. 2-10s tightening to 126 on long-end strength (from 131 last
week and 127 prior) with 2-5s at 45 (from 48) and 5-10s at 81 (from 83). 10-30s
widening, though, to 63 (from 61). Still think that 30s should perform in case
of confirmed ROn with reduced inflation-fear.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">After
last week’s wild action in Credit (13-14% tightening), as for equities, things got
calmer and markets mainly drifter sideways, closing barely changed. Crossover
still just below 500.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Having
ripped 5.1% higher last week, European equities fared rather well this week
again, closing up 1.1%, albeit in tamer manner. Bit of a correction Monday
(-0.4%) and Tuesday (-0.2%), recovery on Wednesday (+0.4%) and a 1.3% push up
on Thursday before closing unchanged on Friday in low volatility. Biggest worry
are Fiscal Cliff discussions popping up. In absence of negative news, shorts
would rather hit the button once year-highs fully attained, next to some bad
news. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">But everything seems so nice out
there these days…</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Volatility
drifting in a low basis of just above 15.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European
50 & 100d averages: EStoxx 2509/2460, DAX 7271/7106, CAC 3447/3419, MIB
15552/15118, IBEX 7827/7509.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US
50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU 13209/13135/12995, S&P 1422/1409/1384,
NASDAQ 3027/3018/2987 with AAPL at 616/625/600.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Having
been a ripping ROn indicator last week (+260), things got quieter around the
EUR. Difficult to get past the symbolic 1.30-mark, but doing <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">juuust</i> so on COB Friday (1.301). Still,
up 50 pips for the week…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Next
stop 1.315-1.317 area.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.291, 100d 1.270 & 200d
1.279. Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at
1.273& 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).Jul 2012 to Sep rebound levels: 1.231 –
1.247 – 1.261 – 1.274 – 1.291 -1.317 .</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Commodities
enjoyed a mixed fate. CRB up a meaningless tick overall. Oil is drifting
sideways on the week. Gold had its moments of feeling suddenly unloved and
trashed, unable to break over $1750 and down 2.1% on the week with a weak
Friday afternoon. Copper fared better, up 2.6% on the week. China might
eventually help. Or growth pop up somewhere…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues were a blast with 30 deals, totalling nearly
EUR 27.7bn (of which EUR 7bn for the EFSF in a 1-year deal, because of open
rating issues after France’s downgrade). EFSF Moody’s rating settled Friday
night at Aa1, btw. Wide choice of issuers with half of the deals from
Corporates for over EUR 9bn (BASF EUR 1bn 10 YRS, SabMiller EUR 1bn Jan 2020s,
IPIC 2-trancher EUR 800m May 2018 & EUR 850m May 2023), among also some
Italian issuers (Lottomatica, Finmeccanica, FIAT). “Non-Core” Covered Bonds with
BBVA EUR 2bn 5 YRS at MS +260 (through Spain) and AIB with EUR 500m 3 YRS. Some
2 YRS FRN senior financials with a chunky BPCE for EUR 1.75bn and fellow French
CM Arkea for EUR 750m. On the SSA-side, next to the EFSF, Spanish FADE hit the
market after over one year with EUR 1.75bn 3 YRS and ICO increased a short 5
YRS issue for EUR 500m at the end of the week. German Land NRW with EUR 1.5bn 5
YRS on the other end of the credit range. So stuff for anybody.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook:
</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fiscal
Cliff Discussion Risk Event still live. Greek maths on buy-back. Spain maths on
its budget. Italian maths… Bah… Seem to be drifting. Bond strength with the
latest levels in equities somehow puzzling. Growth slow-down versus H2/2013
Outlook. Risk levels probably too low. Not much on the fundamental side in the
next 2 days. Waiting for an ECB-gesture (which shouldn’t come). Cyprus-bailout
for 03 Dec.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs, and now all of them, very strong
alongside very tight Risk. Seems a little odd and decorellated. Compression
movement still ongoing with the Soft Core and the Periphery tightening in on
Germany.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">On the week (compared to Fri 23 Nov
COB):</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10
YRS Yields: Germany 1,38% (-6); Luxembourg 1,49% (-6); Netherlands 1,61% (-8);
Finland 1,62% (-7); Swaps 1,67% (-7); EU 1,70% (-8); Austria 1,74% (-10); EIB
1,86% (-8); EFSF 1,99% (-8); France 2,04% (-12); Belgium 2,16% (-13); Italy
4,49% (-26); Spain 5,30% (-30).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10
YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 11bp (unch); Netherlands 23bp (-2); Finland 24bp (-1); Swaps
29bp (-1); EU 32bp (-2); Austria 36bp (-4); EIB 48bp (-2); EFSF 61bp (-2); France
66bp (-6); Belgium 78bp (-7); Italy 311bp (-20); Spain 392bp (-24).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR
swap curve 2-5 YRS 45bp (-3,0); 5-10 YRS 81bp (-2,0) 10-30 YRS 63bp (+2,0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2
YRS German BKOs closed 0,007% (+1) and 5 YRS OBLs 0,40% (-3), on the week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">UST
at 1,61% (-8). Swiss 2-YRS closing about unchanged at -0.230% at -0.225%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main
at 123 from 121 (1,7% wider); Financials at 160 after 161 (-0,6% tighter);
Cross at 497 from 496 (0,2% wider).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx
Futures at 2580 / +1,1% from 2552 with S&P minis at 1412 / +0,7% from 1402,
at European COB last week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX
index at 15,8 after 15,1 last week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil
88,5/110,9 (WTI/Brent) from 88,2/111,0 (+0,4%/0,0%). Gold at 1712 after 1748
(-2,1%). Copper at 361 from 352 (+2,6%) . CRB closed +1 tick at 299,0 (+0,3%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">After rising continuously for nearly 3
weeks, hitting 1104 on Wednesday, the BDIY gave back some gains over the last 2
days, closing at 1086 (down from 1090 last Friday).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Intermediate
2012 high (post-Chinese New Year) was at 1165 early May after a 10-year low at
647 early Feb, before dipping to 872 in June, rising back to 1162, retesting
lows at 661 mid-Sep, re-testing highs at 1109 before sliding back to 916 in the
last down-leg</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR
1,301 after 1,296 last Friday</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">guesstimate</i>:
Greek bonds closing the week at their tightest levels of 16.00% (-25 bp) for
2023s and 12.50% (-100).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Need to see how that buy-back story pans
out. So give us those buy-back prices now!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels Friday COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Hmm…
Bits and pieces on the macro front. Industrial output in Spain on Wed. Factory
Orders in Germany on Thu. Fri NFP in the US.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Thursday
ECB& BOE (FED on 12 Dec)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The
start of next week will be flushed with bills (Belgium, EFSF, France, Germany,
Netherlands) and see additional EUR 4bn German 2 YRS on Wednesday. Spain will
hold an auction in 3, 7 and (short) 10 YRS on Wednesday as well (as Thursday
will be closed), while France will supply its monthly OAT auction on Thursday,
albeit for only up to EUR 4bn and without 10 YRS (2018, 2019 & 2027).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC:
Mon Final MfG PMI; Tue PPI fcst +2.5% after +2.7% YoY; Wed Final Comp PMI,
Retail Sales; Thu EZ GDP and ECB</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE:
Mon Final MfG PMI; Wed Final Serv PMI; Thu Factory Orders last -3.3 MoM, Friday
Industrial Production last -1.8% MoM/-1.2% YoY</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR:
Monday Final MfG PMI; Wed Final Serv PMI; Thu Q3 unemployment</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy:
Mon Budget Balance, Car Sales; Wed Final Serv PMI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain:
Tue Unemployment; Wed Industrial Output (last 7% wda).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US:
Mon Final PMI, MfG ISM & Construction Spending; Tue ISM NY; Wed Factory
Orders, Productivity and Labour Costs; Thu Claims; Fri NFP</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click link under title or below for
today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">With everything so cosy out there: Let’s
all have a big, big cuddle!</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">A really <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">BIG</b> one. And strum those strings, strum ‘em!!!</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/wZFkXQKCuBc" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">MusicLink</span></b></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin-bottom: 0.0001pt; text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-35667541272990764622012-11-30T17:55:00.001+01:002012-11-30T17:56:53.989+01:0030 Nov 2012 – “ What's Up? ” (4 Non Blondes, 1992)<div style="text-align: justify;">
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">30 Nov 2012 – “ What's Up? ” (4 Non Blondes, 1992)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/bwbUeg3W10I" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Europe rather direction-less on its own.
Equities still rather firmer than not; with Bonds just the same. Macro data
generally rather bleak, although expectations have been put so low lately that
anything about palatable will do. Peeking over the Pond to see whether Fiscal
Cliff discussions could scuttle things. Here late valuations are such that
numbers should be really good to get things going. So: Drifting. Chatting.
Checking.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"What's Up?" (Bunds 1,38% +1;
Spain 5,3% -2; Stoxx 2580 unch; EUR 1,301 +30)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fiscal
Ping-Pong, Part III yesterday evening. Nice hiccups (+0.6%, -0.5%, +0.3%,-0.5%,
+0.4%, +0.25%, -0.4%, +0.3% to close up a quarter in INDU. Jumpy but barely
ever negative). Dow has retaken its 200d average, the S&P is back over its
100d and targeting the 50, while the NASDAQ is doing just the same. Bah. More
to come. Less unsettling than it was 2 weeks ago.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Asia</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> closing the week in decent manner, especially for
late closers. Even China
made it into positive territory, after trading yet new lows, especially at
open.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">German
Retail Sales disappointing at -2.8% MoM (fcst -0.4% after +1.5%, revised down
one point to +0.5%), -0.8% after -3.4% YoY. Not exactly thrilling. French
Consumer spending as expected at -0.2% MoM / -0.5% YoY. French PPI better at
+0.5% (fcst +0.2% after rev. +0.4%) / +2.9% unch YoY. Spanish CPI dipping to 3%
(fcst +3.4% after 3.5%), bargaining power reduced with 25%-plus unemployed.
Talking of which, Italian unemployment worse than expected and rising to 11.1%
in Oct (fcst 10.9% after 10.8%). All in all, not exactly thrilling, but
seemingly not the worry of the moment. Draghi on the ticker seeing a recovery
in H2/2013. So, just a question of time and patience… And doing the right
things. Parliamentary debate in Germany
on the Greek aid allowing everyone to express a) doubts and b) solidarity
nevertheless. Sign it off, be patient. The next package will come soon enough… Not
exactly thrilling.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bit
of a wobbly start, trying to find common ground between FC, nothing burning in Europe, a better close, the EUR trading above 1.30 and
the above-mentioned not exactly thrilling day-to-day reality… So best is to
stay close to home. Half an hour into the cash session, Hard Core EGBs were
about 1bp softer (1.38% in Bunds, 1.63% in Treasuries), the Soft Core a tick
tighter with France hitting a new 2.03% low in 10 YRS. Periphery split -/+ 1
with Italy at 4.55% and Spanish 10s at 5.33%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Credit
unchanged. Equities up a quarter from close, knowing that with all the hiccups
the US
indices closed where they stood at European COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil
down 0.5%, Gold up a quarter and Copper flat at 360. EUR 1.302 (from 1.298).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Quote
of the Day by Super Mario, asserting that the Crisis has shown that “<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">We were living in a Fairy World</i>”. Cute
way of spelling it out. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Duh!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EZ
Unemployment hitting the expected historic high of 11.7% (up from 11.6%). EZ
CPI a brighter spot, as underlying the ECB pitch that it eventually would get
lower, falling to +2.2% (fcst 2.4% after 2.5%). As for Spain, at some
point prices must fall when there are so many unemployed. Sadly makes sense.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">No
supply today. Yesterday’s (totally overpriced) Italian auction issues under
water at 3.42% and 4.55% (from 3.23% and 4.45% average auction yields and
closes on Wednesday evening at 3.385% and 4.585%). Not exactly stellar.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Talking
of which, Spain
drifted further wider during the morning from yesterday’s outwordly yield lows
of 2.55% in 2s and 5.15% in 10s, widening to 2.85% and 5.38%, back to the 400
to Bund mark.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">France</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> doing itself and its spread a pleasure by announcing
an OAT auction of a mere EUR 4bn next Thursday, and with no 10 YRS (Oct 2018,
Oct 2019 and Oct 2027). The last auction was for a combined EUR 7.5bn size, of
which EUR 4.4bn 10s (next to off-the-run 7 YRS and 2035s).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Sluggish
Friday sideways trading. Everything about unchanged.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds
1,37% (unch), OBLs 0,40% (unch) and BKOs 0,010% (+0,5). UST 1,62% (-1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish
2s at 2,85% (+9), 10s at 5,38% (+6). 2-10 YRS spread 252bp (-4). Spain about 20bp wider from Thursday noon.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian
2s at 1,80% (+4), 10s at 4,53% (-3). 2-10 YRS spread 273bp (-7).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities
some 0.2% firmer. Credit unchanged.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR
1.301 and Commodities by and large unchanged.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Big YAWN!</span></i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"> Will need to wait for US figures to get things moving, or not, or for
Fiscal Ping-Pong, round 4.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek
rescue vote in Germany Parliament going through, but with Merkel falling short of a coalition majority.
Then again, well-orchestrated, not a surprise.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US figures showing Personal Income
stagnating (0%, fcst +0.2% after +0.4%) and Spending diminishing (-0.2%, fcst
flat after +0.4%, rev. +0.3%) but with no immediate reaction in an amorphous
market.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Milwaukee NAPM up, but under forecast (45.5
after 43.3) and finally the Chicago PM about in line at 50.4 (50.5 after 49.9).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">By and large flat US cash open. Amorphous? <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">What’s up? What’s going on? Nada.</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Month end. Waiting for something to happen –
or not. Trying to avoid any FCDRE (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Fiscal
Cliff Discussion Risk Event</i>)…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish bonds eventually tightening back as
nothing else happens.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Falling asleep into the close, opening an
eye to hit F9…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,38% (+1), OBLs at 0,40%
(unch) and BKOs 0,007% (+0,2). UST at 1,61% (-2) COB. Ah! Movement! 1 tick! Soft
Core closing near record lows (give or take one bp), but not spot on. Good
week, though.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain back on track on an after-thought, recouping
today’s soft patch and yesterday’s losses and closing down 30bp on the week.
B+392. Note that the recovery in Periphery was on the longer end only with 2
YRS softer.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,83% (+7), 10s at 5,30% (-2).
2-10 YRS spread 247bp (-9).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,80% (+4), 10s at 4,49%
(-7). 2-10 YRS spread 269bp (-11).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities flat flat flat.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR closing <i>juuuuuust </i>above 1.30, for
the principle. Commodities flat. Gold suffering, again, an attack to the downside.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Quiet. Europe rather
direction-less on its own. Equities still rather firmer than not; with Bonds
just the same. Macro data generally rather bleak, although expectations have
been put so low lately that anything about palatable will do. Peeking over the
Pond to see whether Fiscal Cliff discussions could scuttle things. Here late
valuations are such that numbers should be really good to get things going. So:
Drifting. Chatting. Checking.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Fiscal Cliff Discussion Risk Event
still live. Greek maths on buy-back. Spain maths on its budget. Italian maths…
French... Bah… Seem to be drifting. Bond strength with the latest levels in equities
somehow puzzling. Growth slow-down versus H2/2013 Outlook. Risk levels probably
too low. Not much on the fundamental side in the next 2 days. Maybe waiting for an
ECB-gesture (which shouldn’t come). Cyprus-bailout for 03 Dec.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2509/2460, DAX 7271/7106, CAC 3447/3419, MIB 15552/15118, IBEX 7827/7509.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13209/13135/12995, S&P 1422/1409/1384, NASDAQ 3027/3018/2987 with AAPL at
616/625/600.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.291, 100d 1.270 & 200d 1.279.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273&
1.315, then 1.349 (50%).Jul 2012 to Sep rebound levels: 1.231 – 1.247 – 1.261 –
1.274 – 1.291 -1.317 .</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues closing the week with Telenor
selling EUR 600m 12 YRS at MS +83 and Spanish government-guaranteed ICO trying
to jump on yesterday’s FADE band-wagon, but closing a minimum EUR 500m increase
of an outstanding Jul 2017 at Spain +60 (about MS +405) at that minimum amount.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">This was quite an active week of over EUR
27bn in 30 New Issues (including a EUR 7bn 1-year deal for the EFSF).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t miss the <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">Shuffle Rewind</b> over the weekend.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,38% (+1);
Luxembourg 1,49% (unch); Netherlands 1,61% (+1); Finland 1,62% (+1); Swaps 1,67%
(-1); EU 1,70% (unch), Austria 1,74% (unch); EIB 1,86% (-1); EFSF 1,99% (unch);
France 2,04% (unch); Belgium 2,16% (-1); Italy 4,49% (-7); Spain 5,30% (-2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 11bp (-1);
Netherlands 23bp (unch); Finland 24bp (unch); Swaps 29bp (-2); EU 32bp (-1);
Austria 36bp (-1); EIB 48bp (-2); EFSF 61bp (-1); France 66bp (-1); Belgium
78bp (-2); Italy 311bp (-8); Spain 392bp (-3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 45bp (unch); 5-10
YRS 81bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 63bp (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,007% (+0,2) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,40% (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main +1 to 123 (0,8% wider); Financials +1
to 160 (0,6% wider); Cross +3 to 497 (0,6% wider).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2580 / +0,0% (from 2579)
with S&P minis at 1412 (-0,3% from 1416, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 15,8 after 15,2 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 88,5/110,9 (WTI/Brent) from 88,2/110,9
(+0,4%/+0,1%). Gold at 1712 after 1727 (-0,8%). Copper at 361 from 360 (+0,3%).
CRB at EU COB 299,0 from 297,0 (+0,7%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Another fall after yesterday, after nearly
3 weeks of continuous rise for the BDIY, down 1% to fixing at 1086. Target
1162-high, seen in July, post-Chinese New Year slide.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,301 from 1,298</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">guesstimate</i>:
Greek bonds had the 2023s ticking down 25 to 16.00%, having ended yesterday
unchanged, with the 2042s remaining unchanged today at 12.50%. So give us those
buy-back prices now!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Hmm… Only bits and pieces on the macro
front. Industrial output in Spain on Wed. Factory Orders in Germany on Thu. Fri
NFP in the US.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Thursday ECB& BOE (FED on 12 Dec)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The start of next week will be flushed with
bills (Belgium, EFSF, France, Germany, Netherlands) and see additional EUR 4bn
German 2 YRS on Wednesday. Spain will hold an auction in 3, 7 and (short) 10
YRS on Wednesday as well (as Thursday will be closed), while France will supply
its monthly OAT auction on Thursday, albeit for only up to EUR 4bn and without
10 YRS (2018, 2019 & 2027).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC:
Mon Final MfG PMI; Tue PPI fcst +2.5% after +2.7% YoY; Wed Final Comp PMI,
Retail Sales; Thu EZ GDP and ECB</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Mon Final MfG PMI; Wed Final Serv PMI;
Thu Factory Orders last -3.3 MoM, Friday Industrial Production last -1.8%
MoM/-1.2% YoY</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Monday Final MfG PMI; Wed Final Serv
PMI; Thu Q3 unemployment</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Mon Budget Balance, Car Sales; Wed
Final Serv PMI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Tue Unemployment; Wed Industrial
Output (last 7% wda).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Mon Final PMI, MfG ISM &
Construction Spending; Tue ISM NY; Wed Factory Orders, Productivity and Labour
Costs; Thu Claims; Fri NFP</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">And
I am feeling a little peculiar/ And so I wake in the morning / And I step
outside / And I take a deep breath and I get real high / And I scream at the
top of my lungs</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">What's
going on?</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/bwbUeg3W10I" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-25362419698269926612012-11-29T18:03:00.001+01:002012-11-29T18:08:25.075+01:0029 Nov 2012 – “ Sea of Love ” (The Honeydrippers, 1984)<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">29 Nov 2012 – “ Sea of Love ” (The Honeydrippers, 1984)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/_9-026ZCKR8" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Looks like yesterday put into practice:
Let’s thank everyone to turn around markets, when they sink. Nothing to break the barn stomp in Periphery bonds (but themselves). Italy
brilliantly stuffed its primary dealer at a 2-year low. Core EGBs holding quite steady, given <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROn</i> in Risk and Periphery. Strong US GDP
revision – but, as expected anyway. Given the
actual level in Risk, good numbers are seen as given. Nothing weak, no more,
never. Swimming in a Sea of (Risk) Love. Watch the Event / Headline risk on FC
(& Greece.
The math still seems quite odd…). Hard Periphery (especially
Spain) slap-back in the afternoon, though.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"Sea Of Love" (Bunds 1,37% unch;
Spain 5,32% +1; Stoxx 2579 +1,3%; EUR 1,298 +50)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fiscal
Cliff Ping-Pong, part II. First floored then pepped up, the INDU grabbed some
200 points from yesterday’s lows to close, along side the other indices, a
healthy +0.8%. S&P back over the 1400-mark, and over its 100d average.
NASDAQ likewise back over its 200d mark. The FED Beige Book noted an activity
generally expanding at a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">measured</i>
pace from prior <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">modest</i>. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">All is Good!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All
was good in Asia (generally up 1%), too, except for China, which after initially
holding throughout the session, was dumped 1% in the closing hour. <i>Tough love</i>.
See yesterday’s comments on Chinese index levels.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Europe,
swimming in a Sea of Love, and nothing overnight.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish
housing still in the dumps with housing permits +23.2% MoM, but down 51.3% YoY.
I guess, at some stage the base effects becomes such that counting in unit would
be more representative.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">German
unemployment a positive surprise with +5k (fcst +16k after +19k), stable at
6.9%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian
Biz Confidence slightly better, too, at 88.5 (fcst 88 after 87.8).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Unsurprisingly,
the day started on a stronger footing in (moderate) Risk On with European
equities up 0.7% (matching the rise in US equities from closing levels).
Adequate, although muted reaction in EGBs with Bunds a tick softer (1.38% +1,
UST 1.63% +1). Not much of a reaction curve-wise, be it in Bunds or in swaps
(on their all-time lows). EGBs in line, flat to a shade softer in the Hard
Core.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Periphery tightening 3-3bp at open with BONOs at 5.30% and Italian 10s at
4.560% (ahead of the 5 YRS, opening at 3.335%, and 10 YRS auction later).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Credit
snapping back yesterday’s widening and opening 3-6 tighter (-2.4%/-3.6%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR
1.297 (from 1.293 close) and Commodities just about 0.4% stronger across the
curve.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Good
traction in Periphery bonds throughout the morning.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EZ
Confidence numbers beating estimates, too (albeit on a low base): Services
-11.9 (fcts -12.5 after -12.1), Biz Climate seen at -1.2 (fcst -1.6 unchanged),
Industrial Confidence at -15.1 (fcst -17% after rev. -18.3) and overall
Economic Confidence at 85.7 (fcst 84.5 unchanged, revised 84.3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Last
month would thus have been the through for the moment.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">C</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">losing
this month government supply with EUR 3bn 5 YRS at 3.23% average yield (COB
3.385%, this morning’s open 3.335%. last 3.80% last month) and just shy of EUR
3bn 10 YRS at 4.45% (COB 4.585%, open 4.56%. Last 4.81% - for off-the-runs -
mid Nov and 4.92% one month ago). Last month’s on-the-run auction had been for
EUR 7bn.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bid to cover <i>reaaaaally </i>modest at 1.2 for
both. But then, as in late auctions, great prices, but 25bp tighter in 24
hours… Who <i>reaaaaally </i>wants to buy that stuff for real? Honestly?</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10s back to mid-Dec 2010 levels. 5 YRS
through the March 2012 lows and hitting, too, Dec 2010 levels. We had hit
2.60-lows in Oct 2010 before rapidly drifting to the 3.75%-4.00% area within 2
months. Not quite there yet for Spain…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Had hence a temporary break in the love for
Italian bonds, although disappointment initially restricted. Cooled off Risk
appetite marginally with equities entering lunch near their highs, 1% above
yesterday’s closing levels.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Credit still strong, on early morning
levels (-3/-6 ticks) with the Crossover back below the 500-mark.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Core EGBs 2 wider, Soft Core flat to a tick
tighter. Periphery good looking, although slightly put off by the Italian
auction results and 8bp wider than the tightest levels seen during in the
morning (and in the last couple of months, as it is). Lows tested at 4.45% in
BTPs and 5.15% in BONOs. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Sea</i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> of Love</i><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Note that the correction in Periphery bonds
didn’t really prop up Hard Core demand, as their tightening didn’t trigger
massive sales either.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,39% (+2), OBLs 0,41% (+2), BKOs
0,007% (+2). UST 1,64% (+2) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,63% (-6), 10s at 5,24%
(-7). 2-10 YRS spread 262bp (-1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italian 2s at 1,67% (+1), 10s at 4,52%
(-7). 2-10 YRS spread 285bp (-7).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1.299, having briefly flirted with the
30-handle, but just so. Oil up 1% throughout the morning. Rest about unchanged.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US figures to start the afternoon with
quite a revision in US GDP, which was actually expected, taking Q3 to 2.7%
(from 2% with forecasts of the revision to 2.8%). Personal Consumption
obviously NOT the driver, as revised down to 1.4% (from 2%, fcst of revision
1.9%). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Thanks for government spending!</i>
To round up figures, Claims came a tick over forecasts at 393k (fcst 390k after
410k revised 416k). Continuous Claims at 3287k (fcst 3325 after 3337, rev.
3357).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">While the GDP revision remained good in
absolute terms, expectations were a bit higher. Add claims falling less the
expected and bonds got a leg up again, tightening back a little. Risk initially
slightly refreshed, however only so slightly.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US cash gapping up 0.5%, leading Europe
back higher in full sync. Pending Home Sales on the rise, up an unexpected 5.2%
MoM (fcst 1% after rev. 04%), a staggering 18% on a YoY basis (fcst 8.9% after
rev. 8.7%). <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Can’t be Sandy, can it?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>EGBs
put, although the softening in Periphery bonds continued with Spain erasing all
morning gains and Italy back over the 4.50%-mark.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Cherry topping the Sea of Love cup cake:
S&P affirming China’s AA-, given the “exceptional” growth outlook (Might
finally give Shanghai some wings to end the month tomorrow). Worth a good
quarter point extra boost in equities. Ding! <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Same player schmoozes again</i>.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">It remained that Spain is NOT China and
that it remained on the weakish side into the close.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Which can’t be said of long Greeks, still
soaring, given that the buy-back price discussion remains seemingly open and
hitting a new price high of 28.5% of par (12.5% yield), up from 25.75% (13.5%
yield) on Friday, while the 2023s seem stuck at 16.25% (about 35% of par).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European equities closing HOD (+1.3%), about
1% away from March highs. Credit 2.5% tighter (10 ticks from March lows) with
Financials even down to 159 (4.2% tighter).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Core EGBs remain decoupled from the ROn
environment and closed unchanged. Maybe driven by the weakness of the Periphery
short end? Italian 2s hitting 1.57% in the morning, before being ripped back to
1.80% and recovering a little. Similar picture in short BONOs, down to 2.52%,
back to 2.79%, before regaining some 3bps. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Tough
Love, here!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,37% (unch), OBLs at 0,40%
(+1) and BKOs 0,005% (+1,7). UST at 1,63% (+1) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,76% (+7), 10s at 5,32% (+1).
2-10 YRS spread 256bp (-7)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"></span>Italian 2s at 1,76% (+10), 10s at 4,56% (-3).
2-10 YRS spread 280bp (-12).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR stuck and closing below 1.30. Good
drive in Oil (+2%). Copper (China) +2%, too. Gold still rather sideways, after
being slammed lately. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Gold? Who wants
Gold?</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Looks like yesterday put into
practice: Let’s thank everyone to turn around markets, when they sink (<i>Good
timing yesterday</i>). Nothing to break the barn stomp in Periphery bonds (but
themselves), so people might as well side-step going short into strength. Italy
brilliantly stuffed its primary dealer at a 2-year low, but then, they hadn’t
to bid that aggressively. Core EGBs holding quite steady, given <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROn</i> in Risk and Periphery. Strong US GDP
revision – but, as expected anyway, meeting some yawning folks. Given the
actual level in Risk, good numbers are seen as given. Nothing weak, no more,
never. Swimming in a Sea of (Risk) Love. Watch the Event / Headline risk on FC
(& Greece.
The math still seems quite odd… <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Must be
missing some Greek numbers in the equation</i>). Hard Periphery (especially
Spain) slap-back in the afternoon, though.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: German Oct Retail Sales expected
to fall 0.4% after rev. 0.8% MoM, as is French Consumer Spending (fcst -0.2%
after +0.1% MoM) with PPI put at 2.9% YoY. EZ Unemployment figures should rise
to 11.7% from 11.6%. Italian and Spanish CPI. A sad reminder. Closing the month
with US Personal Income expected to grow 0.2% MoM, flay YoY, NAPM at 47 after
43.3 and Chicago PM rising above the 50-mark to 50.5 from just below 49.9.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2509/2456, DAX 7271/7096, CAC 3446/3414, MIB 15550/15098, IBEX 7828/7496.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13220/13132/12994, S&P 1423/1408/1384, NASDAQ 3030/3018/2986 with AAPL
100/200d at 626/599.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.290, 100d 1.269 & 200d
1.280. Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at
1.273& 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).Jul 2012 to Sep rebound levels: 1.231 –
1.247 – 1.261 – 1.274 – 1.291 -1.317 .</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Issues saw a chunky, really chunky FADE
deal for EUR 1.75bn 3 YRS, priced at 70bp over Spain / about MS +360. Took a
while to get that one going (Investor call was on 12 Nov), but met with EUR 2.5bn
in demand. Spanish water tariff deficit financing vehicle, explicit Spanish
government-guarantee. Hadn’t really managed to issue in benchmarks for over a
year. Allocation might have been on the high side, priced at Spanish lows… To
be followed. Happily the margin to Spain was fixed in the morning, while the
pricing was in the afternoon with Spanish 2s correcting from 3.15% to 3.35%...</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Otherwise, it was BBB corporate day with
SabMiller quenching investor thirst for household names with EUR 1bn Jan 2020s
at MS +70, next to EUR 500m for Bilfinger in 7 YRS at MS +115 and EUR 500m for
G4S at MS +167.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,37% (unch);
Luxembourg 1,49% (unch); Netherlands 1,60% (unch); Finland 1,61% (+1); Swaps
1,68% (unch); EU 1,70% (-1), Austria 1,74% (unch); EIB 1,87% (-1); EFSF 1,99%
(-1); France 2,04% (-1); Belgium 2,17% (-3); Italy 4,56% (-3); Spain 5,32%
(+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 12bp (unch);
Netherlands 23bp (unch); Finland 24bp (+1); Swaps 31bp (unch); EU 33bp (-1);
Austria 37bp (unch); EIB 50bp (-1); EFSF 62bp (-1); France 67bp (-1); Belgium
80bp (-3); Italy 319bp (-3); Spain 395bp (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 45bp (unch); 5-10
YRS 81bp (-1,0) 10-30 YRS 63bp (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,005% (+1,7) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,40% (+1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main -3 to 122 (-2,4% tighter); Financials
-7 to 159 (-4,2% tighter); Cross -14 to 494 (-2,8% tighter).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2579 / +1,3% (from 2547)
with S&P minis at 1416 (+1,2% from 1399, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 15,2 after 16,1 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 88,2/110,9 (WTI/Brent) from 86,4/109,1
(+2,1%/+1,7%). Gold at 1727 after 1717 (+0,6%). Copper at 360 from 353 (+2,0%).
CRB at EU COB 297,0 from 298,0 (-0,3%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">First fall in 2 weeks for the BDIY, giving
back yesterday’s 7 ticks and fixing at 1097. Target 1162-high seen in July,
post-Chinese New Year slide (5.25% away).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,298 from 1,293</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">guesstimate</i>:
Greek bonds closing unchanged in 2023s at 16.25%, but once more tighter in
2042s at 12.50% (-25) for 2042s, as the last word on the price level doesn’t
seem to have been said yet.</span></span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span> </span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Hm… Bits and pieces on the macro front.
Industrial output in Spain on Wed. Factory Orders in Germany on Thu. Fri NFP in
the US.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Thursday ECB & BOE (FED on 12 Dec)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The start of next week will be flushed with
bills (Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands), see additional EUR 4bn German 2
YRS. Spain will hold an auction in 3, 7 and (short) 10 YRS on Wednesday (as
Thursday will be closed) and France supply its monthly OAT auction on Thursday.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC:
Fri CPI fcst 2.4% after 2.5% YoY, Unemployment fcst 11.7% after 11.6%; Final
MfG PMI; Tue PPI fcst +2.5% after +2.7% YoY; Wed Final Comp PMI, Retail Sales;
Thu EZ GDP and ECB</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Fri Retail Sales; Mon Final MfG PMI;
Wed Final Serv PMI; Thu Factory Orders last -3.3 MoM, Friday Industrial
Production last -1.8% MoM/-1.2% YoY</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Fri PPI and Consumer Spending; Monday
Final MfG PMI; Wed Final Serv PMI; Thu Q3 unemployment</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Fri Unemployment, CPI & PPI; Mon
Budget Balance, Car Sales; Wed Final Serv PMI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Fri CPI; Tue Unemployment; Wed
Industrial Output (last 7% wda).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Fri Personal Income & Spending,
NAPM and Chicago PM. Mon Final PMI, MfG ISM & Construction Spending; Tue
ISM NY; Wed Factory Orders, Productivity and Labour Costs; Thu Claims; Fri NFP</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Original
by Phil Philipps, 1959, of course.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Ok,
admittedly that song IS cheesy, but how could Robert Plant fall soooo loooww… Even
tongue in cheek, this is low.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/_9-026ZCKR8" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
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<![endif]-->A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-77283997703321932362012-11-28T17:53:00.003+01:002012-11-28T18:04:13.343+01:0028 Nov 2012 – “ I Thank You ” (ZZ Top, 1979)<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">28 Nov 2012 – “ I Thank You ” (ZZ Top, 1979)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/IqYugOLrDL0" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Once more, not much own stuff to chew on Europe’s own. Drifting. EGBs very strong on
(relative) equity weakness. Periphery starting to glow like the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ZZ Top Eliminator</i>. In absence of
any strong lead, need to start thanking everyone for input and support (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Mario, Ben, Angie, Chrissie… Anyone working
on the Fiscal Cliff. Mariano & Mario. Wolfie...</i>). New paradigm put into
practice: nothing will ever be weak again, nothing. And watch out for FC Ping-Pong!
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">And I Thank You!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"I Thank You" (Bunds 1,37% -6;
Spain 5,31% -20; Stoxx 2547 +0,4%; EUR 1,293 unch)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Yeah,
that Fiscal Cliff-thing was bound to pop up, in absence of anything else out
there and so it did yesterday, once Europe
well home. Markets were in corrective mood anyway and once the lack of advance
bemoaned by the Senate majority leader, we witnessed a 0.5% drop, 0.3% rebound
and final 0.4% drop with the INDU closing weakest (-0.7% against S&P’s
-0.5%, but back below the 1400-mark, and the NASDAQ a mere -0.3%). Nothing life
threatening eventually and a fall-out much more limited than the 2.9% drop on
07 Nov, which was then followed by a further 3% decline before bottoming out
and the rebounding on 16 Nov.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Asia
subsequently lower with Japan
down 1.3% (on a Yen that finally stopped weakening), China
still drifting lower (1% in Shanghai, but with
Shenzhen getting slammed ever stronger) and the rest of Asia
merely giving back yesterday’s gains.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Up
to here, nothing seems to burn too much (although Mainland China looks
definitively bleak, chart-wise, the larger CSI being now on right on 38.2%-mark
of the Nov 2008 low – Aug 2009 high. A break would then take us back the Aug
2008 lows at 1607, for Fibonacci fans. That’s a 25%-slide…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish
Retail Oct still depressed at -9.7% MoM sa / 8.4% YoY (from rev. -11% /
-12.7%). Slightly better, but off such lows, who would care?</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Yesterday
evening saw the publication of French Unemployment figures above forecast with
now over 3.1m jobseekers, a net change of over 45k (fcst +28.6k). Never had
that many since April 1998… Up from a low point of 1.98m in Feb 2008.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bit
of a Risk Off start into the day, shown mainly by EGBs performing against
equities and a weaker EUR.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds
1.40% (-3), alongside USTs at 1.62 (-3, as well). 5 YRS OBLs likewise 3 tighter
to 0.42%, ahead of the (smaller) auction later in the morning with Schätze back
to the ZIRP-mark of 0.000%. Not adverse spill-over into the Periphery with Italy flat and Spain managing to squeeze through
the 5.50%-mark at 5.49% (-2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Credit
the one tick or two wider it gained yesterday (against equities 0.2% correction).
Equities down 0.2%, outperforming slightly the US close, bouncing off on about
yesterday’s lows and Friday morning levels. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Fiscal
Cliff? Bah. I saw you comin’.</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Commodities
just a tad lighter with the EUR unchanged at 1.293.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EZ
M3, and who would care normally, surging (and there goes your rate cut) 3.9%
YoY (fcst 2.8% after rev. 2.6%). Bit of a shocker! Oct Private Sector Loan
production still dipping on all counts, but for Home Purchases.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Still,
a hiccup that pushed equities down to -0.5% and, in turn, EGBs further tighter.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Additional EUR 3bn were sold in German 5
YRS at 0.41% (COB 0.45%. Last auctions were at 0.42% early Nov and 0.53% mid
Oct). Short of EUR 500m retained for market intervention. B/C on the higher
side, knowing that never such a small auction size had been targeted before.</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 7.5bn in Italian 6m bills sold at
0.919% (last 1.347% one month ago). This is the first time Italian 6m bills
were sold below 1% since Aug 2010. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">All is
good!</i> All time lows were around 0.55% between Jul 2009 and Mar 2010. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">All is good!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">We will close government supply for
November tomorrow with EUR 3bn each of on-the-run 5 YRS (COB 3.385%, last 3.80%
last month) and 10 YRS (COB 4.585%, last 4.81% - for off-the-runs - mid Nov and
4.92% one month ago). Last month’s on-the-run auction had been for EUR 7bn.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Too
bad the market squeezed over 10bp tighter during the afternoon. Won’t help
Primary Dealers, but, hey…</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">German CPI as expected at +2.0% YoY / -0.1%
MoM (after +2.1% / +0.1%), EU harmonized.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish Bank Bailout on its way with EUR
37bn needed, next to some private / retail burden-sharing, asset-shedding,
branch-shedding, job-shedding… Bad Bank still seemingly state-owned, as private
interests stepping up (on their own) seem rather light. Still, Spain muddling
through for the moment, good back-wind, and not even “OMT? We’re still
thinking…” mumbled lately and obviously not asked anymore. For the moment.<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"> Thanks who? Thanks Mario!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Midday picture still showing a strong EGB backdrop,
through the curve, with Spain
especially strong.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,39% (-4), OBLs 0,41% (-4), BKOs
-0,007% (-2). UST at 1,62% (-3) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,76% (-12), 10s at 5,42%
(-9). 2-10 YRS spread 266bp (+3). Italian 2s at 1,74% (-4), 10s at 4,66% (-6).
2-10 YRS spread 292bp (-2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities down a quarter. Credit +2/4
(1.6-2.5%). Commodities down a small 0.5%. EUR 1.29 figure. And now?</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not much going on. Drifting.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Noting the increasingly strong bids for
bonds, nearing once more historic lows for swaps printed 2 weeks ago (14 Nov). Belgium hitting
new lows at 2.20%. France
(Downgrade<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">? What downgrade?</i>) on its
lows at 2.055%. 10 YRS EFSF quoted below 2%. Austria at 1.75%...</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain</span><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">
re-entering the rarely broken 5.00-5.50%-area, as Italy is in the similarly symbolic
4.50-4.75% area, that is Spring 2011 levels. Likewise with Italian 5s now
around 3.50% with the historic (short-lived) low just above 2.50%, but with 3%
rather a floor and a 5-year average at 3.90%. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Thanks who? Thanks Mario!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All
is Good!</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Some wild activity in Precious Metals with Gold down 2% since the arrival of US
accounts, Silver and Platinum following, weighting on Oil and Copper.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US cash open down 0.5% from US close,
-0.75% from European COB, pulling European Risk lower and confirming EGB
action. Not that very specific reasons seem to abound here.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">New Home Sales missing (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Thank you, Sandy</i>) 390k estimates with
368k after 389k revised lower to 369k, -03% after revised +0.8% MoM. Eventually
static.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Had a nice round of Fiscal Cliff Ping-Pong,
just right in time to keep the US from sinking too low, triggering a rebound to
about closing levels in Europe – and supporting the ROn mood in the Periphery.
Good old classic. If there’s nothing to break the squeeze, step aside: awesome
parallel shift in both curves.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Baroso and Co. trying to gate-crash Nordic
willingness to help out Greece to re-re-re-pitch Common Bonds (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Nein!</i>), at least Bills (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Nein! Nein! Nein!) (Germany is already to forego
some EUR 730m million in ”revenues” next year on Greece. Note the elegant way avoiding
the “haircut” word…) </i>under the moniker of “<a href="http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-12-1272_en.htm?locale=en" target="_blank">Launching a debate on a deep and genuine Economic and Monetary Union</a>”. Ok, before Treaty
changes go through, there will be plenty of time to finish the EU budget
discussion… Not tomorrow’s business.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Never mind the 1% equity rebound in an hour
to close up over a quarter (fickle shorts), EGBs steaming ahead (outperforming UST with a 5 YRS auction later) and
barely correcting in the close. That is for ALL. Soft Core compressed to historic lows.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,37% (-6), OBLs at 0,39%
(-6) and BKOs -0,012% (-2,5). UST at 1,62% (-3) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,69% (-19), 10s at 5,31% (-20).
2-10 YRS spread 263bp (unch). Italian 2s at 1,66% (-12), 10s at 4,59% (-13).
2-10 YRS spread 292bp (-2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Nearly unchanged curves in the Periphery.
Note Spain back through 400 to Bunds! And nearing its late lows around 5.25% of
19 Oct.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR closing unchanged, in absence of a
better idea. Commodities still shaken by Precious Metals (Gold down $25,
-1.6%), but recovering from their LOD.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Once more, not much own stuff to
chew on Europe’s own.
Drifting. EGBs very strong on (relative) equity weakness. Periphery starting to
glow like the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ZZ Top Eliminator</i>. In
absence of any strong lead, need to start thanking everyone for input and
support (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Mario, Ben, Angie, Chrissie…
Anyone working on the Fiscal Cliff. Mariano & Mario. Wolfie...</i>). New
paradigm put into practice: nothing will ever be weak again, nothing. And watch
out for FC Ping-Pong! <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">And I Thank You!</i></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Drifting and thankful for anything
happening. EZ Confidence numbers tomorrow. German Unemployment (fcst unchanged
6.9%). Italian auction at latest lows. US Q3 GDP revision, Claims fcst +390k
after 410k, Pending Home Sales fcst +1% MoM after +0.3%. Any shifts to be
blamed on Sandy (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Thanks</i>) and everyone
would be <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">thankful</i> for Fiscal Cliff
resolution.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2509/2453, DAX 7272/7087, CAC 3446/3411, MIB 15563/15082, IBEX 7833/7486.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13232/13131/12993, S&P 1424/1408/1384, NASDAQ 3034/3018/2986 with AAPL
100/200d at 626/599.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.290, 100d 1.269 & 200d
1.280. Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at
1.273& 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).Jul 2012 to Sep rebound levels: 1.231 –
1.247 – 1.261 – 1.274 – 1.291 -1.317 .</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">The New Issues activity remained sustained,
as well as diversified, with AT&T raising EUR 1bn 8 YRS at MS +80, Italians
Lottomatica EUR 500m March 2020s at MS +235 and Finmeccanica EUR 600m 5 YRS at
MS +365, Allied Irish for an Irish-jurisdiction 3 YRS covered bond of EUR 500m
at MS +270. Swedbank with EUR 500m 10YRS nc5 LT2 at MS +215 on the financial
sub side. Land Hessen-guaranteed WIBank sold an inaugural EUR 500 10 YRS
benchmark at MS +17.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Forgot to mention yesterday’s IPIC (International
Petroleum Investment Co) 3-tranche deal with, next to USD 750m 3 YRS at MS
+135, saw EUR 800m May 2018 sold at MS+145 and EUR 850m May 2023s at MS +195.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,37% (-6);
Luxembourg 1,49% (-6); Netherlands 1,60% (-7); Finland 1,60% (-7); Swaps 1,68%
(-5); EU 1,71% (-6), Austria 1,74% (-6); EIB 1,88% (-6); EFSF 2,00% (-6);
France 2,05% (-7); Belgium 2,20% (-5); Italy 4,59% (-13); Spain 5,31% (-20).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 12bp (unch);
Netherlands 23bp (-1); Finland 23bp (-1); Swaps 31bp (+1); EU 34bp (unch); Austria
37bp (unch); EIB 51bp (unch); EFSF 63bp (unch); France 68bp (-1); Belgium 83bp
(+1); Italy 322bp (-7); Spain 394bp (-14).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 45bp (-2,0); 5-10
YRS 82bp (-1,0) 10-30 YRS 63bp (+1,0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,012% (-2,5) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,39% (-6).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main +1 to 125 (0,8% wider); Financials +3
to 166 (1,8% wider); Cross +5 to 508 (1,0% wider).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2547 / +0,4% (from 2538)
with S&P minis at 1399 (-0,2% from 1402, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 16,1 after 15,3 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 86,4/109,1 (WTI/Brent) from 87,1/109,6
(-0,8%/-0,5%). Gold at 1717 after 1745 (-1,6%). Copper eventually unchanged at
353. CRB at EU COB unchanged at 298.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">BDIY, still on the rise, slowly but
steadily, up 7 ticks to 1104. Target 1162-high seen in July, post-Chinese New Year
slide (5.25% away).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,293 from 1,293</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">guesstimate</i>:
Greek bonds closing unchanged in 2023s at 16.25% and 12.75% (-25) for 2042s.
Twisted. Where Friday closing prices meant to be the bid, the offer or the mid
in a <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">lately- EUR 1m-a-day-average-turnover</i>
market???</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European end of month data drought.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Need to see whether housing will really
turn around the economy.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Govie supply: Thu Italian bonds.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US Thu $29bn 7 YRS</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Thu Biz Climate and Consumer Conf; Fri
CPI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Thu Unemployment; Fri Retail Sales</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Fri PPI and Consumer Spending</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Thu Biz Conf; Fri Unemployment, CPI
& PPI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Thu Housing Permits; Fri CPI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Thu Q3 GDP revision 2,
Claims, Pending Home Sales; Fri Personal Income & Spending, NAPM and
Chicago PM.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">You
didn't have to squeeze me but you did</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">But
you did but you did</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">And
I thank you.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/IqYugOLrDL0" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
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<![endif]-->A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-82126549472662647512012-11-27T18:11:00.002+01:002012-11-27T18:29:44.933+01:0027 Nov 2012 – “ You Ain’t Seen Nothin' Yet ” (Bachman-Turner Overdrive, 1974)<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<br />
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">27 Nov 2012 – “ You Ain’t Seen Nothin' Yet ” (Bachman-Turner
Overdrive, 1974)</span></b></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/uA05cULpFmk" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Ok.
It’s not that the Greek deal is nothing. But then again, third strike.
Eventually expected, or at least hoped for. Hence, lack of concrete
follow-through. So, now it’s there. And now what? You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet?
What is there to see??? Pitch the markets some input, something concrete, something
to feed off, something to see!</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">"You Ain't Seen Nothin' Yet"
(Bunds 1,43% +2; Spain 5,51% -9; Stoxx 2538 -0,2%; EUR 1,293 -30)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">---</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">While
the US markets trended lower at open on Monday, on some profit-taking and on
yet-to-be finalized Greece jitters, they eventually got back in shape and
closed at their highs, even if still slightly negative for the Dow and the
S&P (just a tick below its 50d average).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">A
Greek deal was secured overnight, with obviously everyone stretching to make
ends meet. This, in turn, was duly noted in the overnight session, although
markets ended mixed overall (Japan
up a little, ASEA & Oz up to 1% higher) with China closing once more on the weak
side. Shanghai down 1.3%, through the symbolic 2000-mark and at the lowest
since 23 Jan 2009 (1990.7, just ahead of the Chinese New Year 2009), and
Shenzhen even down over 3%. Still chewing on the implications of the new
leaders’ reduced long-term growth targets (below 7.5%).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Note
the divergences with the S&P closing at 832 (+69%) that 23 Jan 2009 and EStoxx 2148
(+19%), the Nikkei 7745 (+22%), KOSPI 1093 (+76%), China-depended Oz 3343
(+33%)… Ok, a last one: Foxconn 2.67 (3.85 today, +44%) and Apple then 88,
yesterday 589 (+569%). CNY then 6.85, today 6.22. So the currency is not the
main factor.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Ok,
this is totally non-scientific with tons of other implications, I know. Still.
Yes. There’s a lot of good things to be said about being the world’s
manufacturer, but obviously, for plenty of reasons, it doesn’t make anyone
richer – at least not in the Chinese equity market.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Again,
not much of macro data at hand. French Consumers beating the odds with
Confidence unchanged at 84 (fcst 83). Finnish Biz Confidence still sinking,
down to -14 from -11, revised -12,
a level unseen since the end of 2009. Lots of weak
numbers from the North lately. Might as well explain the Finns harder stance
towards supporting and footing the bill of weaker EZ sovereigns. It’s cold out
there…</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Risk On</span></i><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> start of the European session, although the EUR spiked (much) higher
(just above 1.30) in Asia after the Greek news
before coming back to Earth.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Initial
strong push lower of German Bund futures (from yesterday’s 142.45 down to
141.84 before regaining some Prussian composure). Likewise for equities with
early morning short liquidations in futures ripping European equities nearly 1%
higher, before giving back half the gains.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Still,
half an hour into the cash session, Bunds were quoted 3bp wider (1.44%) with
other EGBs 1-2 wider, Italy
flat at 4.75% and Spain
a tick tighter at 5.59%. Credit 3 ticks (2%) tighter. Commodities sluggishly
mixed, with Oil up 0.75%, Copper +0.3% (despite the Chinese sell-off) and Gold
flat, just below 1750. EUR eventually just a little better at 1.297 (up 10 pips
from closing levels).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Greek
bonds obviously on the rise.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">To
round up EZ–supportive news, the EU High Court validated the legality of the
ESM. Given the weight of the contingent liability (as pointed out by Moody’s on
France’s
downgrade), it’s a wonder Core EGBs are still holding.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Then
again, all this is more confirmation of expected actions and most already
priced in, explaining why markets balanced out within an hour, waiting for the
next lead.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Today’s auction supply was courtesy first
of the Dutch with EUR 2.4bn Dutch 3 YRS at 0.129% (COB 0.135%). Had indicated
up to EUR 3bn, but Dutch (tap) auctions tend to be a little tight-fisted and
often cut off early. No sign of lack of demand, especially with a tighter price
than in the close (with the Schatz out 2bp at that time).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
sold the targeted EUR 3.5bn 2 YRS Zeroes at 1.923% (last 2.397% in Oct), next
to EUR 1bn in ILBs. Those CTZ printed at their tightest levels in over two year
(CTZ jumped from 1.77% to 2.31% in Oct 2010, hitting their 7.81% post-EUR
introduction high one year later in Nov 2011).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Finally, slightly over the targeted EUR 4bn
were sold in Spanish 3 & 6m bills at 1.254% and 1.669% (last 1.415% and
2.023% one month ago). Ok, we’re still miles away from the pre-crisis and
pre-pre-crisis lows (2012 low in 6m was 0.76% in Feb and were in the 0.50% mid
2010), but have now more than halved from the highs. Glass perspective – either
half full or half empty.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Having failed to settle its own rating
question after last weeks’ France downgrade, the EFSF decided to relay its 3
YRS project by a 1-year “benchmark”, raising its biggest ever deal with EUR 7
YRS 12m at 0.22% (compared to 6m bills raised at -0.0053% one week ago).</span><span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Tomorrow will see additional EUR 3bn in
German 5 YRS (COB 0.45%. Last 0.42% early Nov and 0.53% mid Oct), next to EUR
7.5bn in Italian 6m bills (last 1.347% one month ago).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">We will close the week with EUR 3bn each of
on-the-run 5 and 10 YRS in Italy (last 3.80% end of Oct, respectively 4.81% -
for off-the-run 10s- mid Nov and 4.92% last month). Last month’s on-the-run
auction had been for EUR 7bn.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%; mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">OECD
on the cautious side for everyone. Yes. Ok. Sure… Oh, and the ECB ought to cut
rates. Oh. Yes. Sure.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">End of morning gradually sliding back to
closing levels with Bunds only marginally wider and most of the EGB curve
nearing unchanged again, as equities fell back to closing levels.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Midday on mid-morning levels. EGBs by and
large unchanged with Bunds bearing the brunt of what remained of the morning <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROn</i>. Spain doing well on a Oct budget
balance of EUR -43.4bn (from minus EUR 46.1bn in Sep), next to the well
absorbed bills issue.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,43% (+2), OBLs 0,45% (+2) and BKOs
0,010% (+1,5). UST 1,66% (+2) .</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,89% (-9), 10s at 5,52%
(-8). 2-10 YRS spread 264bp (+2). Italian 2s at 1,80% (-1), 10s at 4,75% (unch).
2-10 YRS spread 295bp (+1)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities flat. Credit flattish. EUR
flattish. Commodities, too.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">US</span><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">
data on the positive side with Oct Durable Goods flat (fcst -0.7% after +9.9%,
rev. 9.2%), ex Trans even up 1.5% (fcst -0.5% after +2%, rev. +1.7%). Capital
Goods up 1.7% (fcst -0.5% after flat, rev. -0.4%). Case Shiller up 0.39% YoY
(fcst +0.4% after +0.49, rev. +0.42%).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">US cash open about flat 15 min into the
session, flooring dipping EZ equities.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Add US Consumer Confidence rising to 73.7
(fcst 73 after 72.2, rev. higher to 73.1) to balance<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>House prices rising only 0.2 in Sep (fcst +0.4 after
+0.7%, rev. lower to +0.5%) to have Risk balanced out. Richmond FED +9 (fcst
MINUS 9 after -7).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Pfff… So… Ah… European equities just down a
little, little. EGBs a little, little softer – mainly out of principle, rather
than conviction. 3 days of supply all along the curve in the US a reason to
remain on the safe side for the moment. Soft Core tigther in Hard-Soft
compression, with Spain pushing from behind (-9 across the curve).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,43% (+2), OBLs at 0,45%
(+3) and BKOs 0,012% (+1,7). UST at 1,65% (+1) COB.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,88% (-10), 10s at 5,51%
(-9). 2-10 YRS spread 263bp (+1). Italian 2s at 1,78% (-3), 10s at 4,72% (-3).
2-10 YRS spread 294bp (unch)</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR eventually retreating a little.
Commodities still <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">yawn</i>!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Ok. It’s not that the Greek deal
is nothing. But then again, third strike. Eventually expected, or at least hoped
for. Hence, lack of concrete follow-through. So, now it’s there. And now what? <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">You Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet? </i>What is
there to see??? Pitch the markets some input, something concrete, something to feed
off, something to see!</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: Ah. Pfff… Let’s wait for further
details on the Greek buy-back. US New Home sales.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Otherwise, as mentioned last week: All is
good, unless, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">that is, if not… (</i>paste any given possible worry or fundamental
flaw<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">) resurfaces…</i></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2510/2450, DAX 7272/7078, CAC 3447/3407, MIB 15575/15065, IBEX 7837/7474.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13245/13132/12993, S&P 1426/1407/1384, NASDAQ 3038/3018/2986 with AAPL
100/200d at 626/598.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.291, 100d 1.267& 200d 1.280.
Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at 1.273&
1.315, then 1.349 (50%).Jul 2012 to Sep rebound levels: 1.231 – 1.247 – 1.261 –
1.274 – 1.291 -1.317 .</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Again quite some traffic in New Issues
land: Next to the EUR 7bn (increased from initially EUR 5bn) 12m at 0.22% for
the EFSF, French BPCE raised EUR 1.75bn 2 YRS FRN at 3mE +50 (after last week’s
BNPP deal at 3mE +43), German Land NRW raised EUR 1.5bn 5 YRS at MS +7, Credit
Mutuel Arkea raised yet another 2 YRS FRN for EUR 750m at 3mE +45. Corporate
ware from Vivendi with EUR 700m long 7 YRS at MS +130, next to carmakers VW with
EUR 300m 3 YRS at MS+40 and Renault with a EUR 250m increase of the outstanding
Sep 2017 benchmark at MS +396<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>or 4.825%.
Finally, Periphery issuers were represented by Portuguese Caixa Geral with EUR
500m 3 YRS at 5.75%.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,43% (+2);
Luxembourg 1,55% (+1); Netherlands 1,67% (+1); Finland 1,67% (+1); Swaps 1,73%
(+1); EU 1,77% (+1), Austria 1,80% (-2); EIB 1,94% (+1); EFSF 2,06% (+1);
France 2,12% (-2); Belgium 2,25% (-2); Italy 4,72% (-3); Spain 5,51% (-9).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 12bp (-1);
Netherlands 24bp (-1); Finland 24bp (-1); Swaps 30bp (-1); EU 34bp (-1);
Austria 37bp (-4); EIB 51bp (-1); EFSF 63bp (-1); France 69bp (-4); Belgium
82bp (-4); Italy 329bp (-5); Spain 408bp (-11).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 47bp (unch); 5-10
YRS 83bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 62bp (unch).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed 0,012% (+1,7) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,45% (+3).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Main -1 to 124 (-0,8% tighter); Financials
-3 to 163 (-1,8% tighter); Cross -8 to 503 (-1,6% tighter).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2538 / -0,2% (from 2542)
with S&P minis at 1402 (+0,4% from 1397, at European close).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 15,3 after 15,8 yesterday same
time.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 87,1/109,6 (WTI/Brent) from 87,4/110,4
(-0,3%/-0,7%). Gold at 1745 after 1749 (-0,3%). Copper unchanged at 353 from
353. CRB at EU COB 298,0 from 299,0 (-0,3%).</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">BDIY, still on the rise, but really running
out of steam, up 3 ticks to 1097, from yesterday’s +4 ticks. Target 1162-high seen
in July, post-Chinese New Year slide.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,293 from 1,296</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">guesstimate</i>:
Greek bonds initial unchanged, then firmer with 2023s closing 16.25% (-12.5) and
13.00% (down 50bp) unchanged for 2042s. Nearing last week(s tightest levels, as
buy-back conditions are said to be Friday’s close. But, hell; who really knows
what Friday’s close is for good with bonds quoted 1 to 2 points bid-offer???</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">European end of month data drought.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Need to see whether housing will really
turn around the economy.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Govie supply: Wed EUR 3bn OBLs in Germany
& Italian bills. Thu Italian bonds.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">US Wed $35bn 5 YRS and Thu $29bn 7 YRS</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Wed M3; Thu Biz Climate and Consumer
Conf; Fri CPI</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Wed CPI fcst 2% after 2.1%; Thu
Unemployment; Fri Retail Sales</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Wed Unemployment; Fri PPI and Consumer
Spending</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Thu Biz Conf; Fri Unemployment, CPI
& PPI</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Wed Retail Sales fcst -10.7% after
-10.9%; Thu Housing Permits; Fri CPI</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Wed New Home Sales & Beige Book;
Thu Q3 GDP 2<sup>nd</sup> revision, Claims, Pending Home Sales; Fri Personal
Income & Spending, NAPM and Chicago PM.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></div>
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I
ain't seen nothin' yet</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">I'll
wait, I'll wait, I'll wait</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">If
you want to show me what I ain't seen, where I ain't been</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Lalalalalala</span></i></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle">
<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Owowowowowowo</span></i></div>
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<a href="http://youtu.be/uA05cULpFmk" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
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<a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-family: "Verdana","sans-serif"; font-size: 10.0pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></div>
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<![endif]-->A V F M Shttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17312335252493627767noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4951417695045867812.post-30483850512096846132012-11-26T17:55:00.000+01:002012-11-26T17:56:18.429+01:0026 Nov 2012 – “ Sailing ” (Rod Stewart, 1975)<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
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<div class="MsoNormalCxSpFirst" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="color: red; font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">26 Nov 2012 – “ Sailing ” (Rod Stewart, 1975)</span></b></span></div>
<div style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="mso-bookmark: OLE_LINK1;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"><a href="http://youtu.be/Bpbuqh12oj4" target="_blank">Music Link</a></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Hard
pressed to find anything remotely exciting today. Equities losing a little
shine, but understandable given last week’s 5% rush (and 14% tightening in
Credit). Bonds stuck in range. Fiscal Cliff hailing back (in yet rather timid
manner, though). Waiting on Greek rescue revelations. Yawn!</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">"Sailing" (Bunds 1,41% -3; Spain
5,6% unch; Stoxx 2542 -0,4%; EUR 1,296 unch)</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span lang="EN-US" style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">---</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not much going on over the weekend. US equities closed up a further 0.3% after Europe went home in yet another shortened session, in
order to go shopping. Divergent views of whether Black Friday was good or not,
but obviously, if BF itself was a little below expectations, it’s because the
whole thing has morphed into an extended <i>Black Weekend</i> and weekend numbers look like
plenty of shopping got done.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fiscal Cliff potentially back into the
limelight with some US politico recognition that not much had been done so far
(since the, then well-timed, Boehner intervention Friday, 10 days ago, which
turned around markets).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Asian session muted with the Nikkei only
gaining 0.25% today (…). Rest mixed. China still on the heavier side,
though. Looks like future annual growth targets might be taken down to +7.5%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek pre-session #3 pre-huddles looking to
get things done by tonight. Or not… Catalan separatist vote strong, however
only on a combined basis, with Mas losing some support. Might just be unruly,
after all.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish mortgages still plunging (-35.3%
after -33.2% in mortgage-capital loaned). Italian Oct Retail Sales slightly
disappointing at +4.3% MoM / +3.3% YoY (fcst +4.6% / +3.6% after -1.3% /
+3.1%). German Consumer Confidence less upbeat than last week’s IFO numbers at
5.9 (fcst 6.2 after 6.3 rev. 6.1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Slightest Risk Off-start of the week, but
just so. Bunds picking up some colour (alongside USTs in Asia),
down 2 bp to 1.42% (1.67%) with the other EGBs sluggishly following. Equities a
wee bit lower with first Credit quotes out by a tick or two. Italy and Spain a tick wider. EUR 1.297. Not
much to write home about…</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Getting a little more <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROff</i> with markets slowly drifting lower with equities off a
quarter, Credit ticking a little wider, as did Periphery bonds. No specific
trigger. Given last week’s performance, not a huge surprise per se.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">We had the last auction out of Belgium for
2012 with the targeted EUR 3.2bn sold with EUR 655m 3.500% Jun 2017 at 0.935%
(COB 0.98% and last 1.08% end of Oct), EUR 759m 4.000% Mar 2019 at 1.374% (COB
1.435%), EUR 926m 3.000% Sep 2019 at 1.582% (COB 1.640%) and finally EUR 855m
4.250% Sep 2022 at 2.22% (COB 2.290% and last 2.42% end of Oct). Nice prices,
well overbid compared to the Friday close. All bonds done on historical auction
lows (and near last week’s all-time lows).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 3bn 12m bills out of Germany at
-0.0085% (last -0.0095%), as well as the weekly French 3, 6 and 12m bills for
nearly EUR 6.8bn at -0.02%, -0.01% and +0.019% (all about unchanged) to round
up today’s supply.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">We’ll have up to EUR 3bn Dutch 3 YRS
tomorrow (COB 0.135%), next to EUR 4bn Spanish 3 & 6m bills (last 1.415%
and 2.023% one month ago).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy announced this week’s funding
programme with EUR 3.5bn 2 YRS Zeroes tomorrow (last 2.397% in Oct), next to
EUR 1bn in ILBs, EUR 7.5bn 6m bills on Wednesday (last 1.347% one month ago)
and bonds (details not yet announced) on Thursday. Tomorrow’s CTZ should
normally print at their tightest levels in over two year (CTZ jumped from 1.77%
to 2.31% in Oct 2010, hitting their 7.81% post-EUR introduction high one year
later in Nov 2011. 3 LTROs and 1 OMT later...).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 3bn additional German 5 YRS on Wed.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Midday on mid-morning levels. EGBs a tick
firmer for choice, but just so. Periphery a tick wider. Not much happening.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds 1,42% (-2), OBLs at 0,43% (unch) and
BKOs -0,005% (-0,2). UST 1,67% (-2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,98% (+2), 10s at 5,62% (+2).
2-10 YRS spread 264bp (unch). Italian 2s at 1,85% (+3), 10s at 4,76% (+1). 2-10
YRS spread 291bp (-1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Equities down 0.5%, Credit 3 ticks wider
(+2.%).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1.297. Commodities flat from Friday’s
close.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Waiting for the US view of things and input
with no early figures to kick-start the week.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Getting a little more pressure with US
accounts coming in after lunch, but with the softness concentrated mainly on
equities.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US cash open in line with futures, slightly
below the level of European COB, thus stabilizing European equities there,
although UST are on the firmer side at 1.65 (-4).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Not much on Greece outside that OSI is
supposedly rejected by all but one EUR member (...)(<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Hey, worth a try, no</i>?). Question is how bespoke and on what
conditions will this latest round of brinkmanship be?</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bank of England getting <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">maple-leaved</i> and <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">squidded</i> (…).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bit of end of day wariness with the Dow
nowhere near the 13-handle. European stocks about back on Thursday evening
levels (except Germany), basically in sync with the US. Credit correcting last
week’s excesses, 3% wider across the curve. Crossover back above 500.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EGBs holding ok, but not looking overly
eager either. Hard Core 3 tighter, Soft 2 tighter. Periphery flat. Belgium
still 13 over France. Greek bonds about unchanged.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Bunds closed at 1,41% (-3), OBLs at 0,42%
(-1) and BKOs -0,005% (-0,2). UST at 1,64% (-5) COB.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spanish 2s at 2,98% (+2), 10s at 5,60%
(unch). 2-10 YRS spread 262bp (-2). Italian 2s at 1,81% (-1), 10s at 4,75%
(unch). 2-10 YRS spread 294bp (+2).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR barely moving, tightest of range.
Commodities <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">yawn</i>!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Bunds still sluggishly trading on
the lower end of their range (1.13% - 2.07% between retracements at 1.35%,
where they remained stuck for a week a fortnight ago, and then 1.49% and 1.60%.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Take-away: Hard pressed to find anything
remotely exciting today. Equities losing a little shine, but understandable
given last week’s 5% rush (and 14% tightening in Credit). Bonds stuck in range.
Fiscal Cliff hailing back (in yet rather timid manner, though). Waiting on
Greek rescue revelations. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Yawn</i>!</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Outlook: The Italian zeroes should
normally print at the tightest levels in over two year (CTZ jumped from 1.77%
to 2.31% in Oct 2010, hitting their 7.81% post-EUR introduction high one year
later in Nov 2011). Spanish bills shouldn’t rattle the market. EGBs caught in
range. Dropping shoes Risk on the short –term solely out of Greece or on the US Fiscal Cliff.
Macro numbers mainly in the US
with Durable Goods (<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Could rise on Sandy</i>), Housing
(Case-Shiller and House Prices) and Consumer Confidence.</span> <span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Need
to see whether housing will really turn around the economy.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Otherwise, as mentioned on Friday: All is
good, unless, <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">that is, if not… (</i>paste any given possible worry or fundamental
flaw<i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">) resurfaces…</i></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European 50 & 100d averages: EStoxx
2510/2447, DAX 7274/7069, CAC 3448/3404, MIB 15594/15048, IBEX 7843/7462.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US 50, 100 & 200d averages: INDU
13253/13131/12993, S&P 1426/1407/1383, NASDAQ 3041/3017/2985 with AAPL
100/200d at 626/598.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR: 50d 1.291, 100d 1.267 & 200d
1.280. Fibo retracement (of May 2011 1.494 & Jul 2012 1.204 down-leg) at
1.273& 1.315, then 1.349 (50%).Jul 2012 to Sep rebound levels: 1.231 –
1.247 – 1.261 – 1.274 – 1.291 -1.317 .</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Quite some traffic in New Issues after last
week slightly lacklustre activity (given the general <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">ROn</i> spirit), especially in corporates, with BASF for EUR 1bn 10 YRS
at MS +40, BMW EUR 750m Jun 2018s at MS +53, Belgian utility EANDIS for EUR
500m 10 YRS at MS +115 and even non-IG FIAT with a EUR 400m increase of an
outstanding Oct 2016, priced at 7.40% (ca. MS +670). Coventry BS with EUR 500m
senior 5 YRS at MS +145. BBVA in Spanish covered bonds for a chunky EUR 2bn 5
YRS at MS +260 (some 90 <b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;">through</b>
Spain). Muencher Hypo EUR 500m 2 YRS at MS -20, a
pricing reminiscent of past years of glory and credit folly. Land Niedersachsen
for a EUR 150m increase of an outstanding Sep 2019 at MS +4.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome.</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Closing
levels:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Yields: Germany 1,41% (-3);
Luxembourg 1,54% (-1); Netherlands 1,66% (-3); Finland 1,66% (-3); Swaps 1,72%
(-2); EU 1,76% (-2), Austria 1,82% (-2); EIB 1,93% (-1); EFSF 2,05% (-2);
France 2,14% (-2); Belgium 2,27% (-2); Italy 4,75% (unch); Spain 5,60% (unch).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">10 YRS Spreads: Luxembourg 13bp (+2);
Netherlands 25bp (unch); Finland 25bp (unch); Swaps 31bp (+1); EU 35bp (+1);
Austria 41bp (+1); EIB 52bp (+2); EFSF 64bp (+1); France 73bp (+1); Belgium
86bp (+1); Italy 334bp (+3); Spain 419bp (+3).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR swap curve 2-5 YRS 47bp (-1,0); 5-10 YRS
83bp (unch) 10-30 YRS 62bp (+1,0).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">2 YRS German BKOs closed -0,005% (-0,2) and
5 YRS OBLs 0,42% (-1).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Main +4 to 125 (3,3% wider); Financials +5
to 166 (3,1% wider); Cross +15 to 511 (3,0% wider).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Stoxx Futures at 2542 / -0,4% (from 2552)
with S&P minis at 1397 (-0,4% from 1402, at European close).</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">VIX index at 15,8 after 15,1 yesterday same
time.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Oil 87,4/110,4 (WTI/Brent) from 88,2/111,0
(-0,9%/-0,5%). Gold +1 at 1749. Copper +1 at 353. CRB at EU COB +1 at 299.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">BDIY, still on the rise, but running out of
steam, up 4 ticks to 1094. Target 1162-high seen in July, post-Chinese New Year
slide.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EUR 1,296 from 1,296</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Greek <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">guesstimate</i>:
Greek bonds initial unchanged, then a little softer with 2023s a 16.375%<sup> </sup>and 13.50% unchanged for 2042s. Off last week’s tightest levels (about 16% and
13.25%), but still faring quite well.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">All levels COB 17:30 CET</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Fast-forward
Macro and Events:</span></b><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">European end of month data drought.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Busy data Tuesday in the US. Need to see
whether housing will really turn around the economy.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Govie supply: Tue EUR 3bn Dutch 3 YRS,
Spanish 6m bills, Italian 2 YRS zeroes. Wed EUR 3bn OBLs in Germany &
Italian bills. Thu Italian bonds.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US Tue $35bn 2 YRS, Wed $35bn 5 YRS and Thu
$29bn 7 YRS</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">EC: Tue OECD outlook; Wed M3; Thu Biz
Climate and Consumer Conf; Fri CPI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">GE: Wed CPI fcst 2% after 2.1%; Thu
Unemployment; Fri Retail Sales</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">FR: Tue Consumer Conf fcst 83 after 84; Wed
Unemployment; Fri PPI and Consumer Spending</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Italy: Tue Wages; Thu Biz Conf; Fri
Unemployment, CPI & PPI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Spain: Tue Budget Balance; Wed Retail Sales
fcst -10.7% after -10.9%; Thu Housing Permits; Fri CPI</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">US: Durable Goods fcst -0.8% after +9.8%,
Case Schiller, House Px +0.4%after +0.7% MoM & Consumer Confidence fcst +73
after 72.2; Wed New Home Sales & Beige Book; Thu Q3 GDP 2<sup>nd</sup>
revision, Claims, Pending Home Sales; Fri Personal Income & Spending, NAPM
and Chicago PM.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Click
link under title or below for today’s musical support:</span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">I
am flying, I am flying,</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Like
a bird 'cross the sky.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Boring
day. Boring song. Although a nice one… The guitar player spicing up things is Paul Warren, a session
and studio veteran.</span></i></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://youtu.be/Bpbuqh12oj4" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Music Link</span></b></a><span class="MsoHyperlink"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com/" target="_blank"><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">http://www.aviewfrommyscreens.com</span></b></a><b style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal;"><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;"></span></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormalCxSpMiddle" style="text-align: justify;">
<span style="font-family: Verdana,sans-serif;"><a href="mailto:aviewfrommyscreens@gmail.com?subject=The%20View%20from%20your%20Screens..."><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">Don’t
hesitate to exchange with the author. All comments, suggestions, rants are
welcome</span></a><span style="font-size: 10pt; line-height: 115%;">.</span></span></div>
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